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USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,341
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:38pm Jan 29, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} You're actually right (IMHO). It will be interesting to see the outcome. As FOMC didn't "shake things loose" maybe tomorrow GDP will ??


Hopefully its all good data tomorrow
  • #42,342
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:47pm Jan 29, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} Hopefully its all good data tomorrow
Hopefully good for USD because I am, at this moment, short G/U (about @ BE)
We'll see how that works out.

G/L
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,343
  • Jan 29, 2014 7:50pm Jan 29, 2014 7:50pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Hopefully good for USD because I am, at this moment, short G/U (about @ BE) We'll see how that works out. G/L

I am long U/J
  • #42,344
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:03pm Jan 29, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} I am long U/J
And there is the dilemma.

As "trademunity" stated "The Fed's additional $10 billion tapering decision is causing USD strength and risk aversion (JPY strength) at the same time."

Should this "mini-crisis" extend there will be further yen strength (against USD) as well as USD strength against
other majors.

Only time will tell.......
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,345
  • Jan 29, 2014 8:09pm Jan 29, 2014 8:09pm
Further to my last chart a few posts ago, today the TOPIX is breaking down to new lows = USD/JPY on borrowed time (but then again I am just talking my book I know)

Perhaps the best short is NZD/JPY, I think the Longs are going to face the music this week and next on this one.

Having said that I am talking a two week 300 or 400 pts move which I accept is a timeframe and magnatude that most here don't trade... I think this smells like one of the three or four annual moves that I make most of my money on in any one year. There I've just talked myself into doubling my position...damn.
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  • #42,346
  • Edited 11:02pm Jan 29, 2014 10:18pm | Edited 11:02pm
Time told now lets see if she continues!
  • #42,347
  • Jan 29, 2014 10:55pm Jan 29, 2014 10:55pm
Dang. I was totally unprepared for the stupid FOMC and Turkish interest rate decisions today. They messed up my trading for the day. In fact, I didn't even know about them until after-the-fact.

I spent all day trying to break even, and finally just managed to pull a $15 profit on the day. Ughhh... disappointed, but I'll take it. It's better than being down $450 like I was earlier (on a ~$1k account).

Guess it's just one of those days...

Hope you all had more success than I did!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #42,348
  • Jan 29, 2014 11:02pm Jan 29, 2014 11:02pm
I am short term bullish, midterm bearish and long term bullish here. There are both long opportunities and short opportunities here. So far right now been bullish ill be looking for that candlestick in the ellipse to close bullish for me to enter this trade. Although its a 1 to 1 risk ratio with TP at 103.37 zone ( 103.00 isnt a major resistance zone) ....considering the opportunity for this to go to the next zone at 104.50 ( 3 to 1 risk ratio ) ill say this is worth taking a look. if it gets to just 103.40 and reverses we can just take our 80+ pips and look for short entry.

Note that the reversal at 102.00 is a classic double bottom....In it by itself its not powerful but when you combine it with the 102.00 strong support zone plus the fact that price was rejected strongly forming bullish pin bars plus the second pin bar is a little bit higher than the first that occured 3 days ago plus the fact thats theres space to the left where price hasnt visited in a while. This is a price action traders dream trade. Excuse my excitement ill be posting results soon
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  • #42,349
  • Jan 29, 2014 11:04pm Jan 29, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
I am short term bullish, midterm bearish and long term bullish here. There are both long opportunities and short opportunities here. So far right now been bullish ill be looking for that candlestick in the ellipse to close bullish for me to enter this trade. Although its a 1 to 1 risk ratio with TP at 103.37 zone ( 103.00 isnt a major resistance zone) ....considering the opportunity for this to go to the next zone at 104.50 ( 3 to 1 risk ratio ) ill say this is worth taking a look. if it gets to just 103.40 and reverses we can just take our 80+...

I am right there with you. Let me know how it turns out.
  • #42,350
  • Jan 29, 2014 11:35pm Jan 29, 2014 11:35pm
Quoting IveGotQuads
Note that the reversal at 102.00 is a classic double bottom....In it by itself its not powerful but when you combine it with the 102.00 strong support zone plus the fact that price was rejected strongly forming bullish pin bars plus the second pin bar is a little bit higher than the first that occured 3 days ago plus the fact thats theres space to the left where price hasnt visited in a while. This is a price action traders dream trade. Excuse my excitement ill be posting results soon {image}
Good analysis. I've been watching the 102 double bottom since the FOMC announcement to see how it held up, but didn't want to take action until I was confident in the direction of the break.

I finally managed to get in around 102.20 (a bit late) and took profits around 102.45, which allowed me to recover all my losses for the day and a bit more. It was a quick trade/scalp though and it is possible that we may see another test of 102 still, so please use caution.

But if I had to guess -- and put money on it -- I'd say 102.20 is the next obvious support level, and perhaps even 102.40. But just use caution... that is all!
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Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #42,351
  • Jan 30, 2014 12:59am Jan 30, 2014 12:59am
This is my set-up buy order @ 102.52 SL at 101.74 just below the 1st pin bar and Final Tp target at 104.48 projected hold until friday close depending on PA. Position sizing adjusted to Sl and will take half off at the 103.35 zone moving Sl to BE.
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  • #42,352
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:20am Jan 30, 2014 3:20am
Hows your long looking?
  • #42,353
  • Jan 30, 2014 3:52am Jan 30, 2014 3:52am
I expect the pair to be closed this week around 101.60 as per my weekly chart.
  • #42,354
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:04am Jan 30, 2014 4:04am
Quoting nobodysman
I expect the pair to be closed this week around 101.60 as per my weekly chart.
Yeah, I am also expecting 101.50 mark
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  • #42,355
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:12am Jan 30, 2014 4:12am
where is usd/jpy 120 crowd?
  • #42,356
  • Jan 30, 2014 4:36am Jan 30, 2014 4:36am
Went to sleep after entry and just waking up now ....surprised im down just 14 pips...these kind of trades are not for the faint hearted and you can easily decide to close it ( thats why I dont watch it ) basically im either going to get stopped out or its friday closing hr and will close the trade if not in profit by then.
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  • #42,357
  • Jan 30, 2014 6:32am Jan 30, 2014 6:32am
Maybe USA will put out some good data in an hour
  • #42,358
  • Jan 30, 2014 7:12am Jan 30, 2014 7:12am
USDJPY Trade setup 30th Jan, 2014
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-86BYQ8PGMA...1-30_23-04.jpg
Sell zone is approaching.
Will be shorting there with partial take profits when I have 1:1 - 1:1.5 then leave small portion to ride down to my anticipated level
Only the strong survives!
  • #42,359
  • Jan 30, 2014 7:17am Jan 30, 2014 7:17am
Although I personally do not trade news, but If I am in the market with position and Im not in ideal profits I would just move SL to breakeven. If Ive accumulated resonable profits then taking half will be ideal and move Sl to BE. If I have 70+ pips then getting out the market is my best option. So far so good, but you can never tell how the market responds even tho we are bullish about this pair.
recent screen shots
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  • #42,360
  • Jan 30, 2014 7:22am Jan 30, 2014 7:22am
Quoting htsang
USDJPY Trade setup 30th Jan, 2014 {image} Sell zone is approaching. Will be shorting there with partial take profits when I have 1:1 - 1:1.5 then leave small portion to ride down to my anticipated level
Hey Htsang goodluck on our trade
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