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  • #874,421
  • Feb 5, 2014 2:00pm Feb 5, 2014 2:00pm
The PA still show upside
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  • #874,422
  • Feb 5, 2014 2:21pm Feb 5, 2014 2:21pm
Quoting milam
PA (daily) is telling me that market is waiting for something, I had a quick look at the calendar and it seems the case…….If the market is waiting, I also wait, I am not going to chase it, if she comes to me, I will take my chance, if not, more fishing for me…. have fun...
As I thought so…… Pa looks a bit better now but still……let see
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #874,423
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:06pm Feb 5, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting milam
{quote} As I thought so…… Pa looks a bit better now but still……let see
NFP week. It is a rarity to not spend the week leading up to NFP ranging.
  • #874,424
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:10pm Feb 5, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} NFP week. It is a rarity to not spend the week leading up to NFP ranging.
But it happened in the past.

It is a fact that volatility is very low during the last weeks/months (look at he last Daily ADRs which sometimes were not even reached) and this results in one of the most boring NFPR weeks ever.
  • #874,425
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:32pm Feb 5, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} NFP week. It is a rarity to not spend the week leading up to NFP ranging.
No always in my case, if Pa shows me a set up, I will take it and normally works very well.. But this week I only had one trade.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #874,426
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:51pm Feb 5, 2014 3:51pm
This whole FX market has turned into a circus.

How good or bad can the NFPR data be to move the market 120 pips or more (which I expect to compensate for the lost week)?

It is a joke.

Or maybe the ECB rate decision? More times than not they leave everything unchanged. And then? Is this good news or bad news? Good or bad enough to shoot this buddy up or down?

What formerly were swings are now squares which come and go with alibi reasons.
  • #874,427
  • Feb 5, 2014 4:19pm Feb 5, 2014 4:19pm
Quoting CandleStar
What formerly were swings are now squares which come and go with alibi reasons.
Man, its not totally worth it trading these days ... I personally believe if money isn't in Gold / commodity currencies , are sidelining at least!
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #874,428
  • Feb 5, 2014 4:55pm Feb 5, 2014 4:55pm
That's how currencies are supposed to be, semi-stable / semi-fixed rates to other major currencies unless there are huge fundamental reasons for them to move. The huge swings up and down are not healthy, they are the result of crashing markets.
  • #874,429
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:36pm Feb 5, 2014 5:36pm
Hello. If actual min bid rate is equal to forecast then is it good for EUR or bad for EUR ? thanks
-milkeyway
  • #874,430
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:40pm Feb 5, 2014 5:40pm
Quoting kumaramy
Hello. If actual min bid rate is equal to forecast then is it good for EUR or bad for EUR ? thanks
Should be a non-event. Though with everyone expecting a rate cut and perhaps a cut is already priced in after ECB member talks last week then it could go up if it stays unchanged.
  • #874,431
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:45pm Feb 5, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Should be a non-event. Though with everyone expecting a rate cut and perhaps a cut is already priced in after ECB member talks last week then it could go up if it stays unchanged.
Your opinion is about this month but my question is about every month. Usually what happens if actual is equal to forcast ?
-milkeyway
  • #874,432
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:55pm Feb 5, 2014 5:55pm
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Your opinion is about this month but my question is about every month. Usually what happens if actual is equal to forcast ?
It differs according to how heavy the speculation is on one side of events or another ... positional unwinding could as tiny as irreverent or as big as market crashing.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #874,433
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:59pm Feb 5, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Your opinion is about this month but my question is about every month. Usually what happens if actual is equal to forcast ?
Jan 9 dropped then faded. (rate same as previous)
Dec 5 went up (rate same as previous)
Nov 7 dropped (rate cut)
Oct 2 went up (rate same as previous)
Sept 5 went down (rate same as previous)

So, it always depends on the expectations of the market not what happened in the past. Can't make a pattern out of it. People expect a cut tomorrow. If there is no cut it will go up, then depending on unemployment claims it will go further up or down again.
  • #874,434
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:31pm Feb 5, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Your opinion is about this month but my question is about every month. Usually what happens if actual is equal to forcast ?
If I read it as Kuma Ramy, sexy, but Kuma Rani would have been more sexy. I hate to read it as Kumar Amy.

Off the topic:I generally ignore the forecast, compare actual with actual, for some reason it always works.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #874,435
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:43pm Feb 5, 2014 6:43pm
I forgot that it was a GBP trade before taking a snapshot. Anyway, it need to break yesterday' s close at 1.6334 and then yesterday's high 1.6345 before betting on bulls.

I am already long with a generous sl.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #874,436
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:50pm Feb 5, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Chicky
I forgot that it was a GBP trade before taking a snapshot. Anyway, it need to break yesterday' s close at 1.6334 and then yesterday's high 1.6345 before betting on bulls. I am already long with a generous sl. {image}
1.3518 is a very important long-term fib. To me, it is the most important level for euro. The HHs and HLs are not consistent for last few weeks, indicating a strong tug of war between bulls and bears. I favor bulls
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #874,437
  • Edited 7:59pm Feb 5, 2014 7:49pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} 1.3518 is a very important long-term fib. To me, it is the most important level for euro. The HHs and HLs are not consistent for last few weeks, indicating a strong tug of war between bulls and bears. I favor bulls {image}
I favor Bulls too since my short army missiles are waiting for action.
Need 3570 to be hit 1st
Inserted Video

My favorite Russian made Tochka one of the most feared brutal weapons out there.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #874,438
  • Feb 5, 2014 8:21pm Feb 5, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I favor Bulls too since my short army missiles are waiting for action. Need 3570 to be hit 1st http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5zCzPzCiCE My favorite Russian made Tochka one of the most feared brutal weapons out there.
I am not sure how good these missiles are, American or Russian .............. let's ask a mother who's husband and 6-year old son got killed in a missile attack.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #874,439
  • Feb 5, 2014 8:39pm Feb 5, 2014 8:39pm
Does any one know why god created Tokyo Session? .............. if he did for some reason then why he created Sake?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #874,440
  • Edited 8:52pm Feb 5, 2014 8:42pm | Edited 8:52pm
Going to be quite interesting on Friday's NFP numbers il keep a good eye out for the jobless claim tomorrow.
Last ADP change numbers got revised downwards to 227K with the new at a lower 175K.
Estimated NFP of 185k sounds like too good music in my ears, dun know how they want to pull a magic trick going from 75K to a 185K with no Christmas or sudden seasonal hiring for the private sector. There isn't a change of weather in this current season still cold in the usa with a minor winter storm at the east coast. I guess 150k is a reasonable number wich would bring eur/usd back to 136. Provided Draghi and his cohorts doesn't drag euro down to hell
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
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