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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #43,121
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:23pm Feb 13, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Nice Kenjlau! I think it would be hard not too.. For now I myself am holding my cards close to my chest though because ideally I'd like to be able to put on a decent size trade at an optimal entry point and be able to have it run down with these news events so I can place SL at BE for as long as it takes for the long awaited correction to take place..who knows, 2014 global financial crisis anybody? It sorta has a ring to it.. Also this chart of the DOW of the time of the great depression and now is so freaky..looks like we're on...
Means absolutely nothing. There are plenty of "parallels" in history which didn't complete. If it does, it's merely coincidence.
  • #43,122
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:33pm Feb 13, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hello US/JPY Man just about ready to throw the laptop out the window Needed a burst up Had to go out an things turn to custard EUR/YEN longs taking diving lessons

You seem to be taking diving lessons alot!! Better risk management..maybe tighter SL's.


PS There are no emotions in trading!!!! They will get the best of you and always win.
  • #43,123
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:33pm Feb 13, 2014 10:33pm
So possibility sell UJ 78 stop loss 83? Looks like offers at 80
Could be worth a shot, but obviously late to the party? All right I took tiny here
from reading this forum, a bunch of people are trapped, i can risk 5 pips for this
  • #43,124
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:36pm Feb 13, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Means absolutely nothing. There are plenty of "parallels" in history which didn't complete. If it does, it's merely coincidence.
Ok fair enough, however to me it is at least a sign of things worsening in the US, and a worsening of things at a historical level at that.
I'm not aiming to pick the exact moment the market crashes from the parallel DOW chart before the depression. Although I see the markets as cyclical as human nature is cyclical to a degree due to fear and greed always kicking in at specific points in time. I personally see this time as high time.
If you really want to get down to business how do you explain these massive pumps in the markets on bad data continually coming out in the US.
I've got my views on this and I see a storm brewing..
  • #43,125
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:36pm Feb 13, 2014 10:36pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Means absolutely nothing. .
Hey Kanzler...... wuz, up
Haven't noticed you around in awhile.

Ya' doing OK, I suppose ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #43,126
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:38pm Feb 13, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
So possibility sell UJ 78 stop loss 83? Looks like offers at 80 Could be worth a shot, but obviously late to the party? All right I took tiny here from reading this forum, a bunch of people are trapped, i can risk 5 pips for this
Bailed lol, as soon sa I wrote this a bid came in (-2)
  • #43,127
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:39pm Feb 13, 2014 10:39pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
So possibility sell UJ 78 stop loss 83? Looks like offers at 80 Could be worth a shot, but obviously late to the party? All right I took tiny here from reading this forum, a bunch of people are trapped, i can risk 5 pips for this
Why risk short. Next week It looks to be setting up long. Of course no one can see the future. But I would not short after such a strong move already. Price is near weekly support. I have had an eye on 101.45 snd its close enough but I will wait to long once things shake out. Don't like to trade a Friday anyways.
  • #43,128
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:40pm Feb 13, 2014 10:40pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Why risk short. Next week It looks to be setting up long. Of course no one can see the future. But I would not short after such a strong move already. Price is near weekly support. I have had an eye on 101.45 snd its close enough but I will wait to long once things shake out. Don't like to trade a Friday anyways.
It was just a scalp it looked like there was defense at 80 on fast TF, there was not. I lost 2 pips, just case some other guy came to smash test the lows again for 10150
10150 at some pretty serious risk certainly a lot more than 10200
i just don't have much tolerance on SL, if it 's not going my way immediately i bail
  • #43,129
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:41pm Feb 13, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Hey Kanzler...... wuz, up Haven't noticed you around in awhile. Ya' doing OK, I suppose ?
Hey Slim, been busy with work but in terms of trading the honest truth is I've simply been spinning my wheels the last few months. String of losers followed by a good win to replace them and then it starts all over. Not much to brag about. Yourself?
  • #43,130
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:49pm Feb 13, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} It was just a scalp it looked like there was defense at 80 on fast TF, there was not. I lost 2 pips, just case some other guy came to smash test the lows again for 10150 10150 at some pretty serious risk certainly a lot more than 10200 i just don't have much tolerance on SL, if it 's not going my way immediately i bail
Understood. Kinda has the feel like it wants lower. I think its in limbo. I used to get burned bad by these type of plays at the end of a move.
  • #43,131
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:49pm Feb 13, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} It was just a scalp it looked like there was defense at 80 on fast TF, there was not. I lost 2 pips, just case some other guy came to smash test the lows again for 10150 10150 at some pretty serious risk certainly a lot more than 10200 i just don't have much tolerance on SL, if it 's not going my way immediately i bail
trying another short at 88.5
  • #43,132
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:50pm Feb 13, 2014 10:50pm
All XXX/JPY found buyers again
  • #43,133
  • Feb 13, 2014 10:51pm Feb 13, 2014 10:51pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Understood. Kinda has the feel like it wants lower. I think its in limbo. I used to get burned bad by these type of plays at the end of a move.
i know what you mean, the JPY is usually very two-way on any kind of move, especially when USDJPY sells off. when USDJPY rallies sometimes it's one way.
today it moved exceptionally fast/uni-directionally together with the nikkei on very light defense i don't know what kind of flows were behind it, it was a bit "scary" to watch
any way unless proven otherwise 10150 is at risk, 88.5 should be a decent price if this view is correct, let's see what happens
i mean, are we really coming back to 102 after such a toxic move like this? could be wrong though
  • #43,134
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:01pm Feb 13, 2014 11:01pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Hey Slim, been busy with work but in terms of trading the honest truth is I've simply been spinning my wheels the last few months. String of losers followed by a good win to replace them and then it starts all over. Not much to brag about. Yourself?
As an "active endeavor", trading is pretty much all I do these days.
Nothing to brag about here either.

I was initially just wondering if I was still your "favorite forum troll" as
your "shout" said.

But that's no longer important. And I can understand.

All the best.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #43,135
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:16pm Feb 13, 2014 11:16pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} i know what you mean, the JPY is usually very two-way on any kind of move, especially when USDJPY sells off. when USDJPY rallies sometimes it's one way. today it moved exceptionally fast/uni-directionally together with the nikkei on very light defense i don't know what kind of flows were behind it, it was a bit "scary" to watch any way unless proven otherwise 10150 is at risk, 88.5 should be a decent price if this view is correct, let's see what happens i mean, are we really coming back to 102 after such a toxic move like this? could be...
i'm took it +26 at 62. i'll leave the last 10 ticks or so to someone more tenacious than i. i hate the last 10 ticks on a level. 50% of the time it misses the first time and have to retry later while agonizing. another 25% of the time it completely misses and it ends up flipping back way more than 10 ticks. only 25% of the time does it go straight through. that's my guess. here could be a mistake but we aren't even in london, can asia really drop 101.50? i don't know. so i take 10 ticks before. it does look like it's still ticking pretty quickly so could be a mistake but i won't second guess. i had enough bad experiences with "levels" in the past so i usually do this now for exits.
  • #43,136
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:27pm Feb 13, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} You seem to be taking diving lessons alot!! Better risk management..maybe tighter SL's. PS There are no emotions in trading!!!! They will get the best of you and always win.
Hi Riz

Yeah no risk really as they are small trades

hand full of lemons trades in EUR/YEN

All makes sense when you turn the screen up side down.

That last move to 140 then bang 139 caught me out.

Just need a we burst back up again:nerd:
  • #43,137
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:27pm Feb 13, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting nobodysman
Closed half of my 104.30 shorts from 101.30. SL for the other half is 103.40. I plan to add again shorts from 103 level if it goes.
I still continue with half 104.30 shorts. Boring week.
  • #43,138
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:29pm Feb 13, 2014 11:29pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} As an "active endeavor", trading is pretty much all I do these days. Nothing to brag about here either. I was initially just wondering if I was still your "favorite forum troll" as your "shout" said. But that's no longer important. And I can understand. All the best.
I'm still young and poor. Even if I'd made 10% a month I'd still not be able to live on it, so my career has to take priority. And of course, Slim. Although I have to say, you've settled down some. All the best to you as well.
  • #43,139
  • Feb 13, 2014 11:36pm Feb 13, 2014 11:36pm
You're my favorite troll, slim

And I am young and poor too!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #43,140
  • Edited 11:50pm Feb 13, 2014 11:37pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hi Riz Yeah no risk really as they are small trades hand full of lemons trades in EUR/YEN All makes sense when you turn the screen up side down. That last move to 140 then bang 139 caught me out. Just need a we burst back up again:nerd:
ouch. that's a wide sl. EU may save you at some point though. UJ may have further downside, for now but as i said, i leave the last 10 ticks to someone more tenacious than i. actually it's more like the last 20 ticks because if you're patient enough you'll probably see at least 101.40 (alternatively, you can always stop sell at 101.50 or maybe low 101.5x but that's really nitpicky and you have to be watching it anyway) but there's also more RISK if you choose to try for it, like here we bounced to 7x off 5x, i just don't have patience for this stuff. same with that GBP level, who wants to watch it 24/7, there are easier pips out there, so take at 1666x go home.

night all.
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