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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,381
  • Feb 20, 2014 8:33am Feb 20, 2014 8:33am
Quoting 5abi
USDJPY Long: Insane buying going on in USDJPY. I am long @ 102.30 for a move up to 103.25. This thing is ripe to spring up, the MM have accumulated what they wanted now they want to see sweet signs ($$$) of profit ring in.
just shorted EJ and AJ, have fun! GL
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #43,382
  • Feb 20, 2014 8:36am Feb 20, 2014 8:36am
Quoting 5abi
USDJPY Long: Insane buying going on in USDJPY. I am long @ 102.30 for a move up to 103.25. This thing is ripe to spring up, the MM have accumulated what they wanted now they want to see sweet signs ($$$) of profit ring in.

Errrmmm..
Maybe not so much this time. Global stocks are about ready to roll over here, starting with the Nikkei.
The H4 is showing an incomplete zigzag on the superZUPer and that will close the downside triangle before a move higher.
The thing is, there is a rising trendline on the H4 as well and priced is poised to break below it, possibly sending the pair down to the first Weekly Support level. Price has already poked at the trendline twice over the past week...and the third time's the charm.

Of course, I may be completely wrong about that.
  • #43,383
  • Feb 20, 2014 8:42am Feb 20, 2014 8:42am
Home sales number tomorrow, if good will be good for UJ, if bad will be blamed on bad weather here in the US and that too will be good for UJ. So in a win-win situation, I go with the least resistance which is a move up. EJ and GJ might even be better longs but I am just wary of big GBP news tomorrow but you could golong with EURGBP to hedge if concerned...

Quoting Orly
{quote} Errrmmm.. Maybe not so much this time. Global stocks are about ready to roll over here, starting with the Nikkei. The H4 is showing an incomplete zigzag on the superZUPer and that will close the downside triangle before a move higher. The thing is, there is a rising trendline on the H4 as well and priced is poised to break below it, possibly sending the pair down to the first Weekly Support level. Price has already poked at the trendline twice over the past week...and the third time's the charm. Of course, I may be completely wrong about...
Its all in the mind.
  • #43,384
  • Feb 20, 2014 8:51am Feb 20, 2014 8:51am
Nng an incomplete zigzag on the superZUPer and that will close the downside triangle before a move higher. The thing is, there is a rising trendline on the H4 as well and priced is poised to break below it, possibly sending the pair down to the first Weekly Support level. Price has already poked at the trendline twice over the past week...and the third time's the charm. Of course, I may be completely wrong about that. [/quote]

Nothing is ever 100%
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #43,385
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:14am Feb 20, 2014 9:14am
Quoting Rtm
Nng an incomplete zigzag on the superZUPer and that will close the downside triangle before a move higher. The thing is, there is a rising trendline on the H4 as well and priced is poised to break below it, possibly sending the pair down to the first Weekly Support level. Price has already poked at the trendline twice over the past week...and the third time's the charm. Of course, I may be completely wrong about that.
Nothing is ever 100% [/quote]


Of course it isn't. That's why we play the probabilities.

(And why we wish each other luck...)

  • #43,386
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:34am Feb 20, 2014 9:34am
Finally, after the usual insane trap moves, UsdJpy can reach 103.000, than 103.400-600 in my opinion (of course maybe after some crazy behave).
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,387
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:52am Feb 20, 2014 9:52am
USDJPY struggling around the 102.40

Possible Bull trap?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-02-20 at 10.52.23 AM.png Size: 18 KB


Iv noticed the JPY are ramping right now but non of their correlated pairs that move with it are ramping down with it.
He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.
  • #43,388
  • Feb 20, 2014 10:00am Feb 20, 2014 10:00am
Quoting TheDDReport
USDJPY struggling around the 102.40 Possible Bull trap? {image} Iv noticed the JPY are ramping right now but non of their correlated pairs that move with it are ramping down with it.
I think today is a huge bear trap, but will see.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,389
  • Feb 20, 2014 10:39am Feb 20, 2014 10:39am
UsdJpy - M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.02.20. UsdJpy M15 cup&holder.png Size: 30 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,390
  • Feb 20, 2014 12:48pm Feb 20, 2014 12:48pm
Quoting hathor
UsdJpy - M15 {image}

what does the cup and handle mean ?
  • #43,391
  • Feb 20, 2014 12:54pm Feb 20, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting allisonmagic
{quote} what does the cup and handle mean ?
It's a very old stock trading pattern. Do you have access to the Internet? You should look it up. :0

The problem with this chart is that it is not a true cup with handle. Usually, the "handle" only retraces between the 12 and 38 Fibo levels relative to the top and bottom of the cup. This one retraces back to the bottom of the cup. In my humble opinion, this negates the formation.

But...someone may want you to believe that it is a cup with handle...

  • #43,392
  • Feb 20, 2014 12:55pm Feb 20, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting allisonmagic
{quote} what does the cup and handle mean ?
Google is our friend

A cup and handle pattern resembles the shape of a tea cup on a chart. This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.

The cup-and-handle pattern is preceded by an upward move, which stalls and sells off. The sell-off is what forms the initial part of this pattern. After the sell-off, the security will basically trade flat for an extended period of time, with no clear trend. The next part of the pattern is the upward move back towards the peak of the preceding upward move. The last part of the pattern, known as the handle, is a relatively smaller downward move before the security moves higher and continues the previous trend.
  • #43,393
  • Feb 20, 2014 1:03pm Feb 20, 2014 1:03pm
Hello US/JPY

Still got 5 longs under water

3 short in profit

Down to small trades

With these random crappy

hard to read moves

We burst either will sort my chart out
  • #43,394
  • Feb 20, 2014 2:14pm Feb 20, 2014 2:14pm
Right out of the box, the Japanese are going to ramp it, British-style. Front-running...in desperation? Or for real?

I am thinking it is going to be funny when the BoJ Minutes are released and the pair falls through the floor at Tokyo open.

  • #43,395
  • Feb 20, 2014 2:37pm Feb 20, 2014 2:37pm
UJ Daily

Bulls in control side by side long legged doji's

Can they keep it up?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Daily.png Size: 27 KB
  • #43,396
  • Feb 20, 2014 3:16pm Feb 20, 2014 3:16pm
UJ is in a ascending triangle. Last day indices were bullish. Now have to see which side it breaks out...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.png Size: 41 KB
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #43,397
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:12pm Feb 20, 2014 9:12pm
After party BOJ minutes this baby will hit the road to the sky
  • #43,398
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:22pm Feb 20, 2014 9:22pm
102.95 Looks to me like it will be tough to pass that. I think 102. 70 zone is a trap area for bulls. I would say down once price gets to 102.99 or that area and back to at least 101 before the rocketship up. Too many people probably expecting uptrend after 102.70. A good retail price for the big guys to sell to those waiting that break. Drop to 101 after all the retailers panic and buy from retail and go right on up. Was rinse repeat as per usual. 104.34 is calling but not just yet.
  • #43,399
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:28pm Feb 20, 2014 9:28pm
Hi Ken, how are you these days?
Seems UJ's going to 102.70 zone, very close to one of my long positions. What do you think about closing the trade? I need your advise again.
Good luck and good trading! Bro
  • #43,400
  • Feb 20, 2014 9:52pm Feb 20, 2014 9:52pm
Quoting linmou
Hi Ken, how are you these days? Seems UJ's going to 102.70 zone, very close to one of my long positions. What do you think about closing the trade? I need your advise again. Good luck and good trading! Bro
I am fine thanks been buying dips.

It's Friday usually profit takings at the mid of London or later US session, you might close some (partial) of the buy in profits. The upside risk now is 102.80/103.00
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