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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,581
  • Feb 26, 2014 11:56am Feb 26, 2014 11:56am
Quoting 81raffae
{quote} Thanks. For low volume?
Yes and among other reasons avoid taking a revenge trade.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #43,582
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:02pm Feb 26, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting 81raffae
{quote} Thanks. For low volume?
Exactly, this time of day is whay I like to call chop time. Rarely does price move unless news of some sort does so and in that case you want to be cautious as well. I like to get in with the beginning of Tokyo open when trading the yen.
  • #43,583
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:35pm Feb 26, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Exactly, this time of day is whay I like to call chop time. Rarely does price move unless news of some sort does so and in that case you want to be cautious as well. I like to get in with the beginning of Tokyo open when trading the yen.
Yeah, and London/New York is supposed to make it move, but it hardly did today, did it? It's time for a nice, rip-your-face-off, 100+ pip directional move, and it can happen any time...
  • #43,584
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:36pm Feb 26, 2014 12:36pm
Closed my short, gonna watch UJ for tomorrow news. Green pips everyone
  • #43,585
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:40pm Feb 26, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting 81raffae
{quote} beacause i long the highlighted candle with stopo below the shadowand then i move the stop in BE. Now i'm waiting a retrace to re-long. I have a support in 102,40 {image}
If it is true that you place the stop at break even (entry) YOU DID THE RIGHT THING. It never fails me, that when I don't place my stop at break even, in the long run I tend to lose more than I gain. My entries are about 90% that when I see 10 pips move profit, I place all stops at break even. The other 10% are very long term runs.
  • #43,586
  • Feb 26, 2014 1:09pm Feb 26, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting Brassboy
{quote} Yeah, and London/New York is supposed to make it move, but it hardly did today, did it? It's time for a nice, rip-your-face-off, 100+ pip directional move, and it can happen any time...
Funny you should say that because it is setting up for just that if the 102.40 area can hold as support. Watch the Tokyo open today if price closes in the upper range it could be primed to break out if it goes back over 102.49 again. The only thing that may keep it in check from a break at tokyo open is the fact there is some news for USD in the morning, otherwise it could be a good tokyo open to trade today. 1st 15 to 30 minutes may give a good clue.
  • #43,587
  • Feb 26, 2014 2:40pm Feb 26, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} If it is true that you place the stop at break even (entry) YOU DID THE RIGHT THING. It never fails me, that when I don't place my stop at break even, in the long run I tend to lose more than I gain. My entries are about 90% that when I see 10 pips move profit, I place all stops at break even. The other 10% are very long term runs.
It' s very hard follow a trade!!!
  • #43,588
  • Feb 26, 2014 2:45pm Feb 26, 2014 2:45pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Yes and among other reasons avoid taking a revenge trade.
No revengr trade. I'm trying to follow my plain
  • #43,589
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:15pm Feb 26, 2014 4:15pm
Well this is either the spot to buy or the rug is gonna get pulled out from under. I think its a small shake to spook those at the open wanting to go long.
  • #43,590
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:17pm Feb 26, 2014 4:17pm
Price opened in balance at the lower value area of yesterdays close.if 102.24 area holds then its a decent low risk long from here targeting 102.99.
  • #43,591
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:18pm Feb 26, 2014 4:18pm
Oh well I was able to unwind my shorts from earlier today...
  • #43,592
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:30pm Feb 26, 2014 4:30pm
I may be wrong but I think the low for the day is already in lol
  • #43,593
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:44pm Feb 26, 2014 4:44pm
My takeaway from the reaction from the open so far is that the selling from 102.60 may have been profit taking and now the bigger players brought at a better price and it is now time to move up for a sec. If it gets back over 102.44-49 then they probably mean business for now if 102.60 is broken again.
  • #43,594
  • Feb 26, 2014 4:58pm Feb 26, 2014 4:58pm
We will eventually go back to 103.00
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  • #43,595
  • Feb 26, 2014 5:08pm Feb 26, 2014 5:08pm
Is everyone day trading here? We're currently trading at quite a fair value point. I speak to some macro fund managers during the day and there is big positioning going on right now kind of like a poker game, we're just waiting to see the hands. We know a few things:

1. Fundamental-BoJ is NOT letting up on easing, they will do more in any case of adjustment. They are actively weakening the Yen. For the Yen to gain, there would need to be a risk-off situation where traders seek liquidity. This type of situation is highly unpredictable.
2. Technical- USDJPY is trading at a value point, where a fair price has been accepted by the market. Price does not stay here for long, it will move away to seek liquidity for the stronger of the buyers or sellers. Last month's mean is just under 104 and this is usually an attractor towards the end of the month.
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  • #43,596
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:07pm Feb 26, 2014 6:07pm
Monthly candle highest so far is 102.828

Range 101.757 -102.828
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  • #43,597
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:38pm Feb 26, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting Ken A
Monthly candle highest so far is 102.828 Range 101.757 -102.828 {image}
So we are in the upper middle east and we will finish the month in the extreme north east ? The TY and LN joint session will set the direction.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #43,598
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:43pm Feb 26, 2014 6:43pm
Quoting mfoste1
Is everyone day trading here? We're currently trading at quite a fair value point. I speak to some macro fund managers during the day and there is big positioning going on right now kind of like a poker game, we're just waiting to see the hands. We know a few things: 1. Fundamental-BoJ is NOT letting up on easing, they will do more in any case of adjustment. They are actively weakening the Yen. For the Yen to gain, there would need to be a risk-off situation where traders seek liquidity. This type of situation is highly unpredictable....
The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one:

  1. Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo.
  2. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours.
  3. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102.

The next Monthly candle should be fairly heavy to the downside and the equity markets will play catch-up with the bond markets. It will be an interesting Spring.

  • #43,599
  • Feb 26, 2014 6:53pm Feb 26, 2014 6:53pm
Quoting Orly
{quote} The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one: Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102. The next Monthly candle...

When you talk negative: 105,00? or 100.00?
  • #43,600
  • Feb 26, 2014 7:06pm Feb 26, 2014 7:06pm
Quoting Orly
The pair is set up to go down fairly hard. If not this month (as Ken A. shows...), then the next one: Everyone knows, despite the jawboning gibberish, the BoJ is out of ammo. Stocks have returned to an all-time high and everyone knows it's on vapours. The pair has stalled on stable (but lower...) US 10-year yields and has not responded to the new all-time highs in SPX. That makes it obvious that the pair is not trading on Japanese fundamentals because we would be trying to push it lower from 110, not support it at 102. The next Monthly candle should...
good analysis man, I agree with you.

And it seems my system agrees with you too... as noted by the "Monthly" text in red.
Attached Image
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