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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,781
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:17am Feb 6, 2014 9:17am
Geeze, I had a short like an hour ago around 101.35 and got out at around 101.45, good thing I did that. Things could have gotten extremely ugly..
  • #42,782
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:23am Feb 6, 2014 9:23am
The JPY looks like the loser of the day to me. Look at the other Yen-Crosses ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #42,783
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:32am Feb 6, 2014 9:32am
Quoting Hickson
The JPY looks like the loser of the day to me. Look at the other Yen-Crosses ...
You can react better to market dynamics without bias
  • #42,784
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:39am Feb 6, 2014 9:39am
im going long at 101.941 tp @ 102.76
  • #42,785
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:44am Feb 6, 2014 9:44am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You can react better to market dynamics without bias
You are probably right, it was just what I saw on other pairs. Nevertheless I should be careful with judgments of this way since they are closely tied to a rathern emotional than rational view of the situation.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #42,786
  • Feb 6, 2014 9:59am Feb 6, 2014 9:59am
Hoping we can close above 101.80 in one hour, if so, gonna buy some
  • #42,787
  • Feb 6, 2014 10:16am Feb 6, 2014 10:16am
Quoting snipereye
im going long at 101.941 tp @ 102.76
Expect a retracement to ~101.50 along the way
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,788
  • Feb 6, 2014 10:23am Feb 6, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Expect a retracement to ~101.50 along the way

yeah it might pull back again, some resistence at 101.863 .. I hope we can break it earlier tho.


how you running this week? u good?
  • #42,789
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:00am Feb 6, 2014 11:00am
Quoting Paulenok
Hoping we can close above 101.80 in one hour, if so, gonna buy some
bought 101.850
  • #42,790
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:07am Feb 6, 2014 11:07am
Hi all. New to the thread. Bought @ 101.90 target 102.16
  • #42,791
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:21am Feb 6, 2014 11:21am
Quoting snipereye
{quote} yeah it might pull back again, some resistence at 101.863 .. I hope we can break it earlier tho. how you running this week? u good?
....I'm better than I was a couple of hours ago. Went long a few days too early and now just waiting...

Also, too busy playing around with stock market so didn't capitalise on this nice move.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,792
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:30am Feb 6, 2014 11:30am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Expect a retracement to ~101.50 along the way
I really hope it retraces some, but with risk on I don't think it is likely.
  • #42,793
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:41am Feb 6, 2014 11:41am
this bitch will fly up a little bit more
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #42,794
  • Feb 6, 2014 11:43am Feb 6, 2014 11:43am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....I'm better than I was a couple of hours ago. Went long a few days too early and now just waiting... Also, too busy playing around with stock market so didn't capitalise on this nice move.


Hehe I see I see, well next time you make up for it! I hope u made it better on the stock market!
  • #42,795
  • Edited 12:44pm Feb 6, 2014 12:00pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} {quote} *poof*
the first sentence i said was "it could change"
obviously you didn't read everything i wrote. i said there were 2 way stops and it was a low conviction situation.
so some people sold (mostly caused by that large seller about 15 minutes after ECB press conference, raise your hand) and we ended up taking out the upside and now it's an NFP coin flip. nothing unusual about that, it's a zero/negative sum game after fees
i still have a lower bias but there are some chances to see 103 especially with NFP so for now i'm *flat* i'd feel better about selling at 103 for a move sub 100 again.
if NFP comes out very poor and we quickly take out 100.70 i might look to pick some up ahead of 100 as I don't think it would crack directly on an NFP follow through
but i'd feel better if NFP came out good and i can sell high again
  • #42,796
  • Feb 6, 2014 12:54pm Feb 6, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
{quote} Looks like recent developments have improved short entry chances to 102.00 we hope this serves as new resistance ...Will be watching this pair closely. Cheers
Feels like forever Ive been waiting for short opportunities....
  • #42,797
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:11pm Feb 6, 2014 1:11pm
Quoting eurusd_trade
{quote} the first sentence i said was "it could change" obviously you didn't read everything i wrote. i said there were 2 way stops and it was a low conviction situation. so some people sold (mostly caused by that large seller about 15 minutes after ECB press conference, raise your hand) and we ended up taking out the upside and now it's an NFP coin flip. nothing unusual about that, it's a zero/negative sum game after fees i still have a lower bias but there are some chances to see 103 especially with NFP so for now i'm *flat* i'd feel better about...



I am as bullish as you are bearish but I agree with what your saying. I don't think NFP is a flip however, the FOMC minutes painted a somewhat bullish view of the labor market. In any event it is how the market reacts that is really the most important anyway. I would love nothing more than to reload sub 100, but my feeling is at a moments notice this could be over 110 and never look back.

I took my first yen position a week before the Tsunami, had a hell of a draw down but I stuck with it. When Abe looked like he was going to be elected there was incredible Yen weakness and I closed my position at 86 -87 thinking I could reload 82 - 84. Nope, it blew threw and never came back. I know we are close to 100 , but I seriously doubt that ever gets significantly breached. If it does I will view it as a gift.

When you look at the technicals I see several reason to be short so I am hoping that plays out and your bearish view comes to pass.
  • #42,798
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:15pm Feb 6, 2014 1:15pm
There was a bigger move on both EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY than USD/JPY. It took a lot of time for the YEN to weaken, but at the end, it paid off
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  • #42,799
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:19pm Feb 6, 2014 1:19pm
eurjpy, gbpjpy and usdjpy all start to make a move at the same time... fasten your seatbelt
  • #42,800
  • Feb 6, 2014 1:22pm Feb 6, 2014 1:22pm
Quoting uksnowman
Ken, what are your preferences out of the Yen crosses currently. Assume you are keeping close tabs on A/J, how about others?
I mainly concentrating on U/J, E/J and few N/J and A/J.
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