102.9xx-103.0xx MA 200 on H4
- #43,401
- Feb 21, 2014 12:12am Feb 21, 2014 12:12am
- | Joined Nov 2012 | Status: blind eyes... | 1,018 Posts
- #43,402
- Feb 21, 2014 12:27am Feb 21, 2014 12:27am
{quote} I am fine thanks been buying dips. It's Friday usually profit takings at the mid of London or later US session, you might close some (partial) of the buy in profits. The upside risk now is 102.80/103.00
- #43,403
- Feb 21, 2014 2:45am Feb 21, 2014 2:45am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: CoC'd again ! | 8,578 Posts
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
- #43,404
- Feb 21, 2014 3:16am Feb 21, 2014 3:16am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts
Gone to a better place
- #43,405
- Feb 21, 2014 3:40am Feb 21, 2014 3:40am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
H4 - UsdJpy is ready to accomplish the AB=CD pattern.
103.000-103.600
103.000-103.600
f(z)=z2+c
- #43,406
- Feb 21, 2014 4:22am Feb 21, 2014 4:22am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
f(z)=z2+c
- #43,407
- Feb 21, 2014 8:05am Feb 21, 2014 8:05am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #43,409
- Feb 21, 2014 8:12am Feb 21, 2014 8:12am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
I wouldn't get all happy about this move higher. 10-year yields are coming off with SPX Futures. Fundamentally, it makes no sense and just because they want it to doesn't mean it will sustain these higher levels. Something smells like desperation.
It appears the former correlations USDJPY had with SPX and rates have disconnected a bit in the past few weeks. Basically since the last payrolls number stocks have risen, and yields along with them but USDJPY has not responded as predictably. This has intensified since the Japanese GDP report this past weekend. I think USDJPY could begin to trade more on Japanese fundamentals, may be a result of specs and carry traders getting cleaned out on the way down from 105. Now theres not many people left to squeeze, so new traders come in to trade based on Japanese fundamentals and Nikkei performance. Just my thought.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #43,410
- Feb 21, 2014 8:13am Feb 21, 2014 8:13am
- | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Bear | 1,009 Posts
I wouldn't get all happy about this move higher. 10-year yields are coming off with SPX Futures. Fundamentally, it makes no sense and just because they want it to doesn't mean it will sustain these higher levels. Something smells like desperation.
- #43,411
- Feb 21, 2014 8:14am Feb 21, 2014 8:14am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Fundamentally it does make sense, Japans economy is doing way worse than expected. USDJPY is trading on fundamentals, the old correlations to stocks and rates are taking a back seat for now.
But it was damn useful to be able to trade SPX thru USDJPY for a few weeks there....
But it was damn useful to be able to trade SPX thru USDJPY for a few weeks there....
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #43,412
- Feb 21, 2014 8:20am Feb 21, 2014 8:20am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #43,413
- Feb 21, 2014 8:23am Feb 21, 2014 8:23am
- | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Bear | 1,009 Posts
Will be looking for close above 102.660 to buy
If I miss the train, so be it
If I miss the train, so be it
{quote} It appears the former correlations USDJPY had with SPX and rates have disconnected a bit in the past few weeks. Basically since the last payrolls number stocks have risen, and yields along with them but USDJPY has not responded as predictably. This has intensified since the Japanese GDP report this past weekend. I think USDJPY could begin to trade more on Japanese fundamentals, may be a result of specs and carry traders getting cleaned out on the way down from 105. Now theres not many people left to squeeze, so new traders come in to trade...
Yes, the price action in U/J has been something of a conundrum over the past several weeks; not following the old "rules" very well. The movement in the Nikkei has also decoupled from the rest of the equity markets.
Japanese fundamentals have eroded quite a bit lately and that part makes sense. However, as equity markets continue higher, the U/J hasn't shown near as much zeal. In fact, as markets turn all time highs, it should be noted that the pair has basically gone nowhere, even though it is obvious that it wants to move higher. Every down tick seems to be met with a wall of bids that keep the thing afloat.
To me, it seems like they are defending 102 tooth and nail and that never seems to work out very well. But perhaps it is different this time. However, with equity markets clawing just to maintain and the rest of the world on fire, I don't see how it can be managed over the medium term.
Thanks again for your input and analysis.
- #43,418
- Feb 21, 2014 9:02am Feb 21, 2014 9:02am
- | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Bear | 1,009 Posts
Will be looking for close above 102.660 to buy If I miss the train, so be it
staying away from this for now
- #43,419
- Feb 21, 2014 9:29am Feb 21, 2014 9:29am
The idea that it is Japanese fundamentals driving the price action in the pair begs several questions: 1. Why are they defending 102 from the downside instead of pounding it down below 110? 2. Why are the 10-year yield chart and the U/J nearly identical? 3. Why does the ramp in the pair occur in the European and US sessions and not the Asia session?
Sorry , May i ask you some question ?
Why and how the Tnote 10years yeld and U/j are correlated ?
Please sorry for my english and thanks a lot
