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  • #801
  • Feb 12, 2014 3:20pm Feb 12, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I am short this one already MPB. Fundamentally and technically price should not be here at all Olu
Couldn't agree more. As we know though the market and the economy are two different beasts altogether.
  • #802
  • Feb 12, 2014 7:11pm Feb 12, 2014 7:11pm
USD/JPY - Short Open
I entered a little differently here.
I have a stop above Bar1 and entered at market after Bar2.
Price looks to be stalling at the 50EMA and 60EMA on a re-test. We are also in the value band for a short.
If my stop is hit then the bearish wave formation is broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #803
  • Feb 12, 2014 8:16pm Feb 12, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey rehab, I am heavily long gold so this is nice to see. Just be careful with the GBP atm and ask yourself if you really want to buy into this heavy resistance? {image}
hi MBP how do you interpret the COT graph?

Do we just follow the commerical traders?
  • #804
  • Feb 12, 2014 8:17pm Feb 12, 2014 8:17pm
Dow
Strong rally but stalling at:
1) EMA50/60
2)16000
3)50% retracement level

I'm flat but if I had a gun to my head I would look for a short somewhere here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20140213_DOW_D.png Size: 35 KB
  • #805
  • Feb 12, 2014 8:24pm Feb 12, 2014 8:24pm
Quoting trexy123
{quote} hi MBP how do you interpret the COT graph? Do we just follow the commerical traders?
Trexy,
This has been discussed a bit earlier in the thread......a few posts here about it. Hope this helps?

Quoting mypipbull
{quote} A common approach to analyse COT data is to look at....
  • #806
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:00am Feb 13, 2014 3:00am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey rehab, I am heavily long gold so this is nice to see. Just be careful with the GBP atm and ask yourself if you really want to buy into this heavy resistance? {image}
I regret exiting my long position of gold when it made that pinbar (as Olu said, I need to work on difining exiting strategies-as well as MM). I am waiting for a chance to jump in. Thanks for warning me about cable. you are right about the layers of resistance but any resitance can break. I am waiting for a pullback to jump in if the trend would be still bullish and the $ would be still bearish and all in all supported by a good momentum. thanks
  • #807
  • Feb 13, 2014 3:45am Feb 13, 2014 3:45am
Quoting mypipbull
Dow Strong rally but stalling at: 1) EMA50/60 2)16000 3)50% retracement level I'm flat but if I had a gun to my head I would look for a short somewhere here. {image}
First I thought it would retrace to one of Fib levels then I would re-enter short. But the momentum of the retrace together with the expectation of a weak $ and the bullish gold made me hold on and looking to rejoin the bull instead. letīs see how things will develop, but for now I totally agree with you. MPB: would you mind opening a discussion about exiting strategies? It is a topic that is not discussed enough and may be we can learn from each others. Thanks
  • #808
  • Feb 13, 2014 8:51pm Feb 13, 2014 8:51pm
AUD/USD - Long Opened
Stop below Bar1, Long opened within Bar2. I expect 0.91 to get consumed.
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  • #809
  • Feb 13, 2014 9:26pm Feb 13, 2014 9:26pm
GBP/USD - Short Opened
Lots of strength being seen here and maybe I'm the stupid one (would not be the first time) but I'm just not a believer of this rally. I've seen enough in the COT positions to make me think this rally is going to fail.
This is a very speculative position (being short) but I feel I have enough reasons. Risk is contained so the worst that can happen is a small 1% loss. My stop is above Bar1 the April 25 High back in 2011. Note the strength of that April 2011 bar, it had a very strong close with lots of momentum. I'm guessing most thought it was going to breakout as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #810
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:06am Feb 16, 2014 1:06am
greeting.

do you trade the oil?
any comment for the PB?

subscribed
  • #811
  • Feb 17, 2014 1:53am Feb 17, 2014 1:53am
I managed to jump in on 4h base by a partial position. Now I see a momentum slowdown, candle formation (marked in light green)that I donīt like, plus we are approaching the short term down trendline (all combined by the GU approaching a major resistance MPB pointed out). The question then when reaching the trendline (marked in green) whether to close part or let it all run. That is the trade exit strategies i need to develop. Cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #812
  • Feb 17, 2014 2:19am Feb 17, 2014 2:19am
Quoting rehab
I managed to jump in on 4h base by a partial position. Now I see a momentum slowdown, candle formation (marked in light green)that I donīt like, plus we are approaching the short term down trendline (all combined by the GU approaching a major resistance MPB pointed out). The question then when reaching the trendline (marked in green) whether to close part or let it all run. That is the trade exit strategies i need to develop. Cheers. {image}
GBPJPY was a good call rehab...i dont know if it helps because managing a trade is such a personal thing but price tags on the
chart below is where I would move my stops..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.png Size: 71 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #813
  • Feb 17, 2014 2:59am Feb 17, 2014 2:59am
Quoting j4d
{quote} GBPJPY was a good call rehab...i dont know if it helps because managing a trade is such a personal thing but price tags on the chart below is where I would move my stops.. {image}
Thanks a lot J4D for your opinion and for your chart, I will study it. I know that exiting is more difficult than entering and managing the trade is the most difficult of all. I hoped for sharing thoughts and you did, thanks. Have a nice day.
  • #814
  • Feb 17, 2014 6:57pm Feb 17, 2014 6:57pm
Quoting mypipbull
GBP/USD - Short Opened
Took a loss on this one....perhaps I was a little early.....today looks bearish mind you.
My bias is still short unless we get above 1.7. So just in a holding pattern for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #815
  • Feb 18, 2014 3:36am Feb 18, 2014 3:36am
Quoting tlpfx14
greeting. do you trade the oil? any comment for the PB? subscribed
Hi there,
I currently do not trade Crude. However, Crude looks to be stalling at 100. COT looks like its at an extreme and favours downside but price is not moving yet. I would prefer the Resistance level to be more significant. A short would be pretty speculative if your into that. Commodities in general are looking pretty bullish across the board.
IMO Weekly pinbars at S/R offer better chances of a successful trade.
Not sure I have helped? Good luck either way Thanks for visiting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #816
  • Feb 18, 2014 3:52am Feb 18, 2014 3:52am
Quoting rehab
I managed to jump in on 4h base by a partial position. Now I see a momentum slowdown, candle formation (marked in light green)that I donīt like, plus we are approaching the short term down trendline (all combined by the GU approaching a major resistance MPB pointed out). The question then when reaching the trendline (marked in green) whether to close part or let it all run. That is the trade exit strategies i need to develop. Cheers. {image}
rehab,
Nice entry I must say well done on being in profit.

One key question is did you mark that green trendline before you took the trade or after the trade was opened?
If you maked it before as a target then perhaps scale out. However, I personally would typically only scale out after at least 3R profit on the table and it looks like you would be only at maybe 2R if it gets to the trendline.
If you marked it after the position was opened then you may be suffering a bit from 'fear of a profit evaporating'. This is very common for all traders if we were all honest. I 100% support j4D's response with trailing below swing lows IMO thats the best way to go.

Hope that helps rehab. All the best
  • #817
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:32am Feb 18, 2014 10:32am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} rehab, Nice entry I must say well done on being in profit. One key question is did you mark that green trendline before you took the trade or after the trade was opened? If you maked it before as a target then perhaps scale out. However, I personally would typically only scale out after at least 3R profit on the table and it looks like you would be only at maybe 2R if it gets to the trendline. If you marked it after the position was opened then you may be suffering a bit from 'fear of a profit evaporating'. This is very common...
Thanks a lot MPB for sharing your opinion, much appreciated. I marked the green line after, and yes, I fear to loose from my profit. I usually do not scale out, I only BE after about 2R and exit part or all position at first resistance (depends), but this time I will try scaling instead. Thanks!
  • #818
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:04pm Feb 18, 2014 4:04pm
Ok, here is a try-long GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #819
  • Feb 19, 2014 3:14pm Feb 19, 2014 3:14pm
Quoting rehab
Ok, here is a try-long GU {image}
All the best with it rehab.
The structure looks like its an expanding triangle. This is interesting as it means the bull and the bears are getting aggressive (HH and LL). For me its a little to high to be buying. I may consider a long possibly a bit lower however, momentum appears to be on your side. Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 201400220_GBPUSD_D.png Size: 21 KB
  • #820
  • Feb 20, 2014 1:41am Feb 20, 2014 1:41am
Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts. I am encouraged based on the $ movement, that I think it is bearish and what we are seeing now is just a pullback. I agree with you buying abit lower would be smarter but I opened a small position so if it fails I will go in again.
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