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  • #3,581
  • Feb 24, 2014 12:59pm Feb 24, 2014 12:59pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Tanks for the chart Srt. I am also waiting for the breakout. If we do breakout the dynamics have changed.
Olu,

I'm a terrible breakout trader so I took a chance the higher low would hold so currently long. Took partial profit.
  • #3,582
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:15pm Feb 24, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Tanks for the chart Srt. I am also waiting for the breakout. If we do breakout the dynamics have changed.
Sorry, I think I may have confused with the 2 charts in my post. The first chart is from last week's post with the higher low. The 2nd chart is the "update" from today. The breakout has occurred the way I see it. Line is now support.
  • #3,583
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:22pm Feb 24, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Sorry, I think I may have confused with the 2 charts in my post. The first chart is from last week's post with the higher low. The 2nd chart is the "update" from today. The breakout has occurred the way I see it. Line is now support.
I noted the update when I went to check out the chart. Massive gap up. We are in a full blown weather market right now. Well done on your trade Srt. Are you seeing what coffee is doing? I am now looking for a bit of retracement then 220! I checked out the options prices and it has gone haywire right now

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,584
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:28pm Feb 24, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I noted the update when I went to check out the chart. Massive gap up. We are in a full blown weather market right now. Well done on your trade Srt. Are you seeing what coffee is doing? I am now looking for a bit of retracement then 220! I checked out the options prices and it has gone haywire right now Olu
Coffee is pretty hard to believe. Very large oversupply (70% above normal) and suddenly a little dry weather in brazil & it seems all the coffee burned. I'm too frustrated that I took profits too soon so I'm going to let that one go. Yes, when the markets get volatile the options can be pretty crazy so look for the ones that seem to be priced poorly. Sugar is being affected by the same dry weather in brazil.

Nat. gas had a good pullback today. I'll be watching that one again to go long but only on more pullback, If I'm patient :-)
  • #3,585
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:36pm Feb 24, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Coffee is pretty hard to believe. Very large oversupply (70% above normal) and suddenly a little dry weather in brazil & it seems all the coffee burned. I'm too frustrated that I took profits too soon so I'm going to let that one go. Yes, when the markets get volatile the options can be pretty crazy so look for the ones that seem to be priced poorly. Sugar is being affected by the same dry weather in brazil. Nat. gas had a good pullback today. I'll be watching that one again to go long but only on more pullback, If I'm patient :-)

Frustrated are you? Same here. I was long Robusta coffee. Closed the trade and felt pretty cool then bam! upside explosion. That will teach me to stick to my trade plan. What all that rally would have dome to my account. Anyway we are only at the end of month 2 of 2014. As long as we learn and not repeat the same mistakes...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,586
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:39pm Feb 24, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Frustrated are you? Same here. I was long Robusta coffee. Closed the trade and felt pretty cool then bam! upside explosion. That will teach me to stick to my trade plan. What all that rally would have dome to my account. Anyway we are only at the end of month 2 of 2014. As long as we learn and not repeat the same mistakes... Olu
Yes, I'm trying to hold onto positions longer. That's why some of my silver options are Jan. 2015 so I plan on being in this for quite a while. Took partial profits last week.
  • #3,587
  • Feb 24, 2014 4:06pm Feb 24, 2014 4:06pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Yes, I'm trying to hold onto positions longer. That's why some of my silver options are Jan. 2015 so I plan on being in this for quite a while. Took partial profits last week.

Well done Srt on the silver trade. The essence of this thread is to seek out and milk the trend till there is no more milk there to milk however long that might be. My trading duration has also increased since starting this thread but now and again I lapse back into short-termism and regret later. I am actually rubbish on shorter timeframes so the threat of my account disappearing always deters me from 15 min timeframe trading. So readers of the thread we are all about trend trading. please contribute anything that will help this aim.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,588
  • Feb 25, 2014 7:42am Feb 25, 2014 7:42am
Quoting srt
{quote} Coffee is pretty hard to believe. Very large oversupply (70% above normal) and suddenly a little dry weather in brazil & it seems all the coffee burned. I'm too frustrated that I took profits too soon so I'm going to let that one go. Yes, when the markets get volatile the options can be pretty crazy so look for the ones that seem to be priced poorly. Sugar is being affected by the same dry weather in brazil. Nat. gas had a good pullback today. I'll be watching that one again to go long but only on more pullback, If I'm patient :-)...
Getting a good pullback again today back to a good location. Possible long entry today.
  • #3,589
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:02am Feb 25, 2014 8:02am
Oil:

Possible time to go short?
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  • #3,590
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:28pm Feb 26, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting srt
Oil: Possible time to go short? {image}

Srt

I am looking forward to shorting crude oil if it lets us. My minimum expectancy for oil was for it to go over the recent 100 peak. So I am on the lookout for more downside
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,591
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:30pm Feb 26, 2014 12:30pm
Dollar is having a good day today. UsdChf is showing definite reversals on the daily and weekly timeframes. UsdCad is on upwards as well. GbpUsd has hit a wall at 1.6800. Aussie wall @9000. looking good for the US$. Nothing confirmed though

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,592
  • Feb 26, 2014 1:39pm Feb 26, 2014 1:39pm
Silver:

Looks like it might return to test the 20.50 area or the zone just above.
The COT report Friday was pretty bearish. JPM loaded up on the shorts again :-(
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  • #3,593
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:48pm Feb 26, 2014 4:48pm
Quoting srt
Silver: Looks like it might return to test the 20.50 area or the zone just above. The COT report Friday was pretty bearish. JPM loaded up on the shorts again :-( {image} {image}

Srt

Strength in the $ might be part reason for the retracement. I'm afraid if this move continues the upmove in commodities will be stymied

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,594
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:14pm Feb 26, 2014 9:14pm
Up for a little
Attached Image
  • #3,595
  • Feb 27, 2014 5:54am Feb 27, 2014 5:54am
Quoting TEB63
Up for a little {image}

Hi TEB63

Your chart shows that we the $ is not out of the woods yet. If it can move past the 8080 congestion area it becomes more interesting. more counterparts are down against the $ today so this upmove might have some legs. massive data day today though...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,596
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:49pm Feb 27, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi TEB63 Your chart shows that we the $ is not out of the woods yet. If it can move past the 8080 congestion area it becomes more interesting. more counterparts are down against the $ today so this upmove might have some legs. massive data day today though... Olu

I agree - we have decision point for the market - I try not to predict -

We will have to wait and see what the big boys are going to do !


Cheers
  • #3,597
  • Feb 27, 2014 6:11pm Feb 27, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} I agree - we have decision point for the market - I try not to predict - We will have to wait and see what the big boys are going to do ! Cheers
Thanks for your reply. I am primarily a trend trader and prefer to let the market declare where the market lows and highs are. The operative word is 'try'. When I see reversal signals I generally wait for follow through before stepping but sometimes the prospects of a better fill and entry overcome my patient demeanor and I jump in. Most od the time I regret the action later

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,598
  • Feb 27, 2014 6:13pm Feb 27, 2014 6:13pm
May Soybeans
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,599
  • Edited Feb 28, 2014 6:02am Feb 27, 2014 6:45pm | Edited Feb 28, 2014 6:02am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi Razi89, I agree with Olu on nat. gas. It's a buy on a good pullback. The problem right now is all the "hot money" from daytraders in this market because of the big moves recently. Moves of 10% each of the last 2 days is crazy. Best to let it settle down or be a short-term trader & get in & out quickly. I'll be looking to get back in on a spike lower. Could happen with these wild moves now. I'd like to see 4.40-4.45 for an entry. {image}
Nat. Gas:

Finally got to the 4.40-4.45 area I first looked at Jan. 30th. Took so long we're on a different contract (april) so the chart has a large gap from march to april changeover.
I took my first position today but small so I can add at lower levels. No sign of bottom yet but this market is a bit crazy so .........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,600
  • Feb 27, 2014 7:04pm Feb 27, 2014 7:04pm
Quoting Olu
May Soybeans {image}
Today's big move had to do with China news & the weekly export report. The export report was bullish so beans rallied then some unconfirmed news about China cancelations started circulating & beans sold off strong. Other bearish rumors out of south America helped with the selloff. I don't have a strong feeling either way so best to just play the chart. I'll stick with corn for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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