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  • #30,261
  • Feb 3, 2014 2:29am Feb 3, 2014 2:29am
EURAUD H1 - not so good start this morning on retracement/countertrend: -30 pips

I entered long on candle before FO, as it breaks the asian session high. There was a TDI PL bounce from SigL to the upside, while MBL was slowly rising. Price afterwards went about 12 pips in profit - while I was on the ride to work. The retracement only went to the 38% fib. I expected more.

After I have arrived I saw price allready 10 pips in loss. Afterwards price melted slowly one pip after the other, so the loss increased slowly every minute.

I should have pulled the trigger on the color-change and the break of the previous candle low but I was unsure because of the slow down move, thinking it would go up again.
After 30 pips I pulled the trigger. Afterwards it went down another 20 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-02-03 08.25 EURAUD GMT+1 - Looser.png Size: 176 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #30,262
  • Feb 3, 2014 2:50am Feb 3, 2014 2:50am
GU week 06:

Not sure how many of you are following GU since last week.
The MN candle closed below 1.6450 and the W1 shows up an Inside Bar.
So we may have a good IB Breakout trade opportunity.
On H4, the TDI is below the 32 level and that can continue. .
Today D open rather bearish down now.
We need to watch H4 closely as the ealry breakout of the week 04 low may reverse.
Watch the previous 2 weeks range.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU week 06 W1 view.png Size: 39 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #30,263
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:07am Feb 3, 2014 3:07am
EJ H1 3 Feb LO candle looks suspicious. Is that a fakey?

I mentioned about being careful of market session open and close.
See this pic below taken from FF Home Page showing the market sessions and your loaction local time.

whenever there is a session closing, you must pay attention when you see price pulling back. It can be caused by traders exiting before the session ends, it can be profit taking, ...

I recall during X-Man S3 H1 trading days, we usually exit our H1 trades before NYO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: market sessions.png Size: 32 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #30,264
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:12am Feb 3, 2014 3:12am
Quoting emmanuel7788
GU week 06: Not sure how many ...
emmanuell,

question / your opinion about your GBPUSD Weekly chart:

Let me just disregard the horizontal S/R lines for now. The chart itself looks for me, that a break of the IB could initiate a larger downside move.
What do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU week 06 W1 view comment fxfox.png Size: 55 KB
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #30,265
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:13am Feb 3, 2014 3:13am
Hi all getting back into trading after a long break. I'm long on E/U (TDI cross on H4 and its hit the support trendline). I'm short on USDCHF also on TDI cross in H4. Fingers crossed. Stops are a bit below tops and bottoms
  • #30,266
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:22am Feb 3, 2014 3:22am
Quoting spurxiii
Hi all getting back into trading after a long break. I'm long on E/U (TDI cross on H4 and its hit the support trendline). I'm short on USDCHF also on TDI cross in H4. Fingers crossed. Stops are a bit below tops and bottoms
Pretty early trigger in my opinion. The TDI hasnt "crossed" per se, green has touched red. Also keep in mind EU is a pair that has an ADR less than 80, so I don't think it's worth the hassle, but it's your call. UF is correlated to EU negatively, so this means that if one setup is invalidated both are blown.

You are also very massively countertrend, following a huge downtrend, without a higher swing low or at least a double bottom. Risky trade...
  • #30,267
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:28am Feb 3, 2014 3:28am
Quoting fxFox.mb
{quote} emmanuell, question / your opinion about your GBPUSD Weekly chart: Let me just disregard the horizontal S/R lines for now. The chart itself looks for me, that a break of the IB could initiate a larger downside move. What do you think? {image}

fxFox.mb,

Good question.

If that W1 IB appears in a trending market, the breakout will happen sooner. Look where the last time a W1 IB appeard on the W1 chart.

But now, we see many weeks of consolidation, so the breakout may not happen so soon, not immediately this week, or next week. Therefore, I pay attention to the previous 2 weeks range - the weekly OHLC.
Now, fundamentally many analyst says UK is improving so market is expecting to see a stronger GBP. It will tough both for the USD and GBP to jostle for market position.
Until I see a trend breakaway, I will trade the sideways condition which can be fairly wide ranging.

1.6376 line is what I am lookin if that will be brekoen lower.
Next suppport I look for is 1.6297

On lower timeframe D and H4, price may play around htese levels by +/= 50 to 100 pips.

But don't listen to me because I am bearish bias holding to open positions from last week.

Regards,

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #30,268
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:30am Feb 3, 2014 3:30am
Thanks for the response. I see its hit the bottom of a trendline and been waiting for the TDI to cross for 5 bars now. My chart shows the TDI crossing. Risky trade but I've been trying to follow the rules as much as I can and its been very good to me so far
  • #30,269
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:37am Feb 3, 2014 3:37am
Quoting spurxiii
Thanks for the response. I see its hit the bottom of a trendline and been waiting for the TDI to cross for 5 bars now. My chart shows the TDI crossing. Risky trade but I've been trying to follow the rules as much as I can and its been very good to me so far
From where I sit, it broke a daily trendline to go south. What is the trendline that you speak of? The TDI has indeed crossed, my chart had glitched. But still not a very convincing cross for me to go long yet. This could be nothing but a pullback before the move down continues.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 45 KB
  • #30,270
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:40am Feb 3, 2014 3:40am
GU H4 trades:

Trade Management by trailing using the APB/HA.

These trades were opened last week and protected over the weekend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H4 week 06 trade management.png Size: 33 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #30,271
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:56am Feb 3, 2014 3:56am
Ciao Emmanuel,
[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]AUssie Goooodmorning![/highlight]
[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]This is is my first trade this week +30pips!! [/highlight]
[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]I use MC candel and TDI, green>red.[/highlight]
[highlight=rgb(244, 246, 249); color:rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family:verdana,helvetica,sans-serif]I think AU probably good at 0.88180, but good for now!! [/highlight]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1.png Size: 39 KB
  • #30,272
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:56am Feb 3, 2014 3:56am
Quoting WDays
{quote} From where I sit, it broke a daily trendline to go south. What is the trendline that you speak of? The TDI has indeed crossed, my chart had glitched. But still not a very convincing cross for me to go long yet. This could be nothing but a pullback before the move down continues. {image}
The trendline going down (you can see it in your chart), like you said its a countertrend trade. Nothing in this rule against that. Not that much risk since when I went into the trade, the bottom was about 20 pips or so away so my SL is about 25 pips looking to gain about 60-70 pips
  • #30,273
  • Feb 3, 2014 3:59am Feb 3, 2014 3:59am
Quoting spurxiii
{quote} The trendline going down (you can see it in your chart), like you said its a countertrend trade. Nothing in this rule against that. Not that much risk since when I went into the trade, the bottom was about 20 pips or so away so my SL is about 25 pips looking to gain about 60-70 pips
The trendline going down? Which one is that? Could you draw it on your chart and show me please, I'm puzzled I'm not saying the trade is horrible because it's countertrend, I'm just saying I wouldn't risk a penny on it. But I have a personal thing with EU, so don't mind me
  • #30,274
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:00am Feb 3, 2014 4:00am
Quoting WDays
{quote} From where I sit, it broke a daily trendline to go south. What is the trendline that you speak of? The TDI has indeed crossed, my chart had glitched. But still not a very convincing cross for me to go long yet. This could be nothing but a pullback before the move down continues. {image}
I had the same view when I did my big picture planning for this new month and week.
Just take a look at the MN , W1 and D1 charts candles. All recent red candles.

Any buying in lower timeframe will be scalping only. Until I see a good bullish reversal chart pattern.
1.3520 is resistance zone now.

Trade Well folks.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #30,275
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:15am Feb 3, 2014 4:15am
Not sure how to attach an image. Don't think I've ever done it.

oooh it works
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-ibfx-australia-pty-2.png Size: 23 KB
  • #30,276
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:21am Feb 3, 2014 4:21am
Quoting spurxiii
Not sure how to attach an image. Don't think I've ever done it. oooh it works {image}
This isn't a correct trendline. It is the lower bounderies of a channel at best, although I don't think it's that either.

http://www.babypips.com/school/eleme...end-lines.html
  • #30,277
  • Feb 3, 2014 4:32am Feb 3, 2014 4:32am
Quoting WDays
{quote} This isn't a correct trendline. It is the lower bounderies of a channel at best, although I don't think it's that either. http://www.babypips.com/school/eleme...end-lines.html
Oh ok. Thanks for that. I'll try and draw it properly next time. Regardless I've been trading the TDI crosses at about the European opening time and its worked well on the most part. Since its currently working, I'm going to keep it up. In the mean time, back to babypips
  • #30,278
  • Edited 5:01am Feb 3, 2014 4:47am | Edited 5:01am
Dear Phx62;

Most of ur trades are after the break of the L/H of the previous candle
I show these trades in the pic with withe circles
Now I have a question:
Many times we see that it breaks and goes for about some pips and then it becomes a shadow and reverse!
how u understand that it will continue to it's down/up trend and goes for more pips in ur favorite?

Thank u
Best regards

Note:
The 2nd pic below is my trade that taken now!
Price break below the low of the prev candle and break the prev weekly&daily low
Is it OK on the basis of your trades?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014.1.29 ea h1gsdfg.jpg Size: 319 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ex.jpg Size: 129 KB
  • #30,279
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:02am Feb 3, 2014 5:02am
Quoting farhad10
Dear Phx62; Most of ur trades are after the break of the L/H of the previous candle I show these trades in the pic with withe circles Now I have a question: Many times we see that it breaks and goes for about some pips and then it becomes a shadow and reverse! how u understand that it will continue to it's down/up trend and goes for more pips in ur favorite? Thank u Best regards Note: The 2nd pic below is my trade that taken now! Price break below the low of the prev candle and break the prev weekly&daily low Is it OK on the basis of your trades?...

Might I suggest looking at the trend and looking out for nearby trendlines/Support & Resistance levels where price may leave a wick?
  • #30,280
  • Feb 3, 2014 5:04am Feb 3, 2014 5:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I had the same view when I did my big picture planning for this new month and week. Just take a look at the MN , W1 and D1 charts candles. All recent red candles. Any buying in lower timeframe will be scalping only. Until I see a good bullish reversal chart pattern. 1.3520 is resistance zone now. Trade Well folks.

Hello Emmanuel ,
Considering the strong down trend would you go short on a 15 min pattern only or do you wait for a 1 h reversal pattern for it ?
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