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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #8,001
  • Feb 1, 2014 6:25pm Feb 1, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting headfake
{quote} you'll probably find every pattern out there only works 50% of the time
I will probably break some beliefs here, but I would say if you do not trust anything you do, after testing, backtesting, forward testing and executing it right and consistently in real life every time, everything will fail ...do you agree, or do you have exceptions to the rule ?
  • #8,002
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:37pm Feb 1, 2014 9:37pm
Quoting lobogabor
{quote} I will probably break some beliefs here, but I would say if you do not trust anything you do, after testing, backtesting, forward testing and executing it right and consistently in real life every time, everything will fail ...do you agree, or do you have exceptions to the rule ?
I did a study probably 6 or 7 years ago on a few patterns and thats the kind of numbers I was coming out, now I'm sure if you added other filters and stuff you could probably do better but that was just on the patterns .
I'm actually of the opinion everything works,MA's or whatever if you stick to your rules and are disciplined on what you've tested and studied. I also have a brilliant method for checking system performance and it keeps me inline too, and no it doesn't involve hypnosis
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #8,003
  • Feb 1, 2014 10:54pm Feb 1, 2014 10:54pm
Quoting itinerant
{quote} At the start of the week, I plot out all the high impact news relating to the pair I'm trading as vertical lines. That works well for shorter time frames, but visually it won't work well on the longer time frames. For the longer TF, you need to code a countdown timer.

No. It is not the way that I have found to avoid news.
-milkeyway
  • #8,004
  • Feb 1, 2014 11:25pm Feb 1, 2014 11:25pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusddaily.png Size: 32 KB
-milkeyway
  • #8,005
  • Feb 2, 2014 2:52am Feb 2, 2014 2:52am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoilh4.png Size: 44 KB
-milkeyway
  • #8,006
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:40am Feb 2, 2014 4:40am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} No. It is not the way that I have found to avoid news.
Fair enough
  • #8,007
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:51am Feb 2, 2014 4:51am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} Fair enough
Unable to guess? Should I tell the answer ?
-milkeyway
  • #8,008
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:56am Feb 2, 2014 4:56am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Unable to guess? Should I tell the answer ?
Go for it
  • #8,009
  • Feb 2, 2014 4:57am Feb 2, 2014 4:57am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} Go for it
Tell me your timezone.
-milkeyway
  • #8,010
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:03am Feb 2, 2014 5:03am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Tell me your timezone.
I have the FF calendar set to my broker time zone, which is UTC+2
  • #8,011
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:09am Feb 2, 2014 5:09am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} I have the FF calendar set to my broker time zone, which is UTC+2
you mean GMT +2 right ?
-milkeyway
  • #8,012
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:12am Feb 2, 2014 5:12am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} you mean GMT +2 right ?
Yup, same thing.
  • #8,013
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:24am Feb 2, 2014 5:24am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} Yup, same thing.
Ok. if you are a day trader, this is gona work for you. Using calender select only those currencies of which there is always no news from 6am or 9am (morning) to 11pm or 1am (night)..and trade those currency pairs for the day..you have to trade them only between above time..

I think for day, the suitable currency pairs for you are...AUDNZD, AUDJPY & NZDJPY,


And If you like to trade in night...find those currency pairs of which there is no news from 4pm or 6pm (afternoon/evening) to 9am (Next day morning)...you have to trade them only between above time..
-milkeyway
  • #8,014
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:34am Feb 2, 2014 5:34am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} Ok. if you are a day trader, this is gona work for you. Using calender select only those currencies of which there is always no news from 6am or 9am (morning) to 11pm or 1am (night)..and trade those currency pairs for the day..you have to trade them only between above time.. I think for day, the suitable currency pairs for you are...AUDNZD, AUDJPY & NZDJPY, And If you like to trade in night...find those currency pairs of which there is no news from 4pm or 6pm (afternoon/evening) to 9am (Next day morning)...you have to trade them only between...
An interesting idea, thanks for suggesting it!

The problem for me using that approach would be spread... AUDNZD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY have terrible spreads which is a big problem on the short time frames.
I also bounce around time zones a lot (hence the name!).

But it is a nice, elegant solution nevertheless.
  • #8,015
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:41am Feb 2, 2014 5:41am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} An interesting idea, thanks for suggesting it! The problem for me using that approach would be spread... AUDNZD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY have terrible spreads which is a big problem on the short time frames. I also bounce around time zones a lot (hence the name!). But it is a nice, elegant solution nevertheless.
If you want to avoid news spikes, unfortunately you can trade EU, GU, USDCHF only between 8pm (night) to 9 am (morning of next day)
-milkeyway
  • #8,016
  • Feb 2, 2014 5:53am Feb 2, 2014 5:53am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} If you want to avoid news spikes, unfortunately you can trade EU, GU, USDCHF only between 8pm (night) to 9 am (morning of next day)
I think that depends on the time frame you are trading. If you are trading short time frames (233 tick, 5M) you are not typically in a trade for too long. This means you can avoid the news during the day. It becomes much more difficult if you hold positions for a long time.

Personally, I keep the following policy:
No trade opened within 30 minutes of a high impact news event that directly affects the current pair.
All positions closed or moved to BE within 5 minutes of a high impact news event that directly affects the current pair.

Often, the market goes quiet before major news events anyway. This helps because it means there aren't many trading opportunities when I shouldn't be trading!

This policy is normally sufficient to keep me away from the news spikes, but still gives me enough time in the trading day to operate on all pairs. It also means I get to trade when London and NY are open, which typically present the largest number of opportunities.
But it may not suit everybody.
  • #8,017
  • Feb 2, 2014 6:00am Feb 2, 2014 6:00am
Quoting itinerant
{quote} I think that depends on the time frame you are trading. If you are trading short time frames (233 tick, 5M) you are not typically in a trade for too long. This means you can avoid the news during the day. It becomes much more difficult if you hold positions for a long time. Personally, I keep the following policy: No trade opened within 30 minutes of a high impact news event that directly affects the current pair. All positions closed or moved to BE within 5 minutes of a high impact news event that directly affects the current pair. Often,...
How much spread your broker provide for AUDNZD & AUDJPY ? What is your broker name ?
-milkeyway
  • #8,018
  • Edited Feb 3, 2014 4:48am Feb 2, 2014 6:09am | Edited Feb 3, 2014 4:48am
Quoting kumaramy
{quote} How much spread your broker provide for AUDNZD & AUDJPY ? What is your broker name ?
Typically between 5 and 7 pips for AN and AJ (versus <2 pips for EU and UJ).
  • #8,019
  • Edited 10:40pm Feb 2, 2014 10:16pm | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting kumaramy
Long only after bar by bar confirmation. {image}
I was very late to enter that point due to sleep late morning.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: audjpym15.png Size: 36 KB
-milkeyway
  • #8,020
  • Feb 2, 2014 11:23pm Feb 2, 2014 11:23pm
Testing this one too...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdm5.png Size: 28 KB
-milkeyway
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