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  • #878,401
  • Feb 21, 2014 4:59pm Feb 21, 2014 4:59pm
At present, if S&P500 falls is EURUSD likely to fall too?

I've been researching the correlations, but can't find a definitive answer. Historically, SP500 UP = EURUSD UP and vice-versa (positive correlation), BUT then I read this article: http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/01/...and-s-500.html

To whoever is in a position to clear my question TIA
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #878,402
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:02pm Feb 21, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting vox dei
At present, if S&P500 falls is EURUSD likely to fall too? I've been researching the correlations, but can't find a definitive answer. Historically, SP500 UP = EURUSD UP and vice-versa (positive correlation), BUT then I read this article: http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/01/...and-s-500.html To whoever is in a position to clear my question TIA
spx is not going to fall yet. it will make new highs for a few months. i wont be surprised if spx goes to 1910 before another big correction.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #878,403
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:06pm Feb 21, 2014 5:06pm
Anyone here is with a losing position open?
I think could help, I take requests to solve your losing positions, tell me your entry and I tell what you can do about it.
  • #878,404
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:08pm Feb 21, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} spx is not going to fall yet. it will make new highs for a few months. i wont be surprised if spx goes to 1910 before another big correction.
Hello ffleo,

Appreciate you trying to help, but that's not what I'm asking.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #878,405
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:13pm Feb 21, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} spx is not going to fall yet. it will make new highs for a few months. i wont be surprised if spx goes to 1910 before another big correction.
I think right now is the perfect time to short S&P, I don't think it will make new all time highs next weeks. Its a temporarly top, then after that it make new all time highs again
  • #878,406
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:29pm Feb 21, 2014 5:29pm
Quoting vox dei
At present, if S&P500 falls is EURUSD likely to fall too? I've been researching the correlations, but can't find a definitive answer. Historically, SP500 UP = EURUSD UP and vice-versa (positive correlation), BUT then I read this article: http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/01/...and-s-500.html To whoever is in a position to clear my question TIA
Yes but only if its a big agressive sell-off, panic like.
  • #878,407
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:35pm Feb 21, 2014 5:35pm
Quoting Yolandi
{quote} Yes but only if its a big agressive sell-off, panic like.
Hello Yolandi,

Thanks for your reply. So just for confirmation you're saying SPX and EU are still positively correlated BUT their correlation is not very strong?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #878,408
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:37pm Feb 21, 2014 5:37pm
My first charts here.
I expect the price to reach 1.3810-1.3830 and then pull back because of 6-year falling trendline in that area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmonthly.png Size: 20 KB
  • #878,409
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:40pm Feb 21, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Hello Yolandi, Thanks for your reply. So just for confirmation you're saying SPX and EU are still positively correlated BUT their correlation is not very strong?
At this moment S&P and EU are not correlated, its 0. But if S&P starts to sell-off sharply and that takes a toll on risk, it will drop Eur/Usd.So under the circumstances we are now S&P can go down or up it wont matter to EU but that changes on a more extreme event.
  • #878,410
  • Feb 21, 2014 5:46pm Feb 21, 2014 5:46pm
Quoting Yolandi
{quote} At this moment S&P and EU are not correlated, its 0. But if S&P starts to sell-off sharply and that takes a toll on risk, it will drop Eur/Usd.So under the circumstances we are now S&P can go down or up it wont matter to EU but that changes on a more extreme event.
That clears my question. Thanks again.

Oh and btw I'm of the same opinion as you: SP500 is a short atm.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #878,411
  • Feb 22, 2014 2:18am Feb 22, 2014 2:18am
Quoting Citiboy
This currency has become the forgotten one it seems. Reading all these news stories about no trends in FX markets, 7 year lows in 3 month volatility, flat positioning in EUR for months.... I honestly think the start of something big is on the horizon here. The Dollar Index chart seems to be bottoming out at 80.00... Weekly bollinger bands are as tight as they have been in almost 15 years. EURUSD has the potential to be by far, FAR, the biggest financial market trend of the next 2 years. As we go into the price/credit information next week I will...

Sure that the bundesbank will agree to EUR devaluing? Angela Merkel mentioned a EUR should be ard 1.3 to 1.32 and germany probably can survive with eur up to 1.45.

right now, the talk about negative interest rates has been raised by Nowotny, so far we see eur crash to 1.36 and raise up spectacularly. Germany would never agree to Japan's or USA style of QE, buying of foreign bonds is definitely a no-no, there isnt much ammunitions left to fight Japan's style of deflation in Europe.

I guess ECB could cut interest rate, but hardly much of an impact, the americans and japanese would buy the EUR right up again after it crash to say 1.35/1.36 right up to 1.38/1.40...lol

Negative interest rates will have a broaded implications but so far, which central bank has done negative carry?
  • #878,412
  • Feb 22, 2014 3:20am Feb 22, 2014 3:20am
Hi there guys, when does bitcoin expire? with my broker, gox will close on 1st of march...does that sound about right? or is it different for everybody else?
any ideas will help thanks
  • #878,413
  • Feb 22, 2014 4:10am Feb 22, 2014 4:10am
from 3638 i will try to buy for 3698. if fail then eight is not my lucky number
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #878,414
  • Feb 22, 2014 6:29am Feb 22, 2014 6:29am
Quoting ud1nh0
from 3638 i will try to buy for 3698. if fail then eight is not my lucky number
So you are trading after lucky numbers? Interesting approach, never thought of this one.

Ehm, are you making money? Curious...
  • #878,415
  • Feb 22, 2014 6:50am Feb 22, 2014 6:50am
Quoting johnsmith78
{quote} Sure that the bundesbank will agree to EUR devaluing? Angela Merkel mentioned a EUR should be ard 1.3 to 1.32 and germany probably can survive with eur up to 1.45. right now, the talk about negative interest rates has been raised by Nowotny, so far we see eur crash to 1.36 and raise up spectacularly. Germany would never agree to Japan's or USA style of QE, buying of foreign bonds is definitely a no-no, there isnt much ammunitions left to fight Japan's style of deflation in Europe. I guess ECB could cut interest rate, but hardly much of an...
Id say this whole story is more about sell the rumour buy the facts. Its easier when Euro CPI data comes out comes lower than expected to Let Draghi and his cohorts scream about deflation so the eur/usd drops temporally rather than actually implanting negative deposit rates. So in short they wont do negative carry but they will try to make deflation sound like the next big bad bully around the corner. Combine the deflation talk with Reducing QE in the USA and you have enough to keep euro range bound in the 1,3- 1,39 area until QE 3 has ended entirely
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #878,416
  • Feb 22, 2014 8:36am Feb 22, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Nope, just completely fed up with you and enjoying the silence. You still suck Bye
hey.. long time no see... i cant pm you..
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #878,417
  • Feb 22, 2014 8:37am Feb 22, 2014 8:37am
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A1L08J20140222

I understand the points you all are making about Germany not allowing QE, however; I think the fact that the Bundesbank is effectively recommending that the ECB (temporarily) end sterilization of the SMP signals a softening of their stance on QE. Ultimately Germany has by far the most to lose if the Eurozone splits up, and proceeding with "screw the other guys our economy is fine" will not work in the medium term. As long as the periphery countries are struggling and feel that Germany doesn't sympathize, this will stoke anti-Euro political parties and threaten the entire system. The ECB and the Germans know that a QE program is necessary, they are just delaying as long as possible the actual use of it. Negative rates to the tune of -0.15% wont do very much, and will harm banks that desperately need to repair their balance sheets. They will likely end SMP sterilization at some point soon, which would be the start towards QE.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #878,418
  • Feb 22, 2014 8:37am Feb 22, 2014 8:37am
Quoting viitrader
Hi there guys, when does bitcoin expire? with my broker, gox will close on 1st of march...does that sound about right? or is it different for everybody else? any ideas will help thanks
are you talking about actual bitcoins or CFD???
actual bitcoins dont expire...
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #878,419
  • Feb 22, 2014 9:32am Feb 22, 2014 9:32am
Quoting Citiboy
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A1L08J20140222 I understand the points you all are making about Germany not allowing QE, however; I think the fact that the Bundesbank is effectively recommending that the ECB (temporarily) end sterilization of the SMP signals a softening of their stance on QE. Ultimately Germany has by far the most to lose if the Eurozone splits up, and proceeding with "screw...
And you think eur/usd exchange rate would go down because ECB goes into QE?
I want to see everyones face when ECB does it and euro still shots up.
  • #878,420
  • Feb 22, 2014 11:52am Feb 22, 2014 11:52am
Quoting Yolandi
Anyone here is with a losing position open? I think could help, I take requests to solve your losing positions, tell me your entry and I tell what you can do about it.
Got a long near 1,60, what should i do boss ?
COT: The precious data ignored
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