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  • #821
  • Feb 21, 2014 8:24am Feb 21, 2014 8:24am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hi there, I currently do not trade Crude. However, Crude looks to be stalling at 100. COT looks like its at an extreme and favours downside but price is not moving yet. I would prefer the Resistance level to be more significant. A short would be pretty speculative if your into that. Commodities in general are looking pretty bullish across the board. IMO Weekly pinbars at S/R offer better chances of a successful trade. Not sure I have helped? Good luck either way Thanks for visiting. {image}
many thanks for your value input.

is the cot to be subscribed to use?
  • #822
  • Feb 23, 2014 3:15am Feb 23, 2014 3:15am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} many thanks for your value input. is the cot to be subscribed to use?
tlpfx,
From cotbase.com the basic features are free but the extra analytics do cost a bit more ($8 per month or there abouts)
All this raw data is free from the cftc website but im to lazy of organise it myself
  • #823
  • Feb 23, 2014 5:13am Feb 23, 2014 5:13am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} All the best with it rehab. The structure looks like its an expanding triangle. This is interesting as it means the bull and the bears are getting aggressive (HH and LL). For me its a little to high to be buying. I may consider a long possibly a bit lower however, momentum appears to be on your side. Good luck. {image}
Hi Mike, all,
My take on Cable - I have same problem I always have with this pair - I wanna sell both - but I think recent good UK news is fully priced in now so much as I hate to buy the dollar I'm looking for a short - the charts say it all.

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  • #824
  • Feb 23, 2014 5:34pm Feb 23, 2014 5:34pm
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All of the markets that are presenting strong sell setups are still showing bullish market structure (this is normal) other than the GBP/JPY. The GBPJPY is showing confirmed LH and LL action. This is the first market I will be looking to enter this week.
All the other charts are showing bearish divergence (MACD) on tests of the recent highs. GBP/AUD also looks like a possible H&S pattern? I will wait for a bit more price action to unfold on these to see if it confirms a reversal. The uptrends have been very strong so an outright short now would be a bit risky (I got burnt a week or so ago on this). Will probably look to sell a failed rally higher.
Good trading to all

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  • #825
  • Feb 23, 2014 5:38pm Feb 23, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Mike, all, My take on Cable - I have same problem I always have with this pair - I wanna sell both - but I think recent good UK news is fully priced in now so much as I hate to buy the dollar I'm looking for a short - the charts say it all. {image} {image}
Stu,
I completely agree with you. Just need the action to move that way.
  • #826
  • Feb 24, 2014 3:24am Feb 24, 2014 3:24am
H&S?

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  • #827
  • Feb 24, 2014 4:17am Feb 24, 2014 4:17am
Hi mpb,

I'm enjoying your journal - it's refreshing to see someone actually targeting realistic results, and your approach is similar to mine.

If you don't mind me asking, how many trades have you taken in the year and a half since starting this journal? In post #1 you mentioned taking 30 or so high probability setups per year - is your actual trading frequency close to that?

I am also getting bullish on gold. The equity indices all tend to move up or down together, and fundamentally the rally in stocks seems to be running out of steam. COT positioning is bearish on almost all the major stock indices, and the fed is going to keep cutting QE until it's gone. Technically they seem to be generally putting in various kinds of top patterns, but since the trend is still up I don't want to sell. Buying gold is an alternative to selling equities - as you can see below, when equities go down gold usually goes up. I think COT positioning in gold is still bullish too, and it should benefit from growing uncertainty regarding stock markets.

Shorting EUR/JPY as a risk barometer is another alternative to shorting equity indices, it also capitalizes on bullish sentiment you might have on JPY.
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #828
  • Feb 24, 2014 9:50am Feb 24, 2014 9:50am
Quoting stewrigh
H&S? {image}
Bollocks - think the PPT been at work again - up 150
  • #829
  • Feb 24, 2014 10:02am Feb 24, 2014 10:02am
Quoting mypipbull
{image} All of the markets that are presenting strong sell setups are still showing bullish market structure (this is normal) other than the GBP/JPY. The GBPJPY is showing confirmed LH and LL action. This is the first market I will be looking to enter this week. All the other charts are showing bearish divergence (MACD) on tests of the recent highs. GBP/AUD also looks like a possible H&S pattern? I will wait for a bit more price action to unfold on these to see if it confirms a reversal. The uptrends have been very strong so an outright short now...
Like the CAD pairs... see all reversed PB (shooting star) in action @ level.
  • #830
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:38pm Feb 24, 2014 5:38pm
Hi numbnuts....great name by the way ,
Thanks for positing, it's nice to see someone in the same timezone as me.

Regarding your questions around my first post and outlined strategy, I must say that my 'big picture' investment strategy has changed somewhat since this journal began. I have re-allocated assets into a number of investment vehicles and this journal is more speculative than it used to be. As a result my trading as noted in this journal makes up a pretty small percentage of my net worth due to this higher risk. Also my approach to the markets is a little different now however the core concepts remain. In saying all that I am looking at reducing the number of trades I take as IMHO the more you make the less you make and proof of that is reflected in my results to date. Perhaps it just me but I am finding it easier to make money in markets other than currencies.

Hope to hear more from you.

Comments embedded below:

Hi mpb, I'm enjoying your journal - it's refreshing to see someone actually targeting realistic results, and your approach is similar to mine. If you don't mind me asking, how many trades have you taken in the year 30 which is far too many and my current ROI to date reflects this currently down about 8%. and a half since starting this journal? Sorry I have no idea how many from the from the start of the journal In post #1 you mentioned taking 30 or so high probability setups per year - is your actual trading frequency close to that? Unfortunately no its not as mentioned above I am also getting bullish on gold. You are not alone. I am very bullish Gold The equity indices all tend to move up or down together, and fundamentally the rally in stocks seems to be running out of steam maybe.....I am very cautious about shorting it. The melt up can continue for a while yet, remember a Bear wants to lure as many suckers into the cave as possible before the mauling begins COT positioning is bearish on almost all the major stock indices, and the fed is going to keep cutting QE until it's gone. I'm not sure they can keep cutting to zero without the financial markets capitulating. Let's wait and see about that, my guess is they will increase again before all is said and done.. Technically they seem to be generally putting in various kinds of top patterns, but since the trend is still up I don't want to sell good choice in my opinion. Buying gold is an alternative to selling equities - as you can see below, when equities go down gold usually goes up. I think COT positioning in gold is still bullish too agree, and it should benefit from growing uncertainty regarding stock markets physical market yes but paper market perhaps not, in saying that I have done some bottom fishing of Gold stocks and am currently up over 30% for the year this excludes returns on physical metal. Shorting EUR/JPY as a risk barometer is another alternative to shorting equity indices, it also capitalizes on bullish sentiment you might have on JPY. correct.
  • #831
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:42pm Feb 24, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Bollocks - think the PPT been at work again - up 150
Its nuts .....looking like a soft close though so all may not be lost? (or gained as it is in this case)
  • #832
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:48pm Feb 24, 2014 5:48pm
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} Like the CAD pairs... see all reversed PB (shooting star) in action @ level.
Yes looking positive.......I would now like to see either another failed test or a simple break down in the trend (EMA or trendline) before opening a short.
  • #833
  • Feb 24, 2014 11:34pm Feb 24, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting numbnuts
......COT positioning is bearish on almost all the major stock indices............
Sorry I missed this comment,
I assume you mean US Indexes? It depends you how you interpret it. My analysis actually says otherwise. I see bullish sentiment in the data from an extreme positioning point of view and an open interest point of view.
I know others interpret things differently but looking at the chart for the Dow you can see what I mean.
Despite this I am not willing to buy until a new high is established, even then I would be cautious.
Would appreciate your thoughts to the contrary?
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  • #834
  • Feb 25, 2014 12:19am Feb 25, 2014 12:19am
Mike,
You mention that you are invested in other markets - do you mind if I ask which ones.

I am also finding FX a challenge atm and I think it's due to the worldwide QE policy - they are all trying to get to the bottom first lol.

Having said that there are a few opportunities to jump on the trend - it just takes longer - GBPCAD was a good example and I'm currently getting very interested in EURNOK.

Still in and out of coffee and sugar too - And gold/silver of course. I don't touch equities - I'd rather 'play' the indices.
  • #835
  • Feb 25, 2014 3:22am Feb 25, 2014 3:22am
Quoting mypipbull
..... Would appreciate your thoughts to the contrary?
I don't usually take too much notice of current positioning unless it shows extremes or is pulling away from an extreme. I rather focus on trends - commercial interests accumulate short positions as price rises, then ditch those positions as price falls. Big specs ride the trends. Looking at your chart, you circled four areas. On the first three, the red line (commercials) stopped rising and turned down again, signalling a market bottom. On the fourth, it hasn't yet. (The flat bit at the end represents a lack of data). It might turn downward again, or it might not - I can't say what it will do. What I can say is that right now, it is climbing. And when the red line goes up, price goes down. The big specs are also liquidating their long holdings which usually signals a downtrend.

The other US indexes show similar patterns, though NASDAQ seems to be lagging in that commercials haven't started liquidating their shorts yet
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #836
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:16am Feb 25, 2014 4:16am
Quoting stewrigh
Mike, You mention that you are invested in other markets - do you mind if I ask which ones. I am also finding FX a challenge atm and I think it's due to the worldwide QE policy - they are all trying to get to the bottom first lol. Having said that there are a few opportunities to jump on the trend - it just takes longer - GBPCAD was a good example and I'm currently getting very interested in EURNOK. Still in and out of coffee and sugar too - And gold/silver of course. I don't touch equities - I'd rather 'play' the indices.
Hey Stu,

Sure I don't mind. Over the last while I went through a redistribution phase of our assets. Basically balanced out our net worth into what I deemed prudent proportions given my opinion of the current global financial situation. Asset classes were the usual Real Estate, Equities, Physical Metals, Cash and what I do here a Margin Trading account. Obviously the higher perceived risk in asset class the less the percent allocated.

Margin Trading Account (this forum) has the lowest capital allocation and it includes FX, Indexes and some Commodities (will be expanding this area soon)

Equities were approached a little differently. In Australia we have a compulsory superannuation savings scheme (about 9% of your salary). So this goes straight into an investment fund as legislated by federal law. So I selected the most aggressive funds I could find since I have no control over it and will not see the money until I retire (yeah....like I'm counting on that) However, in addition to this I have personally invested a reasonable amount into Precious Metal Stocks due to my bullishness on PM's and the ridiculous value they were/are offering. I bought most in January this year. These are off to a great start so far. I am looking to add to these on a pullback but have yet to see one. I understand they have a limited shelf life due to depleting reserves etc but we are a fair way from that mattering yet IMHO. I will soon be dropping a few charts on this forum about these and other potential PM stocks.

Physical Metals, you know my opinion here. I am in your camp. Shamelessly bullish. I increased this area to what i consider a 'worthwhile' amount. So far well above water on that too.

Cash, yeah boring. Term deposit getting a few percent. Value slowly eroding due to the expansion in money supply etc etc etc....

Real Estate - Rentals Properties etc. Rather not discuss specifics.

So despite what I am experiencing on this trading account as a slump (the worst I have had since I began trading to be honest) I am not too worried given other investments.

I'm not gonna lie...trading a Margin Account was originally (all those years ago) conceived in 'my own head' as being the way to get rich and quit my job. As time has passed I have found 'investing' to be easier and more profitable..........so far.
I see the huge potential but have yet to breakthrough and live up to my own expectations. Perhaps they were a bit unrealistic, in fact......i know they were.

This year has been challenging from a speculative point of view. However, I am very optimistic about the year ahead and am looking forward to turning this deficit into a surplus a challenge in itself.

Hope that helps? Speak soon and good trading Stu.
  • #837
  • Feb 25, 2014 4:46am Feb 25, 2014 4:46am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I don't usually take
I think we mostly agree. It's always good to get someone elses take on the same information

Comments below:

I don't usually take too much notice of current positioning unless it shows extremes (I think it is at an extreme now) or is pulling away from an extreme (I agree) . I rather focus on trends - commercial interests accumulate short positions as price rises (I agree), then ditch those positions as price falls. Big specs ride the trends (I agree). Looking at your chart, you circled four areas. On the first three, the red line (commercials) stopped rising and turned down again, signalling a market bottom (I agree, they turned down from an extreme). On the fourth, it hasn't yet. (The flat bit at the end represents a lack of data). It might turn downward again, or it might not - I can't say what it will do. What I can say is that right now, it is climbing. (It is at an extreme but you are quite correct it has not turned yet and may not) And when the red line goes up, price goes down (Usually...unless the commercials are forced to abandon there hedge positions and join the current trend....market capitulation....). The big specs are also liquidating their long holdings which usually signals a downtrend (I agree, but that alone can just show profit taking, they need to establish new shorts in the market for a reversal to be confirmed) The other US indexes show similar patterns, though NASDAQ seems to be lagging in that commercials haven't started liquidating their shorts yet
  • #838
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:34pm Feb 26, 2014 12:34pm
think I mentioned this yesterday - I'm more interested now


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  • #839
  • Feb 26, 2014 12:50pm Feb 26, 2014 12:50pm
Buy the dips?

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  • #840
  • Feb 26, 2014 1:09pm Feb 26, 2014 1:09pm
Quoting stewrigh
think I mentioned this yesterday - I'm more interested now {image}
Another pic

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