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  • #877,161
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:13am Feb 16, 2014 9:13am
Quoting JCL's-Forex
{quote} I actually agree with a lot of what you are saying. It appears I am more focused on a near term analysis and you a bit further out. I like to be aware of the longer term trend so your post is helpful. When does the change of trend (box color) actually appear on your chart? Is it when a new monthly high or low is made?
The colour of the box is the same logic of any standard candle.

If current is above open, candle is blue.
If current is below open, candle is red.

It's just a away to try and spot support and resistance ranges based on candle opens and closes of the larger time frames as applied to the faster.

Typically, I use the H1 candle to trip the M1 and M5 charts, but as the market will play fractally as applied to all TFs, the view can be extended to include H4, Daily, Weekly and Monthly superimposed over the shorter time frames.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #877,162
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:13am Feb 16, 2014 9:13am
Hello,

an update on the simple view of the weekly eurusd with a 21-periods Donchian Channel.

That downwards TL already has 3 point structures.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #877,163
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:26am Feb 16, 2014 9:26am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I am not angry at all, but if you limit yourself to H4 you will always see low risk swing trades as a miracle, that's it. If you want trade weekly you start on monday and watch daily, if there was a huge move on friday you wait till you see pullback on H1 (example) then if you are right drop to M5/M1 and place your trade if you see PA in favour of your thinking, Easy to explain, much harder to master GL.
Thank's for advise but I just don't like 1M, 5M charts. Maybe I can't get use myself on such smaller time frame. I have tried before, but it always gave me a lot of wrong signals and momentum. So to me, I rather to prefer patience to wait on 1H and 4H for entry if I am trading on LONG TERM. Probably you can describe me as lazy, but for me risk at 100 pips for 200 or even more in long term are acceptable. So I don't waste my time for a perfect entry in smaller TF.

Regards.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #877,164
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:28am Feb 16, 2014 9:28am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} FX requires two sides of trade, buyers and sellers which creates supply and demand, which has impact on price value - how do you see this similair to poker or black jack?
I don't want to create a discussion around this concept, you are right, supply and demand but you never really know the size of the orders respectively, its still a game of probability where you play your edge (in this case analyzing support and demand levels) and you expect a favorable outcome. This is my view and I don't expect you to understand it or adopt it.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #877,165
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:30am Feb 16, 2014 9:30am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I do think Fx (trading in general) has great similarities with gambling, the only thing here is that you are trying to be the casino and play a sample on whatever edge you have got. Any trade doesn't matter what kind of setup, is based merely on probability.... cause you never know who is on the other side of your trade, these are not my words but it is something I have been able to experience and if you think about it, it makes perfect sense.
I am 100% agree not only in Fx, but everything in our life. Can you say we are not gambling even though we are doing some kind of traditional business? It is just 1 reason, nobody will know the future and we do business on high probability.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #877,166
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:36am Feb 16, 2014 9:36am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} FX requires two sides of trade, buyers and sellers which creates supply and demand, which has impact on price value - how do you see this similair to poker or black jack?
Poker do need two sides of trades, when you raise, you need somebody to call to win the pot. I am wondering have you heard someone being named as "Robin Hood". He gamble from his chosen person who need help in BlackJack for charities all using his own money. Everything that related in figures and percentage can be described as gambling, we only can calculate probabilities, because we don't know what will happen in future.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #877,167
  • Feb 16, 2014 9:46am Feb 16, 2014 9:46am
Poker is a 100% psychological game based on your stack and position at the table, good poker player wins because he is analysing behaviour of other players at the table this is the only common thing. FX market belong to hedgers and speculators were one protect themself from price fluctuations and others gain profit from that move. Hedgers absorb contracts from speculators and this is how swing move looks like. This is how you use COT to trade and this is how rarely anybody in retail market will trade because sometimes it's just one good trade per year. I see your point of view. Most important find your way and be consistent, nobody will care more about your acc than you.
GL.
swing it!
  • #877,168
  • Feb 16, 2014 10:17am Feb 16, 2014 10:17am
The edge in trading is always very
small, but if it has a high mathematical certainty and you use it thousands of times
a day, it theoretically will produce consistent profits. This is the same principle on
which casinos make their money. On most games, their edge is only 3 percent or
less, but they are more than 99 percent certain that the edge is real and not just
a coincidence. If a casino only has one customer, and he bets a billion dollars on
a single bet, the casino has a 47 percent chance of going out of business on that
bet. However, when thousands of gamblers place small bets every day, the odds
are overwhelming that the casinos will consistently make money.
  • #877,169
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:05am Feb 16, 2014 11:05am
Fantastic reading all of your thoughts ladies and gentleman. JCL! shout out to you for your youtube videos! They inevitably have brought me here. Thank you.

And this is my first post!

I Love all this unbiased information on the forum (Via contrary beliefs and explanations.)

I hope my first chart post is not the size of the moon! lol (I have no idea what dimensions to input on the file.)

My thoughts: EUR, GBP and AUD are all soon going to experience some weakness. But EUR/USD is going to open with a gap down, and from there it will be freefall and covering to.1.3500 and later 1.3300. There we may consolidate or continue down.

Enter: 1:3740 or after 1.3450 ...SL:1.3800 ..TP at 1.3315. (but I would trim positions around 1.3550.)

Reasons:
1)We consoilidate in this channel and make a sharp trip downward usually (Yellow).
2)Based on downward TL on the weekly (Blue).
3)1.30-1.40 are the Pre-recession, AND per BUBBLE levels ...this is sudo-equilibrium for just coming out of all this and getting stable. (RED) <mean revision>

I don't wanna chart everyone to death because its my first post but my daily gives me reason to believe a SPIKE in price action will happen around 11pmCST 2/16/2014 (Or 10pm EST.) Based on ...um idk if it has a term (Volitility rhythm???)...everything I know I discover on my own then see there is a whole system around it later with a guys name attached to it. LOL

I could be wrong though. Not trying to sound like I have all the answers. But that is my best approximation of what happens this week and why. Happy trading.
Attached Image
  • #877,170
  • Feb 16, 2014 11:47am Feb 16, 2014 11:47am
oh 3914 what is this? double triple 3
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #877,171
  • Edited 12:15pm Feb 16, 2014 11:51am | Edited 12:15pm
Good Evening, Something i was reading :

The European Commission president says member states are unlikely to agree to a newly independent Scotland joining the EU. The Scottish government says his comments are "preposterous".
Full story here : http://www.channel4.com/news/difficu...to-join-the-eu
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #877,172
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:03pm Feb 16, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Near and Here are 2 very different words. Ever feel safe in your world, until somebody comes along and slaps you in the nuts from behind? This is the market feel.... When ever you feel the most safe and comfortable, you have to know that shit is about to get real. FAST. So, we see a little Draw...and folk start to buy back looking for the higher highs...there is a little profit to be made.. And we go on, buying the little dips and each don't look to bad...and we see a little gain to set us back into profit and comfort... You know what comes...
I like your word... SHAZAM!!!!!
  • #877,173
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:26pm Feb 16, 2014 12:26pm
I'm short 5 separate trades based on three very common failures (shown inside the white circles) My 5 targets are marked 3 to 5 pips above the white dashed lines and of course my entries are marked in green.

1,2,& 3 targets are based on common intra-bar short divergence failures and the 4th and 5th targets are based on the open of two impulse candles. The chart is a 1h and my stops are set equal-distance apart.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Zane
  • #877,174
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:32pm Feb 16, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting BDardenTrade
Fantastic reading all of your thoughts ladies and gentleman. JCL! shout out to you for your youtube videos! They inevitably have brought me here. Thank you. And this is my first post! I Love all this unbiased information on the forum (Via contrary beliefs and explanations.) I hope my first chart post is not the size of the moon! lol (I have no idea what dimensions to input on the file.) My thoughts: EUR, GBP and AUD are all soon going to experience some weakness. But EUR/USD is going to open with a gap down, and from there it will be freefall...
Welcome and Nice Chart. Unfortunately 3 of them are still showing very strong at the moment. The triplet has already gap up for 20 pips on current price. Will it be 9 days consecutive rallied on the cable? It is still a myth.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #877,175
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:48pm Feb 16, 2014 12:48pm
139 then 1.4185
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #877,176
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:52pm Feb 16, 2014 12:52pm
Quoting ud1nh0
139 then 1.4185
4170.5
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #877,177
  • Feb 16, 2014 12:58pm Feb 16, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting ud1nh0
139 then 1.4185
DAILY closed above 1.373x might lead the whole pair to 1.381x and 1.417x probably. This will be crazy, mate.

Regards
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #877,178
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:15pm Feb 16, 2014 1:15pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} 4170.5
wrong projection, suld be using 3810
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #877,179
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:19pm Feb 16, 2014 1:19pm
Sorry for the double chart picture...I'll get the hang of it for sure.
Zane
  • #877,180
  • Feb 16, 2014 1:47pm Feb 16, 2014 1:47pm
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