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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,281
  • Feb 18, 2014 3:20am Feb 18, 2014 3:20am
I agree with everything you wrote there except you put 'savers' when you should have put 'debtors'.

The hike in sales tax is meant to impress the world that Japan is trying to keep its government debt under control. IMHO it is lip-service, the debt is so huge that it will take decades to erode and that is assuming that the Japanese can actually get to a point where the debt starts to decrease.

The sales tax has another important aspect, it directly contributes to consumer price inflation.
Expect to see this creeping up some more, definitely next year if not before.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #43,282
  • Feb 18, 2014 3:25am Feb 18, 2014 3:25am
This has potential to move U/J in 5 mins
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  • #43,283
  • Feb 18, 2014 3:51am Feb 18, 2014 3:51am
Quoting Exodus
I agree with everything you wrote there except you put 'savers' when you should have put 'debtors'. The hike in sales tax is meant to impress the world that Japan is trying to keep its government debt under control. IMHO it is lip-service, the debt is so huge that it will take decades to erode and that is assuming that the Japanese can actually get to a point where the debt starts to decrease. The sales tax has another important aspect, it directly contributes to consumer price inflation. Expect to see this creeping up some more, definitely next...
He was saver, discouraged from borrowing from banks who have small excess in liquidity, unless, ofcourse, central banks are there to support them, which is the case here. From this point, saver becomes debtor indeed.

After consumption tax takes place, consumption of durable goods are expected to contract significantly. Inflation will increase, as producers will have to cover production cost + tax leading to consumers demanding less, but growing wages shall offset that. Nevertheless, neither producer nor consumer should get benefits from that.

On the government side, its spending can be somewhat justified as Japan's population of those over 65yr+ is around 25%, more than doubled since 1990.
  • #43,284
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:17am Feb 18, 2014 4:17am
So far so good...there is a high chance to finish the ABCD pattern. Last move's target (fibo 161,8%) is nearly at the target of the pattern.
Pictures:
2014.02.13. H4
2014.02.14. H4
2014.02.18. H4
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.02.14. UsdJpy H4 ABCD.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.02.18. UsdJpy H4.png Size: 30 KB
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,285
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:21am Feb 18, 2014 4:21am
..
After Highest Top is start Downward, and Vice Versa
  • #43,286
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:32am Feb 18, 2014 4:32am
Hourly close below 102.310 opens 102.12 - 1hr 200sma
above 102.660 to 102.90 and perhaps 103.13 - 4hr 200sma
  • #43,287
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:48am Feb 18, 2014 4:48am
I like 102.90 for a long term short back to parity at least
  • #43,288
  • Feb 18, 2014 4:56am Feb 18, 2014 4:56am
Quoting Paulenok
Hourly close below 102.310 opens 102.12 - 1hr 200sma above 102.660 to 102.90 and perhaps 103.13 - 4hr 200sma
Turning from 102.050-102.250 would be ideal in my opinion.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,289
  • Edited 5:36am Feb 18, 2014 5:25am | Edited 5:36am
Won't be easy for U/J to hit 102.90/103 while E/U is at this rate

E/U 1.3750
U/J 103

E/J 141.62
  • #43,290
  • Feb 18, 2014 8:57am Feb 18, 2014 8:57am
102.310 is giving a good fight
  • #43,291
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:06am Feb 18, 2014 9:06am
Quoting Paulenok
102.310 is giving a good fight
It will give due to bad US data spoiled the game

May short XXX/JPY but no XXX/USD
  • #43,292
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:07am Feb 18, 2014 9:07am
Quoting Paulenok
102.310 is giving a good fight
5th hourly candle going with momentum down after BoJ statement was able to convince bulls this will be it for their attempts to hold
  • #43,293
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:07am Feb 18, 2014 9:07am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} It will give due to bad US data spoiled the game
It did indeed
  • #43,294
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:18am Feb 18, 2014 9:18am
See if 102.00 will hold
  • #43,295
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:22am Feb 18, 2014 9:22am
Quoting Ken A
See if 102.00 will hold
101,50 might become a reasonable target.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #43,296
  • Edited 9:43am Feb 18, 2014 9:26am | Edited 9:43am
It will be hard to kill the H4 which closed at 102.665 (~ 100pip candle)...that candle also predict 103 for me.
One of these should turn the pair imo:
102.248
102.131
102.064
101.903
f(z)=z2+c
  • #43,297
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:29am Feb 18, 2014 9:29am
Either that or forming bull flag probably until Tokyo session
  • #43,298
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:33am Feb 18, 2014 9:33am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} 101,50 might become a reasonable target.
Too far
  • #43,299
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:42am Feb 18, 2014 9:42am
Monday and Tuesday is good opportunity to long. Some missed some made it
  • #43,300
  • Feb 18, 2014 9:54am Feb 18, 2014 9:54am
Long
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