USD/JPY Discussion | Page 2149 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,961
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:23pm Feb 11, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting Ken A
China trade balance is + = Risk-On = Not a shorting day But looks like 102.80 is defended {image}
There seems to be an inverse hs setup there above 102.7
  • #42,962
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:27pm Feb 11, 2014 8:27pm
I never check the calendar.

Perhaps a part of my problem
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #42,963
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:33pm Feb 11, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting smash1820
I never check the calendar. Perhaps a part of my problem
Don't worry, I'm in the same boat, I missed the importance of that number as well. I just saw AU spike higher and insta-covered -UJ. whilst UJ could still come down from here if it does it's likely to be a tortuous process and 103 is just as much at risk with 15000 in the Nikkei
  • #42,964
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:48pm Feb 11, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 3 lots buy against 3 lots sell and heavily overlaged ! If you closed the one in profits will lead to margin call. Option #1, close one lot buy against one lot sell in profits one by one - this will take time and extreme patience - easier said than done when you are in panics. Option #2, closed all in loss. Option #3, top up the equity then close the one in profit then wait for the price to your direction in profit. Do not add new positions. {image}

Not sure that would be easy for him/her to do... essentially from the trades done.. he/she is buying at the top and selling off at the bottom to hedge, and selling even more to try and go with the new direction only to be reversed against.. and the cycle repeats.. until he/she can't take it anymore and then a total hedge off is done....

on the above point, since he/she can't make a decision to cut loss, to take off the profiting position, could possibly result in the loss getting bigger because the market 'is' running in the direction of the profit..

just my 2 cents..
  • #42,965
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:51pm Feb 11, 2014 8:51pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} 3 lots buy against 3 lots sell and heavily overlaged ! If you closed the one in profits will lead to margin call. Option #1, close one lot buy against one lot sell in profits one by one - this will take time and extreme patience - easier said than done when you are in panics. Option #2, closed all in loss. Option #3, top up the equity then close the one in profit then wait for the price to your direction in profit. Do not add new positions.
Great analysis Ken and sorry I have a habit of not always reading all of the posts, though I do try my best.

I also agree very much with belgeran's post above.

With that said, I would choose Option #1 except I would modify it because you will probably have to take a loss. I think that is the best course of action -- to wipe the slate clean and start off fresh, so that you can actually make money without having to wait so long and all the frustration.

I know losses are extremely tough to endure, but like Ken said you have wayyy too much leverage and I personally would never hedge like that, or at all. If you decide to exit the trades for a loss, I think now is a good point to do so. U/J is hovering around that 102.56 area which is you average/net position for those first 6 trades, so you should be able to exit the 1.5 lots long from 102.55 and the 1.5 lots short from 102.57 with minimal damage. I would close 1 long, then 1 short, then 1 long, then 1 short, etc.

If price hits ~102.43, you can exit the 1 lot long from 102.95 and 1 lot short from 101.91 with minimal damage.

For the remaining 1.0 lot, exit when price hits 103.00.

I am just using averages to calculate the net positions but this is at least how I would do it. Like I said, you will have to take a loss, but then it would free up your margin to trade anew. And once you're all clean, I would just look to be a buyer only. Buy on the dips, and it is that easy in theory but in practice it is obviously much more difficult... because there WILL be retracements.

I'm not sure if this is the BEST advice for you but only you can make that decision depending on what type of trader you are and I've also outlined what I would do. I think this is the best way to actually start making money again. Let me know if you have any questions.

Btw: If you do trade again, DO NOT HEDGE!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #42,966
  • Feb 11, 2014 8:57pm Feb 11, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Oh boy, I just saw this post... I am sorry to hear this news. Trading is tough and I have been there before (very frequently in fact). Without a doubt, the first thing I would do -- since I assume you must be with a broker that allows hedging -- is to figure out your net (cumulative) position. Is it mostly long or short? The answer to that question will determine what to do next.
Yes, you're right. I had to hedge the buys as I hate margin calls. I prefer first downwards then upwards, if this pair go like this, whats the better choise for me?
Thank you so much!
Best regards

Lin Mou
  • #42,967
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:00pm Feb 11, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting linmou
{image} Need someone's help! Seems I am suffering a big trouble duo to my bad skill. I've locked all the trades for a couple of days, and I have no idea about how to so solve the problem. So please give me some advise, thanks! :-)
876:1 Leverage!!! Are you frigin' kidding me?!

Your fkd.
  • #42,968
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:14pm Feb 11, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting linmou
{quote} Thank you so much for your advise Ken, and I will read them carefully then try to reduce my loss. Just wait for my good the good news from me THank you again, and wish you happy everyday! Lin Mou Sydney Australia
No problem.

If you see PA, 102.80 seems to be defended so far. You can take advantage of this situation but with the risk if 102.80 is breached.
  • #42,969
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:25pm Feb 11, 2014 9:25pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No problem. If you see PA, 102.80 seems to be defended so far. You can take advantage of this situation but with the risk if 102.80 is breached.
Okay, I got it. I will close the profitable trades one by one carefully.
Good luck bro, thanks a lot!!!
  • #42,970
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:33pm Feb 11, 2014 9:33pm
seems to be a short trade over night.
use leverage with caution...
  • #42,971
  • Feb 11, 2014 9:56pm Feb 11, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting jsshuai
seems to be a short trade over night.
maybe but I just keep buying on deeps EJ and UJ.
  • #42,972
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:12pm Feb 11, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting pbylina
{quote} 876:1 Leverage!!! Are you frigin' kidding me?! Your fkd.
yes, very unsuccessful. I am trying my best to solve the problem. Thanks bro!
  • #42,973
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:17pm Feb 11, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting linmou
{quote} yes, very unsuccessful. I am trying my best to solve the problem. Thanks bro!
i respect your courage to show the trade record. i hope you solve your problem soon.
use leverage with caution...
  • #42,974
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:28pm Feb 11, 2014 10:28pm
Quoting linmou
{image} Need someone's help! Seems I am suffering a big trouble duo to my bad skill. I've locked all the trades for a couple of days, and I have no idea about how to so solve the problem. So please give me some advise, thanks! :-)
Oh man this is tough but I think you are gunna have to start unwinding the big guns here first. Will free up your margin then you can actually maybe do something? Hope it is a lesson
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #42,975
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:29pm Feb 11, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Oh man this is tough but I think you are gunna have to start unwinding the big guns here first. Will free up your margin then you can actually maybe do something? Hope it is a lesson
Have to be very careful!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #42,976
  • Feb 11, 2014 10:37pm Feb 11, 2014 10:37pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Have to be very careful!
Thanks a lot mate!
I will be very careful, and I think I will make it in the end :-)
Good luck!
  • #42,977
  • Feb 11, 2014 11:58pm Feb 11, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting linmou
{quote} Okay, I got it. I will close the profitable trades one by one carefully. Good luck bro, thanks a lot!!!
Find the attached sheet to calculate which positions to take off respective to current PA to micro manage the trades to avoid margins call

Need further help, just ask.

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Linmou.xlsx   13 KB | 359 downloads
  • #42,978
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:17am Feb 12, 2014 2:17am
Quoting belgeran
{quote} Not sure that would be easy for him/her to do... essentially from the trades done.. he/she is buying at the top and selling off at the bottom to hedge, and selling even more to try and go with the new direction only to be reversed against.. and the cycle repeats.. until he/she can't take it anymore and then a total hedge off is done.... on the above point, since he/she can't make a decision to cut loss, to take off the profiting position, could possibly result in the loss getting bigger because the market 'is' running in the direction of...
True, it was never easy in that situation really depends on all the information and how one perceives PA movement.

As said earlier, 102.80 looks like defended so the OP can close some/partial buy positions in profits and when PA move lower to open another buy to make the loss smaller and free up the free margin by adding profits to the balance.

Today is the right moment to do so because U/J has been capped in 26 pips range since NY close.
  • #42,979
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:26am Feb 12, 2014 2:26am
using 102.64/69 and 104.41/45, looking for scalps on any breach of said levels..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #42,980
  • Feb 12, 2014 2:32am Feb 12, 2014 2:32am
Quoting smash1820
Hey guys! U/J is finally moving and I'm not sure if it's because of what Yellen said or because of the fact that Tokyo's bank holiday is over and the big boys are back, but either way, I am pissed for having such a bad start to the week, and so for that, I will be RAPING the yen tonight. Starting now
Cool! ...so how much did you make in that 22-pip range..
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
57 traders viewing now