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  • #876,881
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:20am Feb 14, 2014 3:20am
GU looks topish, sellers up there, chancing a short...enough with the rise
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,882
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:28am Feb 14, 2014 3:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i need a target to figure out my r/r before entering. atm we are with a new high of 3714.. if this remains the same.. i see a 300 pip retrace as normal, even if its eventually going higher. i am more weghted on the eu drop then the gu because the eg indicates further to fall.. so if i wanted to buy the gbp. it would be at least 300 pips lower
hi gator,

i'm just returning to this after 5 month hiatus. made a n00b mistake and traded without SL. it was a typical gambler's mistake... suffered from typical confirmation bias by reading here too much..

1 question... what tools do you use to determine your r/r levels?
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #876,883
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:29am Feb 14, 2014 3:29am
Could this be a PUMP AND DUMP before GDP data later on?
  • #876,884
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:29am Feb 14, 2014 3:29am
Quoting kuroro001
GU looks topish, sellers up there, chancing a short...enough with the rise
lol, the thing is, there is just no way to know, i agonized about taking profit here too on longs at the end got 1.6700 avg which now isn't trapped anymore, i still think EG lower, you better off chancing EUR short but neither looks appetizing. 3 GBP data points next week, it's probably OK to hold -EG. pretty sure this is still all just EG selling.
  • #876,885
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:31am Feb 14, 2014 3:31am
EU could fall to 1.362x minimum.

Forgot about the 1.3701/03, we are below it, not good
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,886
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:32am Feb 14, 2014 3:32am
Quoting flam
{quote} hi gator, i'm just returning to this after 5 month hiatus. made a n00b mistake and traded without SL. it was a typical gambler's mistake... suffered from typical confirmation bias by reading here too much.. 1 question... what tools do you use to determine your r/r levels?
price and photoshop
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #876,887
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:32am Feb 14, 2014 3:32am
Quoting kuroro001
EU could fall to 1.362x minimum. Forgot about the 1.3701/03, we are below it, not good
I don't know man, retailers trapped below 1.3675, let's see if it breaks, i have no longs anymore so i don't really care if it does but but i think it will be defended
  • #876,888
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:34am Feb 14, 2014 3:34am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} lol, the thing is, there is just no way to know, i agonized about taking profit here too on longs at the end got 1.6700 avg which now isn't trapped anymore, i still think EG lower, you better off chancing EUR short but neither looks appetizing. 3 GBP data points next week, it's probably OK to hold -EG. pretty sure this is still all just EG selling.
I spotted sellers hence the short...now time will tell if i was right or now

TP is near 1.6664/68
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,889
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:36am Feb 14, 2014 3:36am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} I don't know man, retailers trapped below 1.3675, let's see if it breaks, i have no longs anymore so i don't really care if it does but but i think it will be defended
No longs neither, it can do whatever it wants

But interest in the 1.367x area. Someone trying to stop the move down, good vol there
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,890
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:37am Feb 14, 2014 3:37am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I spotted sellers hence the short...now time will tell if i was right or now TP is near 1.6664/68
no view, but i wouldn't do it myself, only looking for longs but currnetly have none. same EUR
if view is EG lower and EU defended at 1.3675 GU can't go down
these are truly some exceptional market conditions we're witnessing for a while now
let's see if it is defended, for me likely hangman due to trapped shorts but a break is posisble too although i would be surprised because the trapped shorts haven't covered (maybe a little bit)
so do we go long low 8x high 7x (the closer to 75 the better as it improves RR) in the EUR and risk a break? probably high RR
  • #876,891
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:39am Feb 14, 2014 3:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} price and photoshop
thanks..

i understand you have a lot more factors to consider when looking at price. the direction and the ratio of movement.

I find it hard to understand the direction. Like when you ask where will it go if it wants to go to XXX.. i try to answer but i cant really feel what is the right question to ask. why are levels bear and why are some levels bull. i know bears and bulls take a different path. to put structure into something linear wrecks my brain sometimes. i look to the left... but some levels are not on the left... at least not in the recent path... the market never forgets but wont that make it such that there are way too many data points to consider?
it is highly likely that i'm wrong... so dont follow me!
  • #876,892
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:39am Feb 14, 2014 3:39am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} no view, but i wouldn't do it myself, only looking for longs but currnetly have none. same EUR if view is EG lower and EU defended at 1.3675 GU can't go down let's see if it is defended, for me likely hangman but a break is posisble too
Longs that high ? Too expansive to me

And Dollar will take care of EU and EU
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,893
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:42am Feb 14, 2014 3:42am
Nice field to trade for big players, doing December 3rd 2013 week open-close range on usdchf.....unless 52/64 on eurusd gives in, looks a dip for buyers.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #876,894
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:43am Feb 14, 2014 3:43am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I spotted sellers hence the short...now time will tell if i was right or now TP is near 1.6664/68
could be a nice trade building on her, time will always tell, eu right now at pretty important support, if bulls don't step up, she should be toast :-) watching 4hr chart nice flag in play, waiting to see if bears can breach it
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #876,895
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:45am Feb 14, 2014 3:45am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} my map is 1.19 then 3460 then 1.09 then 1.44. it's down to 1.19 then up to 3460 then down 1.09 then up to 1.44
my map has changed. maybe 3125 for 4244 for 3.3.5 then i dont know.
u know. its a crystal ball
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #876,896
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:45am Feb 14, 2014 3:45am
Will short E/U here. Risk: reward is ok.
Any way If you need any indicator or EA let me know.
  • #876,897
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:46am Feb 14, 2014 3:46am
H4 very bearish candle on the making
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #876,898
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:48am Feb 14, 2014 3:48am
"North, Miss Tessmacher! Due north."
  • #876,899
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:48am Feb 14, 2014 3:48am
Quoting moneymove
H4 very bearish candle on the making
Red close would be very good for shorts
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #876,900
  • Feb 14, 2014 3:48am Feb 14, 2014 3:48am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} but also a resistance point, I am short from 3709 tight stop, price needs to clear below 3690 for some comfort {image}
now looking to see if 3690/5 will keep a lid on it...
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