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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,441
  • Feb 21, 2014 1:25pm Feb 21, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting Orly
.... When people are buying stocks ("risk-on"...), they are not afraid of a crash. But when they buy stocks, that usually means they sell bonds, which means that bonds will go down in price. If bond prices go down, the yield on bonds will go up in order to attract more customers. On the other hand, if people are afraid of stocks ("risk-off"...), they will buy bonds, sending the yield down...
Definitely 'risk-on' when people are buying stocks, but I suspect that it is the movement of money from one market to another that causes currency fluctuation. Average Joe cannot buy stocks without having money up-front, so they pay and the broker ships the money off-shore. When they sell stocks the broker has 3 days to get the money available, so they buy Yen for delivery at settlement time. All IMHO of course....

Quoting Orly
There's also "carry trade" considerations for the guys wielding the big money to worry about...
Whilst there may be some truth in that I read (about a year ago) that a major player in carry trading is/are Japanese public who buy AUD for instance because of the interest rate differential. It would also explain why natural disasters cause a strengthening of the Yen, because the public need their cash back to pay for replacement cars and building materials.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,442
  • Feb 22, 2014 6:39am Feb 22, 2014 6:39am
Quoting Orly
{quote} Greetings! And don't worry about the English. I'm sure your English is much better than my (whatever language you speak...). There are a few reasons why they are so correlated but the most important (for small retail 4X traders...) has to do with risk appetite. When people are buying stocks ("risk-on"...), they are not afraid of a crash. But when they buy stocks, that usually means they sell bonds, which means that bonds will go down in price. If bond prices go down, the yield on bonds will go up in order to attract more customers. On the...
When that correlation becomes negative then we will see golden opportunity in Yen! When Japanese people start selling bonds we will see USD/JPY going down to 60!

I expect this pair to hit 60 till the end of 2015.
  • #43,443
  • Feb 22, 2014 7:27am Feb 22, 2014 7:27am
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} When that correlation becomes negative then we will see golden opportunity in Yen! When Japanese people start selling bonds we will see USD/JPY going down to 60! I expect this pair to hit 60 till the end of 2015.
Quite right. I predicted this pair to go down on Dec 12, 2013 when it was around 104. We will see a slide that will mirror the one in the Aussie.
  • #43,444
  • Edited 1:05pm Feb 22, 2014 11:21am | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} When that correlation becomes negative then we will see golden opportunity in Yen! When Japanese people start selling bonds we will see USD/JPY going down to 60! I expect this pair to hit 60 till the end of 2015.
I hope so!



_______

I am trying to figure out how your idea would work.
So the Japanese people start selling bonds (but I thought the were basically mandated by the government to buy them...) and the price of bonds rises, sending yields...where, exactly? I mean they're almost negative as it is.

What is the mechanism that would prompt U/J to drop to 60?

Thanks.
  • #43,445
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:57am Feb 23, 2014 4:57am
Quoting Orly
{quote} I hope so! _______ I am trying to figure out how your idea would work. So the Japanese people start selling bonds (but I thought the were basically mandated by the government to buy them...) and the price of bonds rises, sending yields...where, exactly? I mean they're almost negative as it is. What is the mechanism that would prompt U/J to drop to 60? Thanks.
Sorry, is there a free way to see the chart of yeld of varius bond in the intraday time frame and in REAL TIME?
  • #43,446
  • Feb 23, 2014 12:27pm Feb 23, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} When that correlation becomes negative then we will see golden opportunity in Yen! When Japanese people start selling bonds we will see USD/JPY going down to 60! I expect this pair to hit 60 till the end of 2015.
overly bold call, you may be right, but being right a head of time don't make you $$$
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #43,447
  • Feb 23, 2014 1:18pm Feb 23, 2014 1:18pm
Hello US/JPY

FXCM was saying the door way is open to US/JPY 110+ EUR/YEN 150+

Must admit these we pit stops,are not good for traders holding longs which are under water.

Best to slow down until we figure out what is going on.

I been trading GBP pairs last week,plenty off action
  • #43,448
  • Feb 23, 2014 2:44pm Feb 23, 2014 2:44pm
It's interesting point of view

http://www.efxnews.com/story/23023/s...%28eFXnews+%29

Regards
  • #43,449
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:22pm Feb 23, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello US/JPY FXCM was saying the door way is open to US/JPY 110+ EUR/YEN 150+ Must admit these we pit stops,are not good for traders holding longs which are under water. Best to slow down until we figure out what is going on. I been trading GBP pairs last week,plenty off action
I like reading your posts... <snorkel emoticon>
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,450
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:41pm Feb 23, 2014 4:41pm
For me all JPY pairs are bullish, especially USDJPY, since the last FOMC meeting and faster taper talks we could expect stronger dollar, despite talks of US Macro data slowdown. Next days of data will be crucial for the near short-mid term trend, anyways, ALL technical indicators are bullish and indicating that bull trend will continue. I will zoom in M5 or M15 charts to shoot for a good entry and jump in long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,451
  • Feb 23, 2014 4:52pm Feb 23, 2014 4:52pm
Quoting InsiderFX
For me all JPY pairs are bullish, especially USDJPY, since the last FOMC meeting and faster taper talks we could expect stronger dollar, despite talks of US Macro data slowdown. Next days of data will be crucial for the near short-mid term trend, anyways, ALL technical indicators are bullish and indicating that bull trend will continue. I will zoom in M5 or M15 charts to shoot for a good entry and jump in long. {image}
Longterm I would remain bullish as well but I can see price going back to 100.80 first now on daily chart. Setup to crush those wanting to go long is probably now in effect. Then price will be brought down to 100.80 maybe even lower and then BOOM back up just how everyone thought in the first place.
  • #43,452
  • Feb 23, 2014 10:02pm Feb 23, 2014 10:02pm
sell on retracement
  • #43,453
  • Feb 23, 2014 10:31pm Feb 23, 2014 10:31pm
102.00
  • #43,454
  • Feb 23, 2014 10:36pm Feb 23, 2014 10:36pm
  •  Ravelt
  • | Joined Feb 2013 | Status: The Closer You Look The Less You Se | 194 Posts
Quoting Ken A
102.00
is this your target ?
  • #43,455
  • Feb 23, 2014 10:41pm Feb 23, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting Ken A
102.00
TQ Ken, i'll set my TP over there
  • #43,456
  • Feb 23, 2014 10:43pm Feb 23, 2014 10:43pm
102.00 Possible bounce for U/J

E/J 140/30
  • #43,457
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:10am Feb 24, 2014 1:10am
Quoting Ken A
102.00 Possible bounce for U/J E/J 140/30
From the timing earlier I wondered if that was just a statement. The Nikkei was a wild ride today by the look of the chart....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,458
  • Feb 24, 2014 1:15am Feb 24, 2014 1:15am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} From the timing earlier I wondered if that was just a statement. The Nikkei was a wild ride today by the look of the chart....
Too early to be sure LO just started
  • #43,459
  • Feb 24, 2014 4:05am Feb 24, 2014 4:05am
Expect a pop up when everyone is on the bearish side and big drop when everyone turns bullish. This morning in Asia when everyone was bearish markets turned around.
  • #43,460
  • Feb 24, 2014 5:51am Feb 24, 2014 5:51am
Just follow the market ...... if we can
Quoting stylinex
Expect a pop up when everyone is on the bearish side and big drop when everyone turns bullish. This morning in Asia when everyone was bearish markets turned around.
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