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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,841
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:23am Feb 7, 2014 8:23am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} NFP already priced in + good Unemployment Rate
Hmmm ... do not know if I will ever trade these NFPs with a lot of money. They always turn out differently for me. Ok, it is only my second LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #42,842
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:25am Feb 7, 2014 8:25am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} NFP already priced in + good Unemployment Rate

  • #42,843
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:27am Feb 7, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Ken A
Risk-On continue
This time I wanted to be smart and closed my AUD/USD longs before the NFPs. Well was it smart ... somehow not, but somehow it was
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #42,844
  • Edited 9:00am Feb 7, 2014 8:41am | Edited 9:00am
gonna start fading the UJ here again up until 103 in clips, will be happy with an avg of 102.7x 102.8x or so but it may or may not get there so going to avg in
EU needs to make up the last leg on EJ if back to 140 not UJ
can't sell AU yet, AU needs 90xx i believe but could be wrong

edit: i take back on EU, it doesn't look great there, so UJ may have more upside but i'm still happy with avg of 102.7x
  • #42,845
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:52am Feb 7, 2014 8:52am
Quoting Ken A
Risk-On continue
Watch your GU longs, here comes UK GDP estimate....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,846
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:54am Feb 7, 2014 8:54am
Whether we can close above 102.310 5pm GMT is what I will be looking at
  • #42,847
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:09am Feb 7, 2014 9:09am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} I will probably close one at EOD The risk mood should continue imo but being Friday expect profit takings Key level is 101.50
Thanks. Very clean set of trades you got there mate, great stuff. I took my G/J's off here at daily R2. Left the lowest one in from 166.47, would love to see it run a bit into next week 169.3 or 171.15 would be nice. Once we set the high for the day will see what the fib extensions look like.
  • #42,848
  • Edited 9:46am Feb 7, 2014 9:14am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting eurusd_trade
gonna start fading the UJ here again up until 103 in clips, will be happy with an avg of 102.7x 102.8x or so but it may or may not get there so going to avg in EU needs to make up the last leg on EJ if back to 140 not UJ can't sell AU yet, AU needs 90xx i believe but could be wrong edit: i take back on EU, it doesn't look great there, so UJ may have more upside but i'm still happy with avg of 102.7x
also doing some GU shts now will avg in above 1.64xx, gonna take back UJ and try to sell again if it spikes
UJ near intraday pivots now at 102.10, may find decent sup here
  • #42,849
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:56am Feb 7, 2014 9:56am
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} also doing some GU shts now will avg in above 1.64xx, gonna take back UJ and try to sell again if it spikes UJ near intraday pivots now at 102.10, may find decent sup here
yeah i think 103 inevitable, the market is very dogmatic about hitting every level because the some trend-following CTAs aren't dynamic and buy or sell at fixed levels
however i'm a bear, so i'll be offering in the 102.50-103 range
if we fail to get there in the next few days, i'll be moving offers down
  • #42,850
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:13am Feb 7, 2014 10:13am
next resistence.......103.33
  • #42,851
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:56am Feb 7, 2014 10:56am
Honestly todays up-move was a chance for my pending SELL orders to be activated on GBPJPY. but when I skipped to the weekly chart and saw the weekly pinbar which is about to be completed my expectations from those SELL orders decreased to lower levels I will keep those shorts unless 168,76 is broken.
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #42,852
  • Feb 7, 2014 12:58pm Feb 7, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Watch your GU longs, here comes UK GDP estimate....
That was a good call!
May the Probability be with you!
  • #42,853
  • Feb 7, 2014 1:37pm Feb 7, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Paulenok
Whether we can close above 102.310 5pm GMT is what I will be looking at
We did get close above, thus I have added first long at 102.300

It seems it is aiming for 102.820 short term, keeping in mind that China's fixed repo rates going higher, I am looking for yen weakness starting Monday due to PBOC injecting liquidity into banks.
Also, we have re-gained all the lost ground following Monday's sell off
  • #42,854
  • Feb 7, 2014 1:48pm Feb 7, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} We did get close above, thus I have added first long at 102.300 It seems it is aiming for 102.820 short term, keeping in mind that China's fixed repo rates going higher, I am looking for yen weakness starting Monday due to PBOC injecting liquidity into banks. Also, we have re-gained all the lost ground following Monday's sell off
Similarly, I'm also aiming at 102.850 as the first target, and 103.400 as the second target.
May the Probability be with you!
  • #42,855
  • Feb 7, 2014 2:02pm Feb 7, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Trademunity
{quote} Similarly, I'm also aiming at 102.850 as the first target, and 103.400 as the second target.
Also Nikkei closed above it's 200 sma, this shall indicate bulls are taking over for now
  • #42,856
  • Feb 8, 2014 11:05am Feb 8, 2014 11:05am
I'm still bearish on this pair, we have bearish pin bar on weekly and bearish engulf on monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj-09-02-14.png Size: 44 KB
Equities open and promptly sell off
  • #42,857
  • Feb 8, 2014 4:33pm Feb 8, 2014 4:33pm
To me looks like 101.80 to 102 is a good short term buy. Im looking at buying 101.97 with a SL at 101.39 and a TP of 104.20. 4 hour shows a momentum shift with price wanting to head back to 104.34 conversely, the 30 minute chart looks like it wants to go to 101.30.

I see a probability for 102.80 then down to about 102--101.80 area then back up to 104.34 at least.
  • #42,858
  • Feb 9, 2014 5:00pm Feb 9, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} We did get close above, thus I have added first long at 102.300 It seems it is aiming for 102.820 short term, keeping in mind that China's fixed repo rates going higher, I am looking for yen weakness starting Monday due to PBOC injecting liquidity into banks. Also, we have re-gained all the lost ground following Monday's sell off
Well you have Yen weakness from the open, need some strength on the Nikkei to keep it going.

Why would activity by PBoC weaken the Yen?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,859
  • Feb 9, 2014 5:13pm Feb 9, 2014 5:13pm
After the bullish pinbar on the weekly charts last week, I'll be getting in long a little above 102.00, just above the opening price of the candle in question.
  • #42,860
  • Feb 9, 2014 5:34pm Feb 9, 2014 5:34pm
Where's the volume, guys? This market looks dead.
Attached Image
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