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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Quoting drzakir123
{quote}hi PT is it possible for u to explain what it mean when bank of England says 'spare capacity'in its inflation report of February 2014 "The timing and pace of any increase in Bank Rate will reflect the degree of spare capacity and the pace with which it is being absorbed"
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/...izing-the-boe/


Seems to me like they are trying to be intentionally vague as they know that they shot themselves in the foot with the forecasts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
Quoting drzakir123
{quote}hi PT is it possible for u to explain what it mean when bank of England says 'spare capacity'in its inflation report of February 2014 "The timing and pace of any increase in Bank Rate will reflect the degree of spare capacity and the pace with which it is being absorbed"
Hi Doc,

"Space Capacity" refers to production and services capacity in the economy. Basically it means that demand has not yet reached the levels of available supply in the goods and services sectors. Therefore inflation is not a problem.

If the "Spare Capacity" were to be absorbed by demand fairly quickly that would be a signal to the BOE that inflation may become a problem not too far down the road and in that case they may be forced to take action.

Translation: As long as there is "Spare Capacity", rates will not change.

The fact that they mentioned it the way they did means that it has become their focus for the next step and that's probably why the market speculators are buying up cable. This is because of the context in which they applied it. Specifically they said "The timing and pace of any increase in Bank Rate..." as opposed to "The timing and pace of any decrease in Bank Rate..." or "The timing and pace of any change in Bank Rate..."

You gotta read between the lines mate.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting gnomoneey
PT, what is the affect of the resolution of the debt ceiling to eu? "Senate vote on debt ceiling clears procedural hurdle, will move to final vote From forexlive.com {image} Senators found enough votes to block a filibuster after an hour and now it will move to a final vote with only a simple majority needed. Translation: it’s a done deal." thanks, G
Hey Gno. Considering how the risk of the debt ceiling not being raised had zero effect on the markets over the last few weeks, the net effect of a resolution will likewise have a zero effect. However, regardless of the debt ceiling issue, the markets seem to have kicked into risk-on mode... at least for now anyway. I still think we will see one more risk-off period before the markets make one final push into the stratosphere. As such, I believe we will see E/U testing 1.33xx area (likely 1.3395) before the rally resumes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hey Gno. Considering how the risk of the debt ceiling not being raised had zero effect on the markets over the last few weeks, the net effect of a resolution will likewise have a zero effect. However, regardless of the debt ceiling issue, the markets seem to have kicked into risk-on mode... at least for now anyway. I still think we will see one more risk-off period before the markets make one final push into the stratosphere. As such, I believe we will see E/U testing 1.33xx area (likely 1.3395) before the rally resumes.
thanks for the reply....1.3395 I can see and also ab=cd around 1.3420 target
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} thanks for the reply....1.3395 I can see and also ab=cd around 1.3420 target
I have 1.3424 with some wicks throw over on the daily.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Doc, "Space Capacity" refers to production and services capacity in the economy. Basically it means that demand has not yet reached the levels of available supply in the goods and services sectors. Therefore inflation is not a problem. If the "Spare Capacity" were to be absorbed by demand fairly quickly that would be a signal to the BOE that inflation may become a problem not too far down the road and in that case they may be forced to take action. Translation: As long as there is "Spare Capacity", rates will not change. The fact that...
thank u PT for the great explanation.much appreciated.the other thing they said is economy is gaining momentum but growth side is subdued with inflation dropped to 2% and uneployement dropped to 7.1 %. one of the reason they give for inflation dropping 2% is appreciation sterling since march and its continued impact in coming months.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} thanks for the reply....1.3395 I can see and also ab=cd around 1.3420 target
Yes 1.3420/30 area is the AB=CD target for the second downward corrective cycle, but the entire double corrective downward cycle target is 1.3395. So either one of them or somewhere in between.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting drzakir123
{quote}thank u PT for the great explanation.much appreciated.the other thing they said is economy is gaining momentum but growth side is subdued with inflation dropped to 2% and uneployement dropped to 7.1 %. one of the reason they give for inflation dropping 2% is appreciation sterling since march and its continued impact in coming months.
Yes of course inflation will be capped by an appreciating Pound since due to a rather flat (but still good) GDP growth curve, the lion's share of the inflation rate will be based on energy and other import prices... and not domestic wages.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Hi PT, may i ask you about your intraday expectation on EU?
I am holding short from 1.3676 and locked some of it in profit. is the yesterday's bear party finished or it's logical correction to yesterday's down move?
how you see this market?

Best Regards
Quoting HCGroup
Hi PT, may i ask you about your intraday expectation on EU? I am holding short from 1.3676 and locked some of it in profit. is the yesterday's bear party finished or it's logical correction to yesterday's down move? how you see this market? Best Regards
Intraday it's very hard to call because the upside is showing both RSI and MacD bearish divergence, but as we all know, divergence can easily be erased with a strong push upward.

This is why I prefer to take the longer term view in the H4 charts and higher. As such, I still see a very strong probability of another push down before the rally continues on to 1.4x and the downside target I have on my radar is around 1.3395 (and possibly 1.3420/30 as previously mentioned)

If you've already taken partial profits from your short, I would not let the remainder go negative. I would set SL at BE and if you get taken out, then just look for re-entry around 1.3685/3733 again.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
thanks a lot PT for sharing your view with me.
today, just few minutes after i asked you this question, EU moved higher and hitted my sl in profit.
Regarding your advice, yes you're right, it's so difficult for intraday trading especially in these days.
went short again at 1.3690 (today's R2), at first it was perfect and went into profits in less than seconds.
I am still in profit with that short, but price is so quite now. I expected more downside move after that nice H1 shooting star, but it's stands below today's high yet.
PA is crazy in EU.
However moved sl to BE, cause i am not sure about down move continuation.

Regards
D.. chart
seems to me ..that EUR want to continue the main trend !
3560 may be the start of the 3 wave ?
3740.. may have the last word ...
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Quoting chess king
D.. chart seems to me ..that EUR want to continue the main trend ! 3560 may be the start of the 3 wave ? 3740.. may have the last word ...{image}
One more push down is coming.
Will it make a new low? Chances are it will to around 1.3395, but it could fail and continue higher after only a 50% retrace of the last move up from the low.
Regardless, one move wave down is in the cards and I'll be looking to buy into it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} One more push down is coming. Will it make a new low? Chances are it will to around 1.3395, but it could fail and continue higher after only a 50% retrace of the last move up from the low. Regardless, one move wave down is in the cards and I'll be looking to buy into it.
the big picture.... for me has not altered...we have this wedge to resolve..
I have 336x as a target ... invalidates with a close above 3843..




let's see what happens
WEEKLY CHART...
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Hi Piptrapper,
Any forecast regarding the gbp/usd pair ? Thanks
Quoting 6killer2000
Hi Piptrapper, Any forecast regarding the gbp/usd pair ? Thanks
In all likelihood cable is heading for 1.7x
However nothing is in a straight line.
We could see another pullback to around 1.65 before we start moving up again

I am already long in several positions ranging from 1.62xx to 1.64xx

The key for this pair is to buy the dips.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Thanks Bro for your answer.
Hope everyone is doing well. Just popped in to say Hi as I've been very busy with a big project I am doing.

Looks to me like the Euro is being a bit stubborn. It should have already been on its way down to at least 1.34xx by now. However, seeing as how the sellers are not quite interested, it gives me the feeling that the next move down may not be as deep as I had anticipated.

Regardless, I'm only interested in buying dips anyway.

My first point of entry to place an additional long position will be at the 50% retrace of the move up from 3477 which comes in around 1.3620 area

Best of luck to all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
Hope everyone is doing well. Just popped in to say Hi as I've been very busy with a big project I am doing. Looks to me like the Euro is being a bit stubborn. It should have already been on its way down to at least 1.34xx by now. However, seeing as how the sellers are not quite interested, it gives me the feeling that the next move down may not be as deep as I had anticipated. Regardless, I'm only interested in buying dips anyway. My first point of entry to place an additional long position will be at the 50% retrace of the move up from 3477 which...
I thought you disappeared from this site. glad to see you back. why are you not on your beloved gbp/usd thread. euro is making me uncomfortable since past 6 months. was always successful when trading euro. recently lost touch in winning trades on the euro
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I thought you disappeared from this site. glad to see you back. why are you not on your beloved gbp/usd thread. euro is making me uncomfortable since past 6 months. was always successful when trading euro. recently lost touch in winning trades on the euro
There is nothing to figure out on Cable any more. It's simply heading to 1.7x so there is no need for me to keep re-analyzing it in the Cable thread.

This Euro thread is mine. I started it in 2011, so it's my home. If you cannot find me anywhere else, you'll certainly find me here

As for the direction of the Euro, it's a bit of a puzzler for the short term, but I strongly believe we will see 1.4x in the mid term.
Long term I'm still looking for new lows below 1.2040
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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