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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,461
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:52pm Jan 31, 2014 1:52pm
Chinese manufacturing pmi in few hours, anybody knows what impact on this pair? thinking to let my longs open during the weekend
maybe a gap up or down?
have a good rest all of you
  • #42,462
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:10pm Jan 31, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting artocarpus
took a long at 102.2 target 103.40-70 i think wednesday taper effect not priced yet, thought im bearish in this pair always, also MM need a better set up for short and brake 100 psychologically line
Emerging market panic, and Chinese shadow-banking miscreants are driving stocks down. That can only be bad for UJ.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,463
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:33pm Jan 31, 2014 2:33pm
i quit my long for 6 pips due to weekend will revise on Monday
  • #42,464
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:30pm Jan 31, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting artocarpus
Chinese manufacturing pmi in few hours, anybody knows what impact on this pair? thinking to let my longs open during the weekend maybe a gap up or down? have a good rest all of you
A PMI between 50 and 51 won't have much impact. Tough a number below 50 or above 51 may create some gap on Monday. Especially a number below 50 will be a nightmare scenario for world indices but probably it won't happen.
  • #42,465
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:41pm Jan 31, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting nobodysman
Short from 104.30. Big divergence on weekly graph. SL 104.90
Quoting nobodysman
Will wait with these shorts a few months if I don't get stopped. Target TP is around 400-500 pips till end of March.
9th day. So far 230 pips. I still continue with same position. Target TP remains same between 99-100.
  • #42,466
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:26pm Jan 31, 2014 7:26pm
Chinese manufacturing numbers came out a bit worse than expected. I will be looking to short, next week.
  • #42,467
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:30pm Jan 31, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting card
Chinese manufacturing numbers came out a bit worse than expected. I will be looking to short, next week.
What does china have to do with usdjpy?
  • #42,468
  • Jan 31, 2014 7:35pm Jan 31, 2014 7:35pm
Quoting trexy123
{quote} What does china have to do with usdjpy?

Bad chinese numbers = unwinding of carry trades = lower U/J
  • #42,469
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:35pm Jan 31, 2014 8:35pm
Sunday market opening Monday ... 102.50 103.30 103.80 ... Tuesday ... Wednesday ... Thursday, Friday 105,00
Attached Image
  • #42,470
  • Jan 31, 2014 8:47pm Jan 31, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting Robinho
Sunday market opening Monday ... 102.50 103.30 103.80 ... Tuesday ... Wednesday ... Thursday, Friday 105,00 {image}
charts tell a different story. right now. a pull back is expected but how far?
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #42,471
  • Feb 1, 2014 3:06am Feb 1, 2014 3:06am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} What does china have to do with usdjpy?
You would think nothing but in reality quite a bit. If it weren't for the Chinese buying up real estate in California I bet we never would have seen the recovery that we did as they came in with cash and bought up a lot of homes and commercial properties.
  • #42,472
  • Feb 1, 2014 3:28am Feb 1, 2014 3:28am
Quoting Zink
My forecast! {image}
that's what i was thinking too. momentum siding with the bears, downward triangle
  • #42,473
  • Feb 1, 2014 3:35am Feb 1, 2014 3:35am

  1. nomura suggest flat on this pair, few times i agree with banks usd/jpy maybe break 100 maybe goes 104 again
    february looks too me like scalpers paradise, i will be a scalper for next month also targeting 40-50 pips only each trade

  • #42,474
  • Feb 1, 2014 3:38am Feb 1, 2014 3:38am
Quoting wannabtrader
{quote} daily rsi is coming out of oversold and we are at h4 support levels in uptrend. so I disagree, but interesting to see your point of view and anything is possible. good luck {image}
The rsi can stay in oversold/bought territory for a while without reversal, so I myself wouldn't give it much weight in this case. what do you think?
  • #42,475
  • Feb 1, 2014 4:37am Feb 1, 2014 4:37am
Quoting card
Chinese manufacturing numbers came out a bit worse than expected. I will be looking to short, next week.
Card I disagree based on hsBC the fear was that we would have contraction in the Chinese manufacturing for the first time in a long time. The fact that it continues to be expansionary is positive for risk assets like NZD and AUD
  • #42,476
  • Feb 1, 2014 4:47am Feb 1, 2014 4:47am
Quoting Robinho
Sunday market opening Monday ... 102.50 103.30 103.80 ... Tuesday ... Wednesday ... Thursday, Friday 105,00
Yes, you are right!

I have 4 trades open (buy) and look for 105 next week too

Happy trading.
  • #42,477
  • Feb 1, 2014 7:45am Feb 1, 2014 7:45am
Not so fast, 102.00 and 101.50 are tough levels

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  • #42,478
  • Feb 1, 2014 8:18am Feb 1, 2014 8:18am
Quoting card
{quote} Bad chinese numbers = unwinding of carry trades = lower U/J
Card, you sure is bad? I think this is a very good number even though is below forecast.

We have the hsbc mid jan result which is like 49 plus and aud dived and this result of 50 plus is a very positive note.
  • #42,479
  • Feb 1, 2014 9:59am Feb 1, 2014 9:59am
Quoting Nilfmonkey
{quote} that's what i was thinking too. momentum siding with the bears, downward triangle
I see strong support at 102, PA has bounced there a couple of times as mentioned by Ken A.
Also Chinese numbers are not bad, just missed consensus by a shred.
It will really depend upon whether the market believes stocks will suffer or that the economy is really Ok.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,480
  • Edited 11:08am Feb 1, 2014 10:10am | Edited 11:08am
The numbers are surely bad. How the market will react, we'll only know tomorrow night. I don't have any open positions going into the weekend. I'll watch what happens when we open Sunday night.
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