USD/JPY Discussion | Page 2181 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,601
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:07pm Feb 26, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting Orly
{quote} The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one: Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102. The next Monthly candle...
To the downside I see 98.61 and it is calling. If price doesn't get bullish above 102.80 and stay there then next month could get ugly. I am of the belief that price will get to 103+ and trap bulls before the hard crash. Daily says its going down. 1 hour and 4 hour says the set up is in action to go up.
  • #43,602
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:07pm Feb 26, 2014 9:07pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} When you talk negative: 105,00? or 100.00?

100.131 by the end of March.
  • #43,603
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:11pm Feb 26, 2014 9:11pm
Quoting Orly
100.131 by the end of March.
100.131??? Are you sure?

I was thinking 100.129, to be exact...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #43,604
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:16pm Feb 26, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} 100.131??? Are you sure? I was thinking 100.129, to be exact...

I generally don't wishy-washy much.

  • #43,605
  • Edited 9:37pm Feb 26, 2014 9:20pm | Edited 9:37pm
Quoting Trendzalore
To the downside I see 98.61 and it is calling. If price doesn't get bullish above 102.80 and stay there then next month could get ugly. I am of the belief that price will get to 103+ and trap bulls before the hard crash. Daily says its going down. 1 hour and 4 hour says the set up is in action to go up.
You may be right about UJ breaking 103+ as a bull trap. I could see that for sure. Just weeks ago I'd have said that 105 would break before 100, but I'm not so sure anymore.

The 1H and 4H charts mean nothing relative to the Monthly chart. It's all about perspective (hence why I use an MTF approach). Although the 1H and 4H charts are bullish, the Daily is (still) bearish, the Weekly is semi-bearish, and the Monthly is bearish.

Because the bigger time frames rule, that's painting a pretty bearish picture in my opinion, at least for the next few months. I am confident the bulls will eventually win though.

And, judging by the last hour, perhaps sooner than later...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #43,606
  • Feb 26, 2014 9:44pm Feb 26, 2014 9:44pm
Agreed. I have been caught in the trap enough to see one may be coming more times than not now.
  • #43,607
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:11pm Feb 26, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Orly
{quote} The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one: Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102. The next Monthly candle...
It's not jawboning, they're devaluing, very obvious: exports are rising, import prices going up, real wages are falling. Out of ammo? In the printing game you have unlimited ammo. Sure velocity of money has collapsed, but that doesn't mean the markets are running on vapors. The Yen is clearly trading on fundamentals down over 10% in the past year directly from BoJ easing. I'm really watching for shakeouts below 102 seeing them as buying opportunities.
  • #43,608
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:28pm Feb 26, 2014 10:28pm
For me to really consider long Yen, I would need to see a macro factor suggesting risk off.
  • #43,609
  • Feb 26, 2014 10:43pm Feb 26, 2014 10:43pm
On a monthly basis, since the early 90's here are the value levels. FV being near 107.38, very strong support at 98.20 region, overall a lot of attraction between 105-109.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.jpg Size: 197 KB
  • #43,610
  • Feb 26, 2014 11:06pm Feb 26, 2014 11:06pm
not doing anything until 102.62 or 101.99 is taken out...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,611
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:37am Feb 27, 2014 1:37am
For such little movement there has been an awful lot of posting while I was asleep

Thanks for all the analysis guys. I have struggled to see bearishness in the daily chart.
The weekly is sitting on 101.75 at the moment, discount the wicks and there has not been a close below that value this year.

Somebody wrote about stocks, main driver here is Nikkei imho, and not the SPX.
It is the end of the month, book-balancing will coincide nicely with Friday although there is still time for news to upset things.
Also it may be the end of Q1 next month that will drive harder than any particular month-end.

There are some global unrest factors coming to the surface.
If, for instance, the Ukraine gets ugly that could drive the Yen to strength.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,612
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:51am Feb 27, 2014 2:51am
Quoting Orly
{quote} The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one: Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102. The next Monthly candle...
Such a big piece of nonsense right there.
  • #43,613
  • Feb 27, 2014 2:58am Feb 27, 2014 2:58am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} Such a big piece of nonsense right there.

Thank you for your valuable input, as your analysis here is beyond reproach.
  • #43,614
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:18am Feb 27, 2014 3:18am
Quoting Orly
{quote} Thank you for your valuable input, as your analysis here is beyond reproach.
What's been said is said, I sincerely hope new traders here do not take your advices regarding fundamentals into account, which is simply misconfusing.

Cheers
  • #43,615
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:25am Feb 27, 2014 3:25am
Quoting PayTheLimit
not doing anything until 102.62 or 101.99 is taken out...

starting to consider shorts on a bounce toward 102.32/38...but again, think its best to wait for a breach of 101.99 first...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #43,616
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:34am Feb 27, 2014 3:34am
hah...I think you're in a psychological trap...if the price stoppes and turns down, everybody will be hardcore bear, and when it turns up suddenly everybody will be on the long side. I know a good trader need to change her/his view fast, but making new long term statement at every corner is a bit "chaotic".
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,617
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:42am Feb 27, 2014 3:42am
What's been said is said, I sincerely hope new traders here do not take your advices regarding fundamentals into account, which is simply misconfusing.

You still have not told me where I am wrong. You can call me names all day long but it won't change the fact that you have nothing of value to add.

Thank you for playing.

  • #43,618
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:42am Feb 27, 2014 3:42am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} Another scenario here is that we'll break the zone just to get these vulnerable stops and then back south. Holding my SL @ 102,550 (ready to move a bit up). We'll see. Good luck to both of us mate.
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} sure that is also a likely scenario, my stop is/has been at 103.43...gl to you too...
Hey Mr. PayTheLimit. Looks like we're having the second scenario in action. SL's wiped out and we're back to continue the south move. Did you re-enter?
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #43,619
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:43am Feb 27, 2014 3:43am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} starting to consider shorts on a bounce toward 102.32/38...but again, think its best to wait for a breach of 101.99 first...
10:00 EST CUT

101.50 (1BL)
101.85 (400M)
102.10 (500M)
102.40 (500M)
102.60 (1.3bln)
  • #43,620
  • Feb 27, 2014 3:44am Feb 27, 2014 3:44am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 10:00 EST CUT 101.50 (1BL) 101.85 (400M) 102.10 (500M) 102.40 (500M) 102.60 (1.3bln)
thanks bro, you read my mind...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
307 traders viewing now