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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,381
  • Jan 30, 2014 2:50pm Jan 30, 2014 2:50pm
Take a good look at when the last time price was at that point ...December 5th, 2013. And see how many pips it went after , 372 pips !!!
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  • #42,382
  • Jan 30, 2014 2:53pm Jan 30, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
Take a good look at when the last time price was at that point ...December 5th, 2013. And see how many pips it went after , 372 pips !!! {image}

now add in a 200 day EMA and see the overall movement of price. only thing that's gonna change this bear move is a major fundamental event
  • #42,383
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:02pm Jan 30, 2014 3:02pm
Quoting allisonmagic
{quote} now add in a 200 day EMA and see the overall movement of price. only thing that's gonna change this bear move is a major fundamental event
Hmm 200 EMA is an indicator that a lot of professionals use , no question of that and its kind of ironic that the zone 103.37 is exactly where the 200 EMA is and thats where I put first tp 1 and moving SL to BE. Its a testamnet and acknowledgement that the bears could be right at that point but never the less it boils down to where the orders are. All I can do I use price action and high probabilty set-ups to judge my positions and leave the rest to the market.
  • #42,384
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:18pm Jan 30, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting MrketSniper
Closed my Long. Going short.
I'm not sure I'll short this right now. I'll probably consider going long if it breaks 103.
May the Probability be with you!
  • #42,385
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:04pm Jan 30, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
Take a good look at when the last time price was at that point ...December 5th, 2013. And see how many pips it went after , 372 pips !!! {image}


My counter argument to that would be that 1) that move happened when it was clearly in an uptrend from 97.50, while this trend (although not confirmed) is leaning bearish, IMO. 2) The two recent candles did not get that close to the candles you are referring to (which bounced because of strong 101.50 support. I could see this pair either ranging or moving down to test that 101.50 level. Fundamentals will drive price.
  • #42,386
  • Jan 30, 2014 10:58pm Jan 30, 2014 10:58pm
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys. USD/JPY: 0,5% risk sell activated @ 102,70. SL @ 103,00. Good luck all!
Good morning traders. Seems like yesterday's USD/JPY short, after a bit of a struggle, is now getting some downside power. The position is floating with some profit already and SL @ +1. My TP1 is located @ 102,20.

Wish all a wonderful day with lost of good mood!
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Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #42,387
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:30pm Jan 30, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting htsang
USDJPY Trade setup 30th Jan, 2014 {image} Sell zone is approaching. Will be shorting there with partial take profits when I have 1:1 - 1:1.5 then leave small portion to ride down to my anticipated level
Hey guys, got 40pips as per my short setup yesterday post., took partial profit already, leaving small portion to see if it can perform another low
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Only the strong survives!
  • #42,388
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:33pm Jan 30, 2014 11:33pm
Further more, although there is a strong support area which we recently performed double bottoms, for those who uses indicators in conjunction to their analysis would be interested to know the divergence in stochastic.
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Only the strong survives!
  • #42,389
  • Jan 30, 2014 11:34pm Jan 30, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting htsang
{quote} Hey guys, got 40pips as per my short setup yesterday post., took partial profit already, leaving small portion to see if it can perform another low {image}
well trade.
i am short from 102.45 sl 103.it is one standard lot and i am risking 25% capital for 80% gain.
let see
  • #42,390
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:38am Jan 31, 2014 1:38am
Nice to see everybody making pips...anyway this is it so far .
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  • #42,391
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:41am Jan 31, 2014 1:41am
i like this interactive trading threads. real people taking actual real trades.. not like the theory and bs you see everywhere else in this forum.

thanks guys for contributing, this has been a huge help to me to see REAL traders in FF.
  • #42,392
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:41am Jan 31, 2014 1:41am
Quoting Trademunity
{quote} I'm not sure I'll short this right now. I'll probably consider going long if it breaks 103.
Then why dont you consider going short? It was rejected at 103 level.
  • #42,393
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:44am Jan 31, 2014 1:44am
previous swing high was at 102.92 and got rejected
  • #42,394
  • Jan 31, 2014 1:47am Jan 31, 2014 1:47am
the market is ranging and flat after EM sell off. it is searching for direction.
it is vulnerable to the upside still, short covering. Shorts will have to cover if no further downside.
  • #42,395
  • Jan 31, 2014 2:01am Jan 31, 2014 2:01am
Usd/Jpy is linked to a number of crosses like Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Jpy ...gbp/jpy is bound to go down to 168.07 due to the Euro/Gbp pressure at the end of the month ( ppl need to buy lots of the Eur at the end of the month) So its normal for the pressure from this, to spill into Gbp/Jpy and then spill into USd/jpy. Hopefully the sooner Usd/Jpy drops and rebounds with momentum before US session the better for longs
  • #42,396
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:07am Jan 31, 2014 3:07am
Wednesday's FOMC manoeuvre should provide strength to USD. I read on FF somewhere that Yen-selling by the BoJ happens in the earlier parts of the month, so next week may see the start of more upside to UJ. However I can't help feeling that BoJ is probably happy with the current exchange rate and is less inclined to intervene. That just leaves investment buying of EJ and with the Euro tanking at the moment it will not push UJ particularly hard.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #42,397
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:15am Jan 31, 2014 3:15am
just taking a look at nikkei and uj correlation.

assuming the correlation holds positive...we see a possible support (bet there's a divergence somewhere there) in nikkei at the range low; however in the uj its the middle of the low consolidation.

IF we see a rally here in nikkei as with other asian stocks (hsi had a big reaction to key support this mrng) ...it may be enough momentum to retest 130.3x resistancee and possibly break through on uj.
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  • #42,398
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:35am Jan 31, 2014 3:35am
I took a quick scalp on the Gbp/yen short on my scalping account....this was the move i was refering too when I said i wanted the Yen crosses to drop real quick and rebound before the NY session. And hopefully with enough bullish momentum we could get to the maximum ADR of Usd/Yen perhaps to 103.25
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  • #42,399
  • Jan 31, 2014 3:59am Jan 31, 2014 3:59am
once Usd/Jpy comes down to 102.00 - 102.30 and Gbp/jpy comes down to 168.20 or 167.89 especially if this happens during the US session the bullish momentum is going to be violent . And in all the crosses the bulls are waiting will add more fire to the move. Again we are dealing with probabilities and ill say this is upwards of 70% .Maybe less Been that its the end of the month things and might slow down due to the institutional traders risk aversion and wanting to close the month in profits. But lets see
  • #42,400
  • Jan 31, 2014 4:32am Jan 31, 2014 4:32am
Out of gbp/Jpy for 51+ pips , would have preferred the reversal on the previous close or ADR low. That way a bullish pin bar is enough to enter long but now waiting for the 3 candle stick reversal is the optimal way to go. In any event I dont trade from 5 am to 8am , hopefully thats enough time for the reversal and get in at around 8am. Cheers
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