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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #361,601
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:01am Jan 31, 2014 3:01am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} So you enjoy reading about news of 50% of a country's people being unemployed ?
no not at all.I am very sympathetic having myself unemployed too many times even to count.I just find it funny that they even bother post it as "news"
People put too much faith on Euro.It should be traded 1.30 and lower.
I just don't understand traders who long the Euro.There is no "good" news there.
12.7% is the joke.Real number is probably 30%+
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #361,602
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:09am Jan 31, 2014 3:09am
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are putting lot of faith on Cable longs. 65 lots. I know its demo and I hope your live trades are not the same....Too much at risk Regards
Good day to you, Sir

My live trade is on EU at this time. And it's a single trade. No - would not even attempt. The Demo is for testing purposes on strategies and for indicators I develop for myself. Also to make me used to larger lot sizes, draw downs and the like.

I'm attempting to run the demo for 365 days with a nett positive outcome - whilst test driving various short term and longer term strats. All in preparation..

Trade well

Regards
  • #361,603
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:18am Jan 31, 2014 3:18am
looks like a little fake on the 30 min could move now
  • #361,604
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:18am Jan 31, 2014 3:18am
Quoting Ill-b-back
With tapering news Wed but crap US numbers yesterday and no current news on the calendar, I think we will be watching paint dry today.
Couldn't agree more...
  • #361,605
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:19am Jan 31, 2014 3:19am
I am short cable at 1,6465. Trying to break the daily low now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #361,606
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:26am Jan 31, 2014 3:26am
I believe it will end with 1.63* today. Just scalping anyway.
  • #361,607
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:30am Jan 31, 2014 3:30am
Quoting Davit
Italian monthly unemployment news at 4am Article confirmed that roughly 50% of Italians are unemployed. Euro Jobless Record Not Whole Story as Italians Give Up I can only short the Euro.There is no other option.
No personal offense, but the rofl Smiley linked to the news that 50 % of the population is unemployed seems a bit rude to me.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #361,608
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:33am Jan 31, 2014 3:33am
Good day,

Some general info
Attached Image
  • #361,609
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:38am Jan 31, 2014 3:38am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} 44 test on the cards...
tested
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #361,610
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:46am Jan 31, 2014 3:46am
Quoting Davit
{quote} You are putting lot of faith on Cable longs. 65 lots. I know its demo and I hope your live trades are not the same....Too much at risk Regards
As a final point - for live trading, I only use a probability calculation to trade. 4hr and daily only. Trades are closed at the end of the 4hr bar traded, or at the end of the day - if daily bar traded. Time is my stop loss. Never more than 2 entries allowed. Lot size based on % probability. Do not trade anything with a less than 62.5% probability.

62.5% - 67.4% probability - 0.20 lot total
67.5% - 72.4% probability - 0.30 lot total
72.5% or higher probability - 0.50 lot total

So - today, EU gave me 75% probability on the daily. In theory, I will win 3 and lose 1. Entries placed. Trade will be closed just before broker closes today. either in profit, or in loss. Then move on.

Regards
  • #361,611
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:49am Jan 31, 2014 3:49am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} tested
Currently some good rejection at that level. See if she holds..
  • #361,612
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:53am Jan 31, 2014 3:53am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} As a final point - for live trading, I only use a probability calculation to trade. 4hr and daily only. Trades are closed at the end of the 4hr bar traded, or at the end of the day - if daily bar traded. Time is my stop loss. Never more than 2 entries allowed. Lot size based on % probability. Do not trade anything with a less than 62.5% probability. 62.5% - 67.4% probability - 0.20 lot total 67.5% - 72.4% probability - 0.30 lot total 72.5% or higher probability - 0.50 lot total So - today, EU gave me 75% probability on the daily. In theory,...
Mr. T,

What're your probability figures on cable today?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #361,613
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:53am Jan 31, 2014 3:53am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} As a final point - for live trading, I only use a probability calculation to trade. 4hr and daily only. Trades are closed at the end of the 4hr bar traded, or at the end of the day - if daily bar traded. Time is my stop loss. Never more than 2 entries allowed. Lot size based on % probability. Do not trade anything with a less than 62.5% probability. 62.5% - 67.4% probability - 0.20 lot total 67.5% - 72.4% probability - 0.30 lot total 72.5% or higher probability - 0.50 lot total So - today, EU gave me 75% probability on the daily. In theory,...
how do you arrive at the percentages?
  • #361,614
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:59am Jan 31, 2014 3:59am
Quoting grin
{quote} how do you arrive at the percentages?
By calculating
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #361,615
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:01am Jan 31, 2014 4:01am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} As a final point - for live trading, I only use a probability calculation to trade. 4hr and daily only. Trades are closed at the end of the 4hr bar traded, or at the end of the day - if daily bar traded. Time is my stop loss. Never more than 2 entries allowed. Lot size based on % probability. Do not trade anything with a less than 62.5% probability. 62.5% - 67.4% probability - 0.20 lot total 67.5% - 72.4% probability - 0.30 lot total 72.5% or higher probability - 0.50 lot total So - today, EU gave me 75% probability on the daily. In theory,...
I would revise 0.20 to 0.02, 0.30 to 0.03 and 0.50 to 0.05 when you first start on the live. It feels kind of like a heart attack, when the first live pip goes against you and you are at -5 usd + spread even when you have a 2-3k account.
  • #361,616
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:03am Jan 31, 2014 4:03am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Mr. T, What're your probability figures on cable today?
Sir, GM

Too low to consider. No indication on either short / nor long on both the 4hr chart as well as the Daily. It's a 50/50.

I could show you another animal though - but it is still early days.. in fact - this is the first demo trade taken on the idea..

Based on 4hr charts.Therefor my longs.

Regards
  • #361,617
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:04am Jan 31, 2014 4:04am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} By calculating

Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #361,618
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:06am Jan 31, 2014 4:06am
Wow, and to think a lot of ppl were bullish the euro
  • #361,619
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:07am Jan 31, 2014 4:07am
16750 - let's get it over and done with
  • #361,620
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:11am Jan 31, 2014 4:11am
Closed all my Shorts 6447
I am out.
Too many pips to count bottom line is finished the month 20%
both live Good night guys.See you next month!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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