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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,741
  • Feb 5, 2014 10:54am Feb 5, 2014 10:54am
Quoting nobodysman
{quote} I always say; bears should hang out with cheetahs. Trap didn't work. No damage!
we know their game (MM's) they also except hunting stop loss, a better set up (more green pips for them) to break 100
if go 102 will be perfect
200 easy pips, don't need to wait more than 1-2 weeks to break 100
maybe friday as you say
  • #42,742
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:00am Feb 5, 2014 11:00am
Quoting 110101
{quote} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHl2OzgPlgA
haha never thought of that song in this manner
Do what's right for you
  • #42,743
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:13am Feb 5, 2014 11:13am
Quoting momochi
{quote} haha never thought of that song in this manner

WOOF WOOF WOOF! Where my BULLS AT!!! WE RIGHT HERE!!
  • #42,744
  • Feb 5, 2014 11:51am Feb 5, 2014 11:51am
Quoting masbro134
{quote} WOW.. Thats superb.... I'm still holding my long, entry at 102.283 don't know if should cut the loss or hold the longs
That depends on the draw down tolerance if you don't have long from much lower to support new positions.
  • #42,745
  • Feb 5, 2014 12:07pm Feb 5, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} That depends on the draw down tolerance if you don't have long from much lower to support new positions.
Currently I don't have any long entry, in UJ my entry now only that 102.283
Shall I make another Long entry at lower position 101.xxx or 100.xxx?
  • #42,746
  • Feb 5, 2014 1:22pm Feb 5, 2014 1:22pm
Gonna hit 102.00... if it gets to 101.55-101.60 its going up up up. I hope
  • #42,747
  • Edited 2:06pm Feb 5, 2014 1:45pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting masbro134
{quote} WOW.. Thats superb.... I'm still holding my long, entry at 102.283 don't know if should cut the loss or hold the longs
imo this is pretty dumb, the trendline on the 4h is extremely well defended. it's basically a descending triangle
you'd only really have to watch out above 101.75,right now there's no chance for bulls, the intraday bulls have already ran out of steam and could be in serious danger below 101.30, longer-term bears in control in the 101.50-101.75 range. currently it's much harder to print >101.75 than below 100.70 as there is no catalyst
even if it goes through 101.75 it generally has to survive a retest of the old 4h trendline to confirm any bullishness. it would be pretty unusual to see that before the lower bound breaks
for a longer-term swing trade reco short UJ at 101.40-50 sl 102.25 (at worst, 101.75ish on a successful retest after an upside break) tp sub 100 (maybe but definitely sub 100.70)
  • #42,748
  • Edited Feb 6, 2014 11:48am Feb 5, 2014 2:19pm | Edited Feb 6, 2014 11:48am
Quoting masbro134
{quote} Currently I don't have any long entry, in UJ my entry now only that 102.283 Shall I make another Long entry at lower position 101.xxx or 100.xxx?
Trust your own analysis and listen to no one as no single individual can control the markets.

U/J has tested 100.7x several times and it still holds.

I trade differently because have longs as low as 96.xx,......... and on larger time frame weekly and monthly.

Then all Indices at support, so it's just a matter of time either break or bounce depends on market sentiments. My own opinion it will bounce.

Note: personal opinion has no impacts on PA

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  • #42,749
  • Edited 2:47pm Feb 5, 2014 2:34pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Trust your own analysis and listen to no one as no single individual can control the markets. U/J has tested 101.7x several times and it still holds. I trade differently because have longs as low as 96.xx,......... and on larger time frame weekly and monthly. Then all Indices at support, so it's just a matter of time either break or bounce depends on market sentiments. My own opinion it will bounce. Note: personal opinion has no impacts on PA {image}
well, for me the dominant trend here is on the 4H, the faster TFs become stronger sells sub 101.3x, slower TFs are in no man's land atm
in fact on the 4H it kind of looks like we're headed for sub 97 eventually with maybe a pause around 99-100. it's just a disaster
and yes, u should trust your own analysis but unless you're an "investor" or "hedger" (just an excuse for corporates and real money to lose money) and not a trader the RR buying here is terrible. i respect the long-term longs but i doubt OP is trading on the same horizon as you (he's thinking about averaging down as it goes lower, terrible idea)
now the fact that i've posted this may make things more complicated since a lot of people read these forums
but i'd rather stick with bread and butter and go short here on the descending triangle risking 30pips than lose 100pips looking like a fool anyday and then asking if i should buy another clip after it breaks while fighting the new lower 4H resistance line
is this as good of a sell as it was last time at 103? no, because now we're oversold on the daily. so you shouldn't have a huge position
  • #42,750
  • Edited 3:08pm Feb 5, 2014 2:52pm | Edited 3:08pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} You are calling previous poster dumb. What guarantee you have PA and market sentiments can't change anytime soon? Or just because you said so?
it can change, i said he was being dumb because he was debating between cutting or averaging down at some random levels 1%-2% away if there's a loser which tells me that he doesn't have a plan so i decided to warn him into creating a better plan. i'm sure YOU have a plan but it's better than telling him "oh, it depends on your TF, use your own analysis, i can't tell you what to do" when it's clear that he didn't do the basic PA analysis if he's talking about possibly "buying more at 101.xx or 100.xx"
this tells me that he doesn't understand risk/reward, position sizing etc. so i gave my analysis on why i think he should be careful, especially since UJ is at risk of more weakness on lower TF
PA can always change, my analysis stands as of the time i wrote it, so people should always be dynamic and not follow anyone blindly
can we break and hold above this 4H trendline at ~101.75 and target back to 103? absolutely! it's not odds on and it will take quite a bit more effort than moving lower through 100.70 but it's possible. buying the *diagonal* on descending triangles is generally asking for trouble. here the 100 psych level is particularly critical so it might be tougher.
and now since it appears the bulls on this forum still have quite strong conviction, i feel better about my chances. time will tell
  • #42,751
  • Feb 5, 2014 2:58pm Feb 5, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Trust your own analysis and listen to no one as no single individual can control the markets. U/J has tested 101.7x several times and it still holds. I trade differently because have longs as low as 96.xx,......... and on larger time frame weekly and monthly. Then all Indices at support, so it's just a matter of time either break or bounce depends on market sentiments. My own opinion it will bounce. Note: personal opinion has no impacts on PA {image}
I am trusting you meant 100.7x , but I agree that it is going to bounce.
  • #42,752
  • Edited 3:39pm Feb 5, 2014 3:20pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't clutter this thread with E/U thread attitude. Just don't!
If it takes a little bit of attitude to save a little guy some money or at least open him to ALL possibilities, it's worth it
at the very minimum it's fair to say that there are BETTER higher RR opportunities than buying UJ here (not that it's 100% WRONG), tons of easy pips everywhere, why try something when there are stops on both sides and may come down to coin flipping NFP
whatever anyone thinks about PA, averaging down at random levels is not a valid plan
if you read everything i wrote, i think you'll find it pretty fairly balanced on all the possibilities and points
for all we know there could continue to be some crazy double whipsaw taking out both longs and shorts.
anyway,
Better than being nice and not telling it like it is. This industry is full of assholes and bandits as it is especially in the hedge fund world
  • #42,753
  • Feb 5, 2014 3:54pm Feb 5, 2014 3:54pm
Will the trend line hold?
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  • #42,754
  • Feb 5, 2014 4:45pm Feb 5, 2014 4:45pm
Quoting buylowsellhi
Will the trend line hold? {image}
Yes, i think the trend line will hold till Friday
  • #42,755
  • Feb 5, 2014 5:23pm Feb 5, 2014 5:23pm
I am selling this pair again , but I hope the bulls will push a little more and activate my pending SELL order too. Then we might see a bearish trend in the following days.

The price has broken the ascending trendline , retraced back to the horizantal resistence zone which is the trendline at the same time and confirmed the validity of that zone by today's candle. So I think ı have enough reasons to SELL technically. Apart from all the monthly bearish enfulging pattern in LFX chart confirms the strong bearish trend in JPY pairs. Regards ...


Good night to everyone ...

http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/3616/4yvt.png

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/8283/0nlm.png

Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #42,756
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:37pm Feb 5, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting selym_co
I am selling this pair again , but I hope the bulls will push a little more and activate my pending SELL order too. Then we might see a bearish trend in the following days. The price has broken the ascending trendline , retraced back to the horizantal resistence zone which is the trendline at the same time and confirmed the validity of that zone by today's candle. So I think ı have enough reasons to SELL technically. Apart from all the monthly bearish enfulging pattern in LFX chart confirms the strong bearish trend in JPY pairs. Regards ......
I can't see the bearish trend. Right now we are right about at the 50 fib of the last major move. BoJ is talking the yen down again as we speak. I think the only thing that could sink the Yen would be a huge NFP miss and/or increased risk off sentiment. Which of course is always possible.

I do like your sell orders. If I was going to sell it would be at 101.8 - 101.9. I might just TP if we hit those levels and it stalls.
  • #42,757
  • Edited 7:02pm Feb 5, 2014 6:48pm | Edited 7:02pm
I am going to short this pair if it continue failing to break 101.6. (1hr candle)
  • #42,758
  • Feb 5, 2014 6:51pm Feb 5, 2014 6:51pm
Quoting capitulation
{quote} I can't see the bearish trend. Right now we are right about at the 50 fib of the last major move. BoJ is talking the yen down again as we speak. I think the only thing that could sink the Yen would be a huge NFP miss and/or increased risk off sentiment. Which of course is always possible. I do like your sell orders. If I was going to sell it would be at 101.8 - 101.9. I might just TP if we hit those levels and it stalls.

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/1118/nc6o.png


Well , I cannot say I am %100 on the right side , nd you have good reasons too which decrease the possibility of my TP But here is the LFXJPY monthly chart which encourages me nowadays about selling EURJPY , GBPJPY and USDJPY and such pairs.The bearish enfulging pattern does not look innocent. On the other side I have "almost sure" bearish bias for EURJPY (which is almost positive correlated with USDJPY) ... and this situation also confirms the bearish bias on USDJPY.

In other words I can say there are many bearish symptoms , and some bullish symptoms on the chart (that I can see) , time will tell the truth.

Regards...
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #42,759
  • Edited 11:01pm Feb 5, 2014 7:03pm | Edited 11:01pm
Open short 101.57. And SL 1hr candle close above 101.6. Target new low.
  • #42,760
  • Feb 5, 2014 7:07pm Feb 5, 2014 7:07pm
We may be inside a capitulation/bottoming sequence. There's a triple bottom on M30 and rarely do they make four.
Get long on it is the word.

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