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  • #361
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:25am Feb 24, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Erinsunc
{quote} My post I was asking if anyone else has done back testing and would like to share their results. I was kind of hoping that we could co-ordinate and back test together. You may believe AP3 has done a great job but what if someone gives 6 months of their time blindly following the ‘rules’ only to eventually have a lighbulb moment and come to the conclusion that this system doesn’t work? A fact that AP3 may already know. Who’s going to refund the 6 months? In this thread I see lots of high 5's and thigh slapping for a system that has absolutely...
What I'm saying is that sharing a strategy like this one is a good thing for many FF readers and I applaud AP3 for that. Not saying that the strategy is good or bad. I would have to try it and get to my own statistics.

The way you back/forward test is up to you. I've done it in many ways shapes and forms (used MT4 F12 key like you say, paid someone to write specific EAs that would export results to a spreadsheet, well worth the time "not spent" on demoing the strats, etc), and finally I ended up using some specific testing software, mostly because I am not keen on special types of indicators and also because it allows me to keep many years of historic data in one place, have quick reports and move on... oh, and also because I helps me to keep away from cheating and peeking the next bars..
I'd say, if totally focused, I could manually forward-test 10 years of a D1/H4 strategy in a week... so, to me it's not that much of a hassle to check out a method that interests me and doesn't come with all the stats... (BTW I'm not trying to sell anything here ).

In a perfect world, OPs would back up their claims with proofs but even then, probably, neither one of us would trade it exactly like him, so in the end, the stats would end up skewed anyway.

Anyway, all in all... fair enough.
  • #362
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:26am Feb 24, 2014 10:26am
Hi...,

These were my trades today

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JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #363
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:39am Feb 24, 2014 10:39am
i took this aud/usd trade av realised buys above daily open and previous daily high have a high probability and the reverse for sell
i took 1:2 i dint do the stacking thing i was away from the comp
am gone keep on testing this sys looks really promising
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thankyou gregwilson
  • #364
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:40am Feb 24, 2014 10:40am
Agreed, it takes a long time. 90% of my time is taken up back testing. So in essence what I think you are saying is that given that there is no historical proof of success, that the OP has put forward an idea for a system rather than a system itself.

I'll go with that.

I guess I could start a thread myself called, "Trade The Doji".... The rules are very simple, trade every Doji on the higher TF's (4H and above) and treat it as a reversal signal. Set SL at the High/Low + 5 pips and a TP in the reversal direction of (R:R) 1:4 & locking BE at 1:1. I could post loads of past screens to prove how good it is and become an FF sensation over night. I'll have 1000's of followers and in my own little dream world I'll be an FX guru. The best thing about it is that I have no idea if it returns constant profits but I'll let everyone do the legwork for me and then they can tell me how good I am.... lol

Come on AP3, where are you? Defend yourself...... Praying to the gods of Karma that you are ok btw.
  • #365
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:43am Feb 24, 2014 10:43am
Quoting Erinsunc
I guess I could start a thread myself called, "Trade The Doji".... The rules are very simple, trade every Doji on the higher TF's (4H and above) and treat it as a reversal signal. Set SL at the High/Low + 5 pips and a TP in the reversal direction of (R:R) 1:4 & locking BE at 1:1. I could post loads of past screens to prove how good it is and become an FF sensation over night. I'll have 1000's of followers and in my own little dream world I'll be an FX guru...
Yeah, you just nailed the whole essence of these trading forums
  • #366
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:47am Feb 24, 2014 10:47am
I'd say, just take what serves you, test it, see if it suits your style and go on with your own trading plan. Nothing that will be written in any of these threads has anything to do with your own success, these are just approaches, tools, concepts and ideas that you can work with and shape to your own trading methodology.

A business-like approach has nothing to do with randomly picking strats on the Net and checking it out with a couple of demo trades...
  • #367
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:03am Feb 24, 2014 11:03am
To me what matters is what will happen in the future not what happened in the past.
I will give an example of why. Let's see what is happening now in Ukraine, the country is on the brink of financial collapse, of which was worth all of back tests on its currency?
I'm giving this as an example, but it could happen in another currency.
My two cents
JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #368
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:17am Feb 24, 2014 11:17am
Quoting jvbs
To me what matters is what will happen in the future not what happened in the past. I will give an example of why. Let's see what is happening now in Ukraine, the country is on the brink of financial collapse, of which was worth all of back tests on its currency? I'm giving this as an example, but it could happen in another currency. My two cents JVBS
Lets say you where trading $1000 per trade and during the Cyprus crisis you took a big big hit to your account. Then you pretty much know that your system is NO good during times of indecision so when it comes to another possible repeat scenario of indecision you know to stay out of the market.

That's the benefit of back testing.
  • #369
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:41am Feb 24, 2014 11:41am
[Quote = Erinsunc; 7300799] {quote} Vamos dizer que você estava negociando US $ 1000 por comércio e durante a crise Chipre você deu um grande grande sucesso para a sua conta. Então, você sabe muito bem que o seu sistema não é bom durante os tempos de indecisão por isso, quando se trata de um outro cenário possível repetição de indecisão você sabe que ficar fora do mercado. Esse é o benefício de teste de volta. [/ Quote].



Hi...
Erin ... I did not say I would not look at the history of a graph, it is different from doing a backtest of the history of a graph.
I look at the history of a chart to see their S / R previous, and to see how it has behaved this currency pair back, but that I do not I consider I'm doing the backtest currency pair.
Sorry but as my English is not very good I will not continue this discussion, maybe cause I can not to spend my reasoning as I wanted.
Greetings and all the best for you.
JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #370
  • Feb 24, 2014 8:57pm Feb 24, 2014 8:57pm
i think Ap3's strategy works and it works well.

it just doesn't matter, the believers will believe, the non-believers will leave, simple like that.

in FF, the jewels are buried deep, people search for the holy grail indicators or strategies rather than looking at the naked charts to understand price actions, which truly worked and will continue working for most of us believers. Ap3 just gave another price action example, which unfortunately will be buried deep (we want to keep it alive so that it can benefit someone, i have my own price action strategy, other posters have their own, similar but never the same!).

as for Ap3, he is probably enjoying his cocktail at one of the tropical beach with his laptop ripping pips off the market. he doesn't need to prove anything to anybody, and dont forget price action is not invented by him too.
  • #371
  • Feb 25, 2014 1:00am Feb 25, 2014 1:00am
Hi Erinsunc,

I am using a very similar strategy using price action and it has worked for me great. If you

do have any doubts and you do invest 90% of your time, why don't you run the back-testing

yourself? Just a suggestion... otherwise, I have tried other methods/strategies/ways of

trading to only find that PA is probably the best way to be consistent and this strategy is

just a very good example how to do that. But you have your own right to distrust what

your eyes are seeing. It a part of human nature anyway... Good luck to your back-testing

Chrz
  • #372
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:52am Feb 25, 2014 3:52am
i think Ap3's strategy works and it works well. --- Why? Divine intervention or just a gut feeling?

it just doesn't matter, the believers will believe, the non-believers will leave, simple like that --- Hang on a minute. We are talking about a system that could provide financial freedom. Unlimited wealth and the prospect of never having to work for a boss again. Once more, this 'lottery ticket' of a system is being given to us for free !!!!! Of course I believe.

All I have ever asked in this thread is the question that anyone should ask. Has anyone done any testing with this system and has an idea one way or the other if it works. AP3 introduced this system at the back end of 2013. For those who have been interested from the beginning should have been trading the system for at least 4 to 6 week by now and I was just wondering, how does it look? I am gob smacked that general feeling is that what I am asking is showing disrespect in some way.

I have said previously. I am not totally against this concept but that is all it appears to be to be. A concept, an idea and nothing else and I'd would have had more respect for AP3 if he had said as much at the beginning.

It is interesting to note that no one has actually said that this system does provide consistency. Apart from the AWOL AP3 that is.
  • #373
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:54am Feb 25, 2014 3:54am
Quoting nasko
Hi Erinsunc, I am using a very similar strategy using price action and it has worked for me great. If you do have any doubts and you do invest 90% of your time, why don't you run the back-testing yourself? Just a suggestion... otherwise, I have tried other methods/strategies/ways of trading to only find that PA is probably the best way to be consistent and this strategy is just a very good example how to do that. But you have your own right to distrust what your eyes are seeing. It a part of human nature anyway... Good luck to your back-testing...
As I have said previously, I am prepared to.

But what is wrong in asking the question if any one else has ?
  • #374
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:26am Feb 25, 2014 4:26am
Quoting Erinsunc
It is interesting to note that no one has actually said that this system does provide consistency. Apart from the AWOL AP3 that is.
Erin, look around FF and point just ONE single thread where consistency of the system is shown... there's none, basically, because those who post the system do it probably on a hunch and didn't do the hard work upfront and mostly (me think) because once you've done your research and gathered all relevant data, there's two outcomes: the system sucks (ough to be the majority) or it works but the OP doesn't feel like sharing the stats because it was exactly that: real tough hard work that you don't feel like giving on a silver plater...

Maybe I'm a selfish bast**d but I for instance will not share my own stats and months of research for the many systems I've back/forward tested, these data belong to me and my own hard sweat...

I think thats why you will never get an answer, even if you mean well, basically it's the wrong question to ask.
  • #375
  • Feb 25, 2014 5:18am Feb 25, 2014 5:18am
Quoting tradista
{quote} Erin, look around FF and point just ONE single thread where consistency of the system is shown... there's none, basically, because those who post the system do it probably on a hunch and didn't do the hard work upfront and mostly (me think) because once you've done your research and gathered all relevant data, there's two outcomes: the system sucks (ough to be the majority) or it works but the OP doesn't feel like sharing the stats because it was exactly that: real tough hard work that you don't feel like giving on a silver plater... Maybe...
When I post I always work on the basis that a newbie to fx is reading. Maybe a guy who has lost his job and has been sucked into the world of fast easy cash in the hope that when his money runs out in 3 months time he will be able to pay the mortgage.

I'm not in this position myself if this guy exists, I'd like to give the head's up as I'm not a selfish B*s*ard as you put it.. You say that there isn't a single thread on FF where the system provides consistency. I'll take your word for it as there is no way I have enough time in my life to read every thread but if you have, high five !

You say I am asking the wrong question of the OP, readers and followers of this thread. I Completely 100% disagree agree with you.

We have already established that you have plenty of free time but you have to remember my friend, most of us don't. Time after time so called gurus start a thread like this, stating that it makes money. Sucking everyone into their world and in the process boosting their own ego. It's the claim that "it makes money" and "is profitable" without any proof what so ever that really gets on my t1ts!

For them, this may just seem to be an innocent claim but the impact is far, far more expensive than blowing any FX account. People pour hours and hours of time into blindly following the thread. Missing their kids birthday party. Not going out with the wife of the weekend. All in the belief that the OP made a claim that the system is profitable.

I have read about people shouldn’t want to be given things on a silver plate, yadda yadda yadda. How about people not wanting to be lied to and not being mislead. Ever thought of that one?

Anyone who is serious about trading FX WILL but the time in. They will backtest. They will get up at 4am in the morning while the family is asleep just to put them few extra hours in to learn and prove a system. But if that same person asks politely if anyone has proof that the system is worth investing the time into learning and testing. They get classed as being lazy.

You keep your stats to yourself Tradista. There is absolutely no reason at all to give them out. You agree that you are selfish. Fine, I admire your honesty and that explains why you want to keep them to yourself. But what does someone get from telling a forum that they have results but have no intention in ever giving them out? Why mention that you have results in the first place? Your silence would be more respected as opposed to your bragging.

I’m not trying to get you to give them out btw. I’m just curious why you feel the need to say that. Can’t you see that at that level, you are no different than AP3 and his claim that this does make money?
  • #376
  • Edited 6:19am Feb 25, 2014 6:07am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting Erinsunc
{quote}I’m just curious why you feel the need to say that. Can’t you see that at that level, you are no different than AP3 and his claim that this does make money?
The only reason I said that is because I feel that you are where I was a couple years ago, you want to succeed, it shows in your words. Believe me, I'm not offended a bit by you question, you actually where very respectful and do deserve a respectful answer, of course.

Myself, I'm just taking the liberty to provide some guidance because I can see myself in the same shoes some time ago, wanting to take the shortcut directly into the system that fits me best... unfortunately, I didn't find any shortcut, I don't think there is one... So, the moment I accepted that time wasn't on my side and that besides the extra physical/mental effort of the endless hours of trial and error (yeah, I used to work a dayjob and learn to trade at night while my kids were sleeping) I also needed to give it time, for the subtleties to sink in, and PRACTICE hours and hours on my own, make as many mistakes as I could without giving too much money to the market, thi was when the A-HA moments showed up, and the all too "common sense" jargon from wizemen felt right.

So, basically, I'm just trying to help, maybe I could do it in a more sensitive manner, but sometimes, the best way to help someone steer away from many mistakes is to make them hear some cold hard trues... not that I have to, nor am I directing my words only to you. As you said, many newbies are reading this, so I hope this discussion can help some of them (at least, that's why I am giving some of my precious time to this forum).

This really is a tough business, really harder than any newbie could ever think, where you shouldn't trust nobody except yourself. It's sad but its true. In order to do that you have to do everything yourself, period.

I'm sure you know what makes a system work: "it isn't the system but the trader"... I believe its true and thats why I don't care about stats given by someone else. I only trust my own stats because they reveal what I DID when I traded past data. No two traders will trade the same way the same system (and please forget the EAs).

I do feel sorry for the guys who come to trading chasing the get rich quick dream... I've been there myself... Hopefully most of them will take the time to read and learn prior to gamble their life's savings away...

Anyone who takes the time to do the "behind the curtain" hard work, finds his own style and master it, with patience and discipline, will without a doubt find success, it is inevitable.

So, to me, it's the wrong question but a legitimate question
  • #377
  • Feb 25, 2014 8:40pm Feb 25, 2014 8:40pm
well said, well said, Tradista.

yes, there is no short cut. this is a profession, it takes time to master it, and it has to be done by the trader itself, any secondary information fed by others are pretty useless, or even worse, misleading.

screen the charts for as many hours as possible to see beyond the price candles, by the moment of aha, you will find yourself very different from what you were

and talking about consistency, it's a property of the trader, 2 traders trade the same system will get very different results, want living proof? google 'turtle trading strategy'.

trading is not a get rich quick scheme, casino is on the other side of the high way.

and thanks for bumping the thread.
  • #378
  • Feb 25, 2014 9:19pm Feb 25, 2014 9:19pm
GBPUSD trade yesterday only to find it died at BE after achieving 1R+. 1.6724 daily resistance was well respected. 1.6675 entry with 35 pips SL.

expecting more consolidations to come before the market continues to move in either direction.

now i am going to shift my focus to EURJPY, 141.237 still is the resistance level to be punched through and retested, only by then, price could potentially move back to 1.45 area to hit the monthly level. we shall see.
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  • #379
  • Feb 26, 2014 1:39am Feb 26, 2014 1:39am
Good analysis ZX- I haven't traded since last week. Price looks locked in

a cruel range . Otherwise, I am looking for GBP to probably break this range

after the gdp data... Otherwise, I am currently watching the JPY pairs for a long

and the AU and NU pairs. Let's see whether we are going to have some nice signals

today. I am just attaching the NU pair- it looks nice, but a small resistance above. Might

consider trading it
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  • #380
  • Feb 26, 2014 3:04am Feb 26, 2014 3:04am
I think that there has been some institutional buying here

Looks like we are going to have a nice GBP GDP surpise
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