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  • #876,961
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:47am Feb 14, 2014 3:47am
Quoting Paulenok
For 1.37380, we have to close above 1.3704 at 9am GMT
Top of the day still on the cards, 1pm GMT
For downside, below 1.3683 for 1.3661 first
  • #876,962
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:52am Feb 14, 2014 3:52am
Quoting eurusd_trade
stalling, so for now i am neutral here but i'm still only looking for longs. if 7x cracks will have to see how it plays out. may be a lifeline for shorts but could also be an opportunity to reload new longs. there's been some potentially bad accumulation on this most recent grind to just before 1.37xx let's see what happens same what z3iz3i said should still continue to attemp long scalps off the hourly pivot unless it breaks then stop for small loss.
Yep.

And simple logic behind how movers and makers think.

They are quite often happy to see small whipsawing "consolidation" to drive traders nuts and lose money.

And then when price moves are really small, they plan to move it.

If markets are liquid and not moving much, there are strong players against.

Todays market waits move and it should come later. Upside first.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #876,963
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:55am Feb 14, 2014 3:55am
Quoting ud1nh0
1.6824 seems proper short place for EU
Are you serious.I hope not that euro will climb to 1.49.

  • #876,964
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:58am Feb 14, 2014 3:58am
Gold is driving euro. Its all gold now
  • #876,965
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:00am Feb 14, 2014 4:00am
perhaps some good resistance at 3752/58...

might look for shorts here for a chance at 3616/25
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #876,966
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:06am Feb 14, 2014 4:06am
Quoting BlueGas
{quote} Man, its nice ress at your stop, give it 5 more pips, imho
eh,,,,bad luck.
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #876,967
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:07am Feb 14, 2014 4:07am
Quoting PayTheLimit
perhaps some good resistance at 3752/58... might look for shorts here for a chance at 3616/25
Very low vol day, rising without vol

So i'll give a try with some short on the way up3....thing is 1.372x/3x is so close
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,968
  • Edited 4:27am Feb 14, 2014 4:10am | Edited 4:27am
here's another observation:
just as GBP is strenghtening, so is CAD
all of this reflects a rebalancing more against the USD than anything else.
that's why we've also seen AUD, JPY, EUR all strengthen simultaneously without GBP crosses getting affected too much.
just something to take into account when looking at other currencies. they are more likely to follow the GBP move in the USD direction than typically might be opposite directions if people are adding GBP against the other currency.
another unusual property of this move considering the past year's activity but it suggests that people are finally betting on USD weakness and EU may finally get to 1.40, etc. although still obviously premature to say that before data.
notice also EM currencies such as MXN after blowing out 13.50 are also strengthening. it's all about USD weakness back into higher-yielding stuff.
if the macro guys are serious about this theme, buying USD will likely be disastrous no matter what currency you do it against and it's better to trade trend/momentum/longer-term etc.
  • #876,969
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:24am Feb 14, 2014 4:24am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Very low vol day, rising without vol So i'll give a try with some short on the way up3....thing is 1.372x/3x is so close
we will see mate, only thing is thats its friday, dont want to take a full boat home over the weekend... so kind of hope we dont get up there today...gl mate
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #876,970
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:29am Feb 14, 2014 4:29am
Quoting eurusd_trade
here's another observation: just as GBP is strenghtening, so is CAD all of this reflects a rebalancing more against the USD than anything else. that's why we've also seen AUD, JPY, EUR all strengthen simultaneously without GBP crosses getting affected too much. just something to take into account when looking at other currencies. they are more likely to follow the GBP move in the USD direction than typically might be opposite directions if people are adding GBP against the other currency. another unusual property of this move considering the past...
We are not ready to rally to 1.40 yet.
  • #876,971
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:29am Feb 14, 2014 4:29am
Quoting Kelllcie
{quote} We are not ready to rally to 1.40 yet.
we shall see in due time the macro guys take their jobs seriously. think about how long the long EUR cross long GBP cross trade lasted. If now people are serious about outright USD selling, they're not just going to change their minds in a week. the AQR types of funds will go on and on and on...
people ask why does this market feel so different, well because this type of paradigm shift is disorienting.
just like when they inverted the USD correlation to Risk correlation ahead of Fed tapering speculation mid 2013. people got disoriented.
and people are getting disoriented now. i'm telling you this so you don't get confused.
  • #876,972
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:30am Feb 14, 2014 4:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not to say in the st i see any bearish signs.. the bulls for 4146 have never made it to AB.. that's at 31xx . we also have a valid bear signal to it 31xx (X). this is why i was not shorting until gu 6688 or eu 3698. in between was the noise.. a is the 389x high. at 3700 it was far away, so if u use it for a s/l make sure you have a small position where its just a small % of the account. near 389x is always the best r/r
Hmmmm... I remember that small moves build large moves.. this looks like a ginormous move encompassing all the st and mt moves... so if I'm guessing correctly.. the right place is wait for the M closer to A and lay the battle lines there... exiting some at B and some at C... if the wind changes there's already some in your pocket...Thanks again for your willingness to always help answer noob queries...
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #876,973
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:31am Feb 14, 2014 4:31am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} we will see mate, only thing is thats its friday, dont want to take a full boat home over the weekend... so kind of hope we dont get up there today...gl mate
Time will tell

But i'd like to see 1.362x/3x before another attempt to go higher.

GL to you as well
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,974
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:38am Feb 14, 2014 4:38am
Is anyone going to trade eurcad before/during the news in less than 1 hr?
Good opportunity to buy now as the price is at the PP, in my opinion, anyone has anything in this subject?
  • #876,975
  • Edited 5:21am Feb 14, 2014 4:41am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting Profiterfx
Is anyone going to trade eurcad before/during the news in less than 1 hr? Good opportunity to buy now as the price is at the PP, in my opinion, anyone has anything in this subject?
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  • #876,976
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:41am Feb 14, 2014 4:41am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} we shall see in due time the macro guys take their jobs seriously. think about how long the long EUR cross long GBP cross trade lasted. If now people are serious about outright USD selling, they're not just going to change their minds in a week. the AQR types of funds will go on and on and on...
In due time yes, you think people are long euro and they aren't. No one did 'usd selling' on some huge macro bet.. we aren't even on good prices to do that.

As a matter of fact we are more likely to go lower now, and I am bullish on euro currency, I also think it will hit 1.40. But even I can admit we are not ready for a major shift like that just yet.
  • #876,977
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:43am Feb 14, 2014 4:43am
Quoting Kelllcie
{quote} In due time yes, you think people are long euro and they aren't. No one did 'usd selling' on some huge macro bet.. we aren't even on good prices to do that. As a matter of fact we are more likely to go lower now, and I am bullish on euro currency, I also think it will hit 1.40. But even I can admit we are not ready for a major shift like that just yet.
you're not listening to the market then. re-read what i wrote and look at how every currency is trading against the USD both G10 and EM and look at how the crosses are not moving.
we've had many paradigm shifts the past few years:
went from -E/XXX -G/XXX to +E/XXX +G/XXX, went from -XXX/JPY to +XXX/JPY (all of these trades are under profit-taking currently)
went from risk higher USD lower to risk higher USD higher
now it's back to risk higher USD lower
yes, it's confusing, and yes the major shift is apparently happening as we speak as GBP/USD breaches multi-year ranges.
billion dollar hedgies like bridgewater and AQR are known to be responsible for this kind of stuff.
  • #876,978
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:50am Feb 14, 2014 4:50am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} you're not listening to the market then. re-read what i wrote and look at how every currency is trading against the USD both G10 and EM and look at how the crosses are not moving.
No. No one is making 'usd selling' , everything is like it was one week ago.
  • #876,979
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:50am Feb 14, 2014 4:50am
Quoting Kelllcie
{quote} No. No one is making 'usd selling' , everything is like it was one week ago.
all right mate, well you believe what you want to believe i tried my best to explain. good luck to you.
  • #876,980
  • Feb 14, 2014 4:55am Feb 14, 2014 4:55am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} all right mate, well you believe what you want to believe i tried my best to explain. good luck to you.
I'm glad you are excited about changes in fx that you discoverd some 1 or 2 hours ago, but just because you are now aware of it doesnt mean it will all change right now in the next hour, (because yes it was all this time waiting for you to realize that). You know what I mean?
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