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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #1,401
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:16am Feb 19, 2014 5:16am
Quoting mehmed92
{quote} Hi Steve I think we don't have confirmed long T5_2_2 because the price didn't travel from under %23.6=1.34097 this year and also we don't have confirmed long T4Y_1130 because the price didn't travel from 59 pip under %100=1.34710 this year
Hi - I think the PA in the preceding year counts. If you look at a number of the example charts Bobi used he seems to do that.

Below is an example of the T5_2_2 that Bob uses right from the begining of 2013. He was clearly factoring in the move down in 2012 preceding it.

Quoting aebab
Another example: GBP_USD The baseline is 1.6635 and the phase size=965 pips {image}
I know some here don't agree and that's fine,ibut on the larger templates I think it is logical. Think of it this way. The levels are set by the previous years HLC. So if last years PA sets the levels, does it not stand to reason that it impacts how we trade the levels this year?
  • #1,402
  • Feb 19, 2014 5:27am Feb 19, 2014 5:27am
Quoting armyda
i think a few analisys is important GU TF 15min the price is beneath MM 10 50 and 200 exp so the short has good chances
If it gives you confidence in the trade then great.

But, if Bobi is right that news, war, famine won't stop a target being met, then a lagging indicator won't either (just playing).

One of the best things for me about trading Abonacci is that is gives me confidence. I rarely use other indicators and have always found MAs more unreliable than not. (Every big move involves an MA cross (price or other MA), but not every MA cross leads to a big move etc).

I have traded Ichimoku quite a lot and I will sometimes throw that on the chart to see how things are lining up with the Kumo, Kijun, Tenken and Chikou - but it never changes my mind - it's more out of interest.

But like I said, combining abonacci templates with other strategies is one way to trade. Perhaps using the 20 MA for SL is another thing to look at.
  • #1,403
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:05am Feb 19, 2014 6:05am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} If it gives you confidence in the trade then great. But, if Bobi is right that news, war, famine won't stop a target being met, then a lagging indicator won't either (just playing). One of the best things for me about trading Abonacci is that is gives me confidence. I rarely use other indicators and have always found MAs more unreliable than not. (Every big move involves an MA cross (price or other MA), but not every MA cross leads to a big move etc). I have traded Ichimoku quite a lot and I will sometimes throw that on the chart...
thnk'you so much for all
  • #1,404
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:27am Feb 19, 2014 6:27am
Quoting hollowhead
Sell GU T5_103
TP Hit
  • #1,405
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:30am Feb 19, 2014 6:30am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} TP Hit
  • #1,406
  • Feb 19, 2014 9:54am Feb 19, 2014 9:54am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hi - I think the PA in the preceding year counts. If you look at a number of the example charts Bobi used he seems to do that. Below is an example of the T5_2_2 that Bob uses right from the begining of 2013. He was clearly factoring in the move down in 2012 preceding it. {quote} I know some here don't agree and that's fine,ibut on the larger templates I think it is logical. Think of it this way. The levels are set by the previous years HLC. So if last years PA sets the levels, does it not stand to reason that it impacts how we trade the...
But If you look at the GBP/USD chart the beginning of 2013 price traveled from over %76.4=1.35123 in 2013/2/1 and broke %50=1.32575
  • #1,407
  • Feb 19, 2014 10:10am Feb 19, 2014 10:10am
Quoting mehmed92
{quote} But If you look at the GBP/USD chart the beginning of 2013 price traveled from over %76.4=1.35123 in 2013/2/1 and broke %50=1.32575
Fair enough mehmed92!! (I couldn't see the top of the wick, but you're right).

But I'd like to draw your attention to Bobi's post below referring to the T4Y_1130. The blue circle on far left of the chart is referencing the second phase trade (if price goes back to 23% and then meets 38% it go again to 50%). It seems to be Bobi is using the preceding year's PA to validate it.

Quoting aebab
Introduction of T4Y_1130 Template Very very accurate and useful template The T4Y_1130
I could easily be wrong (I often am) so if you don't want to consider it as valid then that's cool by me. As far as I'm concerned its a moot point and academic as Bobi has called a level of 1.44 for EU this year. And as Jaylovin says Bobi is really accurate - so I am expecting 1.44 sometime this year.

Green pips to you
  • #1,408
  • Feb 19, 2014 4:07pm Feb 19, 2014 4:07pm
I'm sure I posted something earlier and its not here now
  • #1,409
  • Feb 19, 2014 4:25pm Feb 19, 2014 4:25pm
I'll try again. I've been thinking about other ways to trade abonacci if you are unable to hedge. So how about this...

1. Trade only T4F template (and T5_103 under certain conditions).
2. Enter on the 'setup trade' (ie for a long, price comes from 76.4% of lower phase, and enter of the break 38.2% (by say 10 pips). Set a target for 74 pips (the 76.4%).
3. Set your SL for 10pips below the 100% (94 pips or so)
4. Put a pending Sell at the same place as your SL (or as close as you broker allows) with a TP of 167 pips (the 23.6%).

You should either get a 74pip win
or
a 94pip loss followed by a 167pip win (total 73pips)

5. You could then take any T5_103, which breaks and has a TP falling within the pending trade (as this has the most certainty to it).

Hope that makes sense and is just a suggestion to think about.
  • #1,410
  • Feb 19, 2014 6:14pm Feb 19, 2014 6:14pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Fair enough mehmed92!! (I couldn't see the top of the wick, but you're right). But I'd like to draw your attention to Bobi's post below referring to the T4Y_1130. The blue circle on far left of the chart is referencing the second phase trade (if price goes back to 23% and then meets 38% it go again to 50%). It seems to be Bobi is using the preceding year's PA to validate it. {quote} I could easily be wrong (I often am) so if you don't want to consider it as valid then that's cool by me. As far as I'm concerned its a moot point and academic...
When I look at post 193 it indicates clearly (to me) that price movement can carryover to the next year on these charts particularly when going for completion.
  • #1,411
  • Feb 20, 2014 3:19am Feb 20, 2014 3:19am
A bit late but there are two more new shorts triggered

AU T5_103 short - TP 0.89297
EU T5_103 short - TP 1.36617
  • #1,412
  • Feb 20, 2014 5:04am Feb 20, 2014 5:04am
Quoting hollowhead
A bit late but there are two more new shorts triggered AU T5_103 short - TP 0.89297 EU T5_103 short - TP 1.36617
I'm usually glad when I find out late. It gives me the chance to get in on the retrace before it reached the profit target, have less drawdown
and more pips.
  • #1,413
  • Feb 20, 2014 5:07am Feb 20, 2014 5:07am
Quoting biganc
{quote} I'm usually glad when I find out late. It gives me the chance to get in on the retrace before it reached the profit target, have less drawdown and more pips.
It's a good approach.
  • #1,414
  • Feb 20, 2014 5:54am Feb 20, 2014 5:54am
Quoting biganc
{quote} I'm usually glad when I find out late. It gives me the chance to get in on the retrace before it reached the profit target, have less drawdown and more pips.
Getting close to time to enter. Retrace is in progress for the 103 audusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdretrace.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #1,415
  • Feb 20, 2014 6:07am Feb 20, 2014 6:07am
I entered audusd based on the 103 short after the retrace at .8991
  • #1,416
  • Feb 20, 2014 10:12am Feb 20, 2014 10:12am
Hi,

Anyone has analyze this ? from template T4Y_680 GBP/USD I marked with arrow down, from the rules from template
"We can say 76.4% is broken when price is traveling from 0%+59 of upper phase and falls 14 pips below 76.4% level of current phase."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbuusd6802.png Size: 42 KB


Price has gone from upper phase to 76.4% right ? But the price won't go down to 50%

And the second arrow [arrow up], price has gone from lower phase to 23.6%, but It won't go up again.

The second case is from AUD / USD T4Y_1130

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1130.png Size: 39 KB


Price has gone from lower phase too, but It won't gone further to 50%

Does my analysis wrong ? Or my baseline wrong ? T4Y_680 GBP/USD is 1.6528
and my baseline for T4Y_1130 AUD/USD is 0.9889
May the odds be ever in your favor
  • #1,417
  • Feb 20, 2014 10:42am Feb 20, 2014 10:42am
Just got curious, if anyone has tried to make a EA on this strategy ?
Thanks,


SP
  • #1,418
  • Feb 20, 2014 10:51am Feb 20, 2014 10:51am
Quoting HanHanid
Hi, Anyone has analyze this ? from template T4Y_680 GBP/USD I marked with arrow down, from the rules from template "We can say 76.4% is broken when price is traveling from 0%+59 of upper phase and falls 14 pips below 76.4% level of current phase." {image} Price has gone from upper phase to 76.4% right ? But the price won't go down to 50% And the second arrow [arrow up], price has gone from lower phase to 23.6%, but It won't go up again. The second case is from AUD / USD T4Y_1130 {image} Price has gone from lower phase too, but It won't gone further...
Hi Hanid - Yes your analysis is spot on. On GU we have two contrary T4Y_680 signals and on AU there is a TT4Y_1130 long signal.

I am not sure what you mean by 'price won't go'. Just because it hasn't yet, doesn't mean it won't. These larger templates are 180pip plus moves, and normally those kind of moves take some back and forwards. As you know price doesn't move in a straight line, and often goes along way from where it eventually ends up. But, I believe the targets are still valid...
  • #1,419
  • Feb 20, 2014 11:00am Feb 20, 2014 11:00am
Quoting spuspala
Just got curious, if anyone has tried to make a EA on this strategy ? Thanks, SP
Not that I know of. Personally I am never sure why people want an EA (unless they are scalping ticks in seconds). IMHO there is too much analysis required across the templates for an EA to be successful. And as there is no clear, accepted or tested MM I am not sure of the benefits. If we had baselines for many pairs then an indicator alert might be helpful (but there is already an 'alerter' horizontal line indicator you can use), but with only three pairs a handful of templates most of which (except the T5_103) signal very occasionally I'm not sure of the benefits.

I think its best to check the templates and charts occasionally, do your analysis and decide your strategy and then each day set the pending orders you are prepared to take.
  • #1,420
  • Feb 20, 2014 11:05am Feb 20, 2014 11:05am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hi Hanid - Yes your analysis is spot on. On GU we have two contrary T4Y_680 signals and on AU there is a TT4Y_1130 long signal. I am not sure what you mean by 'price won't go'. Just because it hasn't yet, doesn't mean it won't. These larger templates are 180pip plus moves, and normally those kind of moves take some back and forwards. As you know price doesn't move in a straight line, and often goes along way from where it eventually ends up. But, I believe the targets are still valid...

yup, I know I won't go in a straight line, but I go the other direction, and won't make it too. so sometimes I doubt whether there's something wrong...
May the odds be ever in your favor
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