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  • #874,981
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:36am Feb 7, 2014 4:36am
Quoting edindzeko
What do you guys expect fundamentally if NFP is "good"... i.e. 185k or above? USD get strong? Trying to make sense of fundamentals though i don't base my trades on them just like to follow along with the "story"
Good question. My base trade also non fundamental related. But I also hoping to know more about the "DRAMA". How about a 170K of wild guess? What will happen then??? Previous 74k with 120% growth. I am wondering why all people so optimistic about the coming "DRAMA" above 185K. ADP has already with bad results from forecast.
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #874,982
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:37am Feb 7, 2014 4:37am
Quoting mejo
{quote} ok got it, nice. now i'm looking at yesterday m5 at super mario time. when you said that prices rose on low volume, you mean that after 13.45 GMT candle? I dont understand exactly the term supply here? why can't you say it's demand? regards
PM me you email, i'll make up a chart with an explanation of what i've seen yesterday

Got some time to kill before NFP
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #874,983
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:42am Feb 7, 2014 4:42am
Quoting edindzeko
What do you guys expect fundamentally if NFP is "good"... i.e. 185k or above? USD get strong? Trying to make sense of fundamentals though i don't base my trades on them just like to follow along with the "story"
The impact of NFP going over 185K is quite strong i think. Last figure is 75K so it more than double. It negate the effect of Non Farm Productivity rising (red, reduction of people). The growing NFP will warrant for stock price get stronger, more company will optimistic and hiring more, unemployment down, and tapering will continue. The scary thought is, possibly the number 75K was "voluntarily" adjusted, so the effect will be enhance now. Could the US govt done that?
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #874,984
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:42am Feb 7, 2014 4:42am
EUR/USD is now stuck between daily PP (1.3563) and day's Open (1.35915)
if it were to reach the upper bound well before NFP, would be a nice short scalping opportunity for 10-15 pips
otherwise, it is safer to stay out until NFP
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #874,985
  • Feb 7, 2014 4:50am Feb 7, 2014 4:50am
looking forward to the posts about how the PA doesn't reflect the numbers
  • #874,986
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:02am Feb 7, 2014 5:02am
Quoting Davit
{quote} So 4 trillion dollar market is going to turn around at 20EMA's because it has magical powers? Guys please get off from this faulty thinking.Its just a mathematical lagging indicator.Price can turn at any point and at any given point it could match with EMA so? It means nothing absolutely nothing.Lets put it another way market makers who have the money to move price are not looking at moving averages.Their criteria of placing orders is much more fundamentally driven. We are at cross roads. Market must decide below 1.35 or above it. 1.35 is...
turns out, the play went as predicted. nice turn there.
  • #874,987
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:02am Feb 7, 2014 5:02am
Quoting chazzle
looking forward to the posts about how the PA doesn't reflect the numbers
Yesterday is an interesting lesson. Yes there were buyers, yes it was bear trap. But always fascinated by the relationship between Draghi saying a few words and what technicals show on chart.
  • #874,988
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:03am Feb 7, 2014 5:03am
Quoting chazzle
looking forward to the posts about how the PA doesn't reflect the numbers
Looking forward hearing some gurus, and how right they were even if it goes against them
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #874,989
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:07am Feb 7, 2014 5:07am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Looking forward hearing some gurus, and how right they were even if it goes against them
ah yes, throw out a million "levels" .... go back and quote one after the fact ...
  • #874,990
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:08am Feb 7, 2014 5:08am
if the NFP dissapoints,i`ll look for a fly to 1.37200 area then we get a confirmation of a double top rejection there and then a serious sell in the coming week!
  • #874,991
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:11am Feb 7, 2014 5:11am
Quoting edindzeko
But always fascinated by the relationship between Draghi saying a few words and what technicals show on chart.
every news/number/CB jawboning/etc ... is just a volatility event to me , I couldn't care in the slightest about the details ...
  • #874,992
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:16am Feb 7, 2014 5:16am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Yesterday is an interesting lesson. Yes there were buyers, yes it was bear trap. But always fascinated by the relationship between Draghi saying a few words and what technicals show on chart.
When technical and fundamentals coincide, they resonate quite spectacularly, that's all

On the big picture, SLOWLY changing fundamentals drive the long-term trends, on the scale of months, whereas technicals determine lower-scale trends.
Trends rule, and no noise in the news can change trend, until that trend is exhausted by itself
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #874,993
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:17am Feb 7, 2014 5:17am
..................FLAT...................

Waiting for news
Attached Image
That which does not kill us makes us stronger
  • #874,994
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:25am Feb 7, 2014 5:25am
Quoting moneymove
..................FLAT................... Waiting for news {image}
Aiihh kang. German number in red, yet EU rise. The big fishes are setting the stage for wind down to me.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #874,995
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:33am Feb 7, 2014 5:33am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} Aiihh kang. German number in red, yet EU rise. The big fishes are setting the stage for wind down to me.
How about taking from another view? GBP almost all red on High Impact, EUR/GBP is on Bullish Strength, but there are something keeping the cable from not falling. If USD really getting strong, why it don't want just fail 1st from the Cable? Don't you smell fishy there? So conclusion, if Cable keeping on above, what will happen to EUR/USD since EUR/GBP is on bullish?
I am not the SMARTEST person in the world, I am the PERSISTENT one.
  • #874,996
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:38am Feb 7, 2014 5:38am
short 1.3568 SL 1.3580 TP manual :nerd:
Once scalper always scalper
  • #874,997
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:38am Feb 7, 2014 5:38am
EUR/GBP isn't really bullish on a weekly trend, yesterday it almost touched mid-BB on the weekly, and retraced.
On a short-term (1-hr) scale it is bullish - for now
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #874,998
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:41am Feb 7, 2014 5:41am
Quoting freemen
short 1.3568 SL 1.3580 TP manual :nerd:
1.3568 short??? Right above the daily PP at 1.3564? Extremely low chance it gets breached before NFP.
At the moment of NFP it's a pure lottery
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #874,999
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:44am Feb 7, 2014 5:44am
Quoting Firstboss
{quote} 1.3568 short??? Right above the daily PP at 1.3564? Extremely low chance it gets breached before NFP. At the moment of NFP it's a pure lottery
If supply at 1,357x holds, then we could see 1,351x during NFP.
But classic spike should come, too risky for intraday trading
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #875,000
  • Feb 7, 2014 5:46am Feb 7, 2014 5:46am
Quoting Firstboss
{quote} 1.3568 short??? Right above the daily PP at 1.3564? Extremely low chance it gets breached before NFP. At the moment of NFP it's a pure lottery
Nothing is impossible in forex.
Trade your chart PLZ
Once scalper always scalper
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