Are support and resistance levels predetermined? | Page 69 | Forex Factory

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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #1,361
  • Feb 18, 2014 7:56am Feb 18, 2014 7:56am
For the gu 103 short, I waited for the retrace before I got in so hopefully there will not be much
drawdown.
  • #1,362
  • Edited 9:41am Feb 18, 2014 8:44am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting biganc
For the gu 103 short, I waited for the retrace before I got in so hopefully there will not be much drawdown.
Hi Al - You're right with the 680 short, and that has been what I have been targeting But if you don't mind me saying you need to be really cautious.

There is also a 680 long active (TP 1.6868),
there is a T5_2_2 (965) long active (TP 1.67723),
and a T4Y_1130 long active (1.6827)

We are currently nearer those targets than the short 680 so I am preparing myself for it to keep going up. I would prefer a nice drop and then another rise, but I'm getting prepared for further possible highs to 1.6868.

Now if it goes 200pips higher than that, then a T5_1030 (103x10) will be triggered!!

EDIT changed 50pips to 200pips to activate a T5_1030 (was looking at hte wrong line!!)
  • #1,363
  • Feb 18, 2014 8:48am Feb 18, 2014 8:48am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hi Al - You're right with the 680 short, and that has been what I have been targeting But if you don't mind me saying you need to be really cautious. There is also a 680 long active (TP 1.6868), there is a T5_2_2 (965) long active (TP 1.67723), and a T4Y_1130 long active (1.6827) We are currently nearer those targets than the short 680 so I am preparing myself for it to keep going up. I would prefer a nice drop and then another rise, but I'm getting prepared for further possible highs to 1.6868. Now if it goes 50pips higher than that, then...
Tomorrow there are so many news about gu that the problem will resolveor from side or from other side......
  • #1,364
  • Feb 18, 2014 8:50am Feb 18, 2014 8:50am
Quoting armyda
{quote} Tomorrow there are so many news about gu that the problem will resolveor from side or from other side......
the veil will fall
  • #1,365
  • Feb 18, 2014 8:53am Feb 18, 2014 8:53am
Quoting armyda
{quote} Tomorrow there are so many news about gu that the problem will resolveor from side or from other side......
That's true - the problem with a lot of news on one release comes when it's mixed - you can end up with a stale mate, but hopefully we'll get some momentum either way and finish off some large template targets. If it rises I am looking to 1.69 to be an area to give us a possible reversal.
  • #1,366
  • Feb 18, 2014 8:58am Feb 18, 2014 8:58am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} That's true - the problem with a lot of news on one release comes when it's mixed - you can end up with a stale mate, but hopefully we'll get some momentum either way and finish off some large template targets. If it rises I am looking to 1.69 to be an area to give us a possible reversal.
the problem about this sistem is resist resist resist resist.
but it is the same story.If you have a big money yu can resist if you have a small hoard (like me) can you trade with 0,01 lots
  • #1,367
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:12am Feb 18, 2014 9:12am
Quoting armyda
{quote} the problem about this sistem is resist resist resist resist. but it is the same story.If you have a big money yu can resist if you have a small hoard (like me) can you trade with 0,01 lots
Yep - the MM with these templates is the killer. But don't forget, Bobi did suggest using the templates alongside other systems. He originally introduced the templates to give members a different market perspective - that price is predetermined. Folk could always trade another system, that gives clear MM, but use abonacci template anaylysis for trend/direction/reversal area determination.

Remember this is all about support and resistance. Have you noticed how often and T5_103 trade triggers and then reverses straight away, or comes back to retest the level? Just like traditional SR levels that are hand drawn (if you get them right!). So, what are the ways to trade S/R? Break and retest? So we could always do the same.

Let the trade break, and look for the pullback back and retest - then take it. Then for example on a long you have resistance turned support and somewhere to put your SL (say 3 pips under the 38.6% line). That would give you a 40 pip target, with 10 pip SL, 1:4RR with a confirmed bounce?

I haven't back tested it - but it would be interesting to see what the win rate is, no?
  • #1,368
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:02am Feb 18, 2014 10:02am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Yep - the MM with these templates is the killer. But don't forget, Bobi did suggest using the templates alongside other systems. He originally introduced the templates to give members a different market perspective - that price is predetermined. Folk could always trade another system, that gives clear MM, but use abonacci template anaylysis for trend/direction/reversal area determination. Remember this is all about support and resistance. Have you noticed how often and T5_103 trade triggers and then reverses straight away, or comes back...
you are right but there are many key psicological factors that work against this theory
  • #1,369
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:06am Feb 18, 2014 10:06am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Yep - the MM with these templates is the killer.
New to the forum, been following and trading this for a while, thanks Bobi, Hollowhead and everyone.

Rather than get involved in hedges and drawdowns I've been taking a 40 pip stopout on the 103 phase and simply reentering the trade in either direction and doubling the steak size per pip each time, when it passes the entry point again. Ok you may need to reverse two or three times but you get your pips in the finish without paying roll etc and no hedging required.
  • #1,370
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:08am Feb 18, 2014 10:08am
Care to elaborate? What are you thinking of specifically?
  • #1,371
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:17am Feb 18, 2014 10:17am
Quoting hollowhead
Care to elaborate? What are you thinking of specifically?
when there are real money you see the grafic go down (if you long) or up if you short )and don't know where the price will give you right so if you haven't nerves very firm you can do many wrong things
  • #1,372
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:21am Feb 18, 2014 10:21am
Quoting armyda
{quote} when there are real money you see the grafic go down (if you long) or up if you short )and don't know where the price will give you right so if you haven't nerves very firm you can do many wrong things
but this is the trader life......
  • #1,373
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:35am Feb 18, 2014 10:35am
Quoting armyda
{quote} but this is the trader life......
That's true - there isn't a system created that gives you 100% confidence in the trade (this is the nearest I have found). Greed and fear have to be conquered for any type of trading.

One way you could look at would be to find a broker that allows micro-lot trading and hedging. Then try trading 2%-2.5% of account per trade. Calculate size by distance of opposite signal. ie for T5_103 I use 90pips, for T4Y I use 170pips for 680 I use 350pips. Now this 'only' gives 1%-1.25% per winner. But you know that with abonacci you have alot of winners, very few losers, and if you are compounding those wins it will grow nicely.

This is the MM I am using in the DemOlympics contest. I am figuring 2.5% risk per trade with hedging will give me enough room for large DD, which I know I will get. But if I am trading in line with larger template targets, it should be good. I have been doing pretty much the same with my live account (I don't take eveytrade, but most of them).
  • #1,374
  • Feb 18, 2014 10:40am Feb 18, 2014 10:40am
Quoting biganc
For the gu 103 short, I waited for the retrace before I got in so hopefully there will not be much drawdown.
- Armyda - this is the other way to go. Wait for it to retrace and enter early. The signal has already been given - the target is determined. Don't enter, wait for it to go the opposite direction, read the PA and enter further away. Less DD, more profit . Some of my best wins have been doing this accidentally. If I have missed a signal and price has gone the opposite direction I have got in and it's produced nice profits.
  • #1,375
  • Edited 11:37am Feb 18, 2014 11:07am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} That's true - there isn't a system created that gives you 100% confidence in the trade (this is the nearest I have found). Greed and fear have to be conquered for any type of trading. One way you could look at would be to find a broker that allows micro-lot trading and hedging. Then try trading 2%-2.5% of account per trade. Calculate size by distance of opposite signal. ie for T5_103 I use 90pips, for T4Y I use 170pips for 680 I use 350pips. Now this 'only' gives 1%-1.25% per winner. But you know that with abonacci you have alot of winners,...
Hi Steve
hedging in USA is forbidden and also we Know in this system is hard to find sl what should we do when we trade in us
  • #1,376
  • Feb 18, 2014 11:16am Feb 18, 2014 11:16am
[quote=hollowhead;7288606]
Quoting eurozo
{quote} Thanks Zo - that's the way it goes. Since when I started trading abonacci I have hardly closed any trades early and closed VERY few for a loss. But the markets are frustrating me at the moment. I seem to have lost clarity in how I am trading and I am making bad decisions.


Hollowhead I'm sure it's temporary. You are my hero!!!!! Are you using any other indicators right now with this crazy market?





Zo
Staircase down to ride the elevator up.....wait..wait..wait for it
  • #1,377
  • Feb 18, 2014 11:38am Feb 18, 2014 11:38am
Quoting mehmed92
{quote} Hi Steve hedging in USA is forbidden and also we Know in this system is hard to find sl what should when we trade in us
I think my US friends have two options. 1. Open an account with a broker that is abroad. 2. Open another account with another broker and use it for hedge trades.

I know there have been several threads on FF regarding this, and I'm sure you'll be able to find someone who does it to guide you. I'm pretty sure someone suggested how to do it in this thread - failry early on - i'll see if I can find it.
  • #1,378
  • Feb 18, 2014 11:42am Feb 18, 2014 11:42am
[quote=eurozo;7289359]
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Hollowhead I'm sure it's temporary. You are my hero!!!!! Are you using any other indicators right now with this crazy market? Zo
I am 100% certain it will be temporary - but it's very kind of you.

I tend to draw a few trend lines and obcious SR from the chart. But I don't pay much attention to them!!. They reassure me when I am in doubt, particularly if I am unlocking a hedge, which entails closing a trade leaving one open that is already in DD. I ahve to be certain that it is going to reverse. I tend to look for as much confluence as I can find. Ideally large templates completing, no more templates in that direction and if its near a TL, BRN, or big SR, I feel much better abou the trade. But I always ready to put the hedge back on.
  • #1,379
  • Feb 18, 2014 11:48am Feb 18, 2014 11:48am
Quoting mehmed92
{quote} Hi Steve hedging in USA is forbidden and also we Know in this system is hard to find sl what should we do when we trade in us
Here you go

Quoting EmeraldEyes
The way around it in the US is to open another sub-acct with your broker for those hedged trades
  • #1,380
  • Feb 18, 2014 11:51am Feb 18, 2014 11:51am
Can someone plz tell me what is considered for a support or resistance line to be broken? Is it 5 pips? Is it 10 pips? Is it 25 pips? Or is it a candle closing above/below the line? If yes, how does that translate where the candle is part of a bigger candle on a higher chart?
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