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  • #872,501
  • Jan 27, 2014 5:27pm Jan 27, 2014 5:27pm
Quoting marcof91
{quote}{quote} If they have skills then they even would put SL. If tp is smaller than sl than also r/r is,and on long run they will fail if they don't have those skills (just like me by the way ).

I think putting one TP is a sure way to fail, people dont understand RR R fully, Yes a 1:1 51+% win rate is ideal but the market actually doesnt care, no one really gives a shit. The market is dynamic, therefore traders need to be too. So taking profit at multiple levels and moving a stop is a much wiser thing to do, wouldnt you say? So yes maybe your first tp is 0.5:1 Reward : Risk but say price makes it there, you can then move your stop down and trail it for maybe a 2:1 or however long you can hold on and it goes for. Or you could take a little profit and move stop half way so your stop is smaller. I always feel sorry for people who actually go to the extent of setting there TP's BASED ON a RR of 1:1 or whatever. If it was this easy we could all just throw random trades and if we had a big enough RR ratio that could cover our losses we would win.
Just here to help,
Ryan
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #872,502
  • Jan 27, 2014 5:39pm Jan 27, 2014 5:39pm
Quoting marcof91
{quote} Why you have your tp smaller than your stoploss? IMO that's gambling. Of course i would short euro because will not reach 1.38 again for sure and then BANG! SL HIT! Then you would think: "why i didn't put the same margin of tp for sl? now i shouldn't be loosing so much."
Bull Shit.. How about the probability of one (TP) being hit before the SL.. SL should be in a place where the price has no business going. Hence the name "Stop Loss". Period. Why do you need a stop loss to know that you were wrong (unless you are away from the screens)? Don't you know when wrong? Then you are the one gambling.. You guys talk mostly out of your ass and without a damn clue..
  • #872,503
  • Jan 27, 2014 5:42pm Jan 27, 2014 5:42pm
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  • #872,504
  • Jan 27, 2014 5:45pm Jan 27, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}

Looks like an architect or engineers work on something
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #872,505
  • Jan 27, 2014 5:56pm Jan 27, 2014 5:56pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Looks like an architect or engineers work on something
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  • #872,506
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:18pm Jan 27, 2014 6:18pm
Hey guys, how will the US tapering effect the dollar? will it weaken it or strengthen it?
If it weakens the dollar, we can expect a push up in the euro right?
  • #872,507
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:28pm Jan 27, 2014 6:28pm
Quoting marcof91
{quote} Why you have your tp smaller than your stoploss? IMO that's gambling. Of course i would short euro because will not reach 1.38 again for sure and then BANG! SL HIT! Then you would think: "why i didn't put the same margin of tp for sl? now i shouldn't be loosing so much."
we are headed for 1.40... your 1.38 will get hit for sure
  • #872,508
  • Jan 27, 2014 6:34pm Jan 27, 2014 6:34pm
Quoting viitrader
Hey guys, how will the US tapering effect the dollar? will it weaken it or strengthen it? If it weakens the dollar, we can expect a push up in the euro right?


All depends on market sentiment. a Few Scenario's could be these :

1 No Taper, Fed loses some credibility: Market sees it as wishy washyness Surprise no taper but big trading firms will bull the EUR/USD hard short term. Making 1,37 or even 1,38 as the new support line

2: No Taper But mild reaction. With the Shuffling of fed members. The market can use that excuse to let the eur/usd bull to max 1,38 range.


3: Taper just means eur/usd is short term bear and oh the talk of the improving USA market will crop up again.
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #872,509
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:29pm Jan 27, 2014 7:29pm
Quoting BeyondD
{quote} All depends on market sentiment. a Few Scenario's could be these : 1 No Taper, Fed loses some credibility: Market sees it as wishy washyness Surprise no taper but big trading firms will bull the EUR/USD hard short term. Making 1,37 or even 1,38 as the new support line 2: No Taper But mild reaction. With the Shuffling of fed members. The market can use that excuse to let the eur/usd bull to max 1,38 range. 3: Taper just means eur/usd is short term bear and oh the talk of the improving USA market will crop up again.
FED was pumping at 85B and last cut to 75B.

So when you say continue taper do you mean something less than 75B?

I do not think market will react any differently unless FED decides to come back to 85B. You have to realize that they did say gradually. Doesn't mean -10b each month.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #872,510
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:33pm Jan 27, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting 110101
{quote} FED was pumping at 85B and last cut to 75B. So when you say continue taper do you mean something less than 75B? I do not think market will react any differently unless FED decides to come back to 85B. You have to realize that they did say gradually. Doesn't mean -10b each month.
Goldman Sachs: Expectations For FOMC, RBNZ
The following are Goldman Sachs' expectations for this week's policy meetings of the US FOMC and New Zealand RBNZ, both scheduled on Wednesday January 29.
US FOMC: GS and consensus have Fed fund rate unchanged at 0.25% and expect further USD10bn reduction in the monthly rate of asset purchases to be announced – split equally between Treasuries and MBS, making them USD+35bn and USD+30bn, respectively. The January FOMC should be fairly uneventful, following significant policy changes made at the prior meeting. We expect no changes to the forward guidance. Although the 6.5% threshold mentioned in the statement is fast approaching, the Committee has probably already enhanced the forward guidance as much as it is willing to in the near term. A recent set of modestly negative data surprises, including most notably the December employment report, has likely not shifted the Fed’s thinking on the near-term outlook in a significant way. The Committee will also have to decide whether to extend the testing period for the fixed-rate reverse repo facility, which is currently authorized through January 29. We expect a continuation of the facility, likely coupled with a modestly more expansive authorization from the Committee with regard to testing parameters. In the future, the facility may play a key role in monetary policy implementation. However for now, the Committee will want to avoid any suggestion that it would be employed as a tool of monetary tightening in the near future.
New Zealand RBNZ: GS and consensus have policy rate unchanged at 2.50%. Nevertheless, we note that there is a non-trivial probability of a rate hike, particularly with domestic economic momentum remaining strong and headline inflation surprising on the upside.
  • #872,511
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:38pm Jan 27, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Goldman Sachs: Expectations For FOMC, RBNZ The following are Goldman Sachs' expectations for this week's policy meetings of the US FOMC and New Zealand RBNZ, both scheduled on Wednesday January 29. US FOMC: GS and consensus have Fed fund rate unchanged at 0.25% and expect further USD10bn reduction in the monthly rate of asset purchases to be announced – split equally between Treasuries and MBS, making them USD+35bn and USD+30bn, respectively. The January FOMC should be fairly uneventful, following significant policy changes made at the prior...

Remember what Ben said. FED isn't there to please the markets(investment firms, etc.). I'd be pissed too if free money was being taken away, so IMO Goldman Sacks will spin all they can if FED doesn't cut. I actually don't expect FED to cut more but who knows. I didn't really think they would begin, so. But again i truly believe that FX E/U knows where its going its in the charts so all the news could do is accelerate the move, NO we're not seeing 1.40.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #872,512
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:48pm Jan 27, 2014 7:48pm
To change direction in EU i really believe FED has to say no taper we're back at 85, and maybe more.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #872,513
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:49pm Jan 27, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting 110101
{quote} FED was pumping at 85B and last cut to 75B. So when you say continue taper do you mean something less than 75B? I do not think market will react any differently unless FED decides to come back to 85B. You have to realize that they did say gradually. Doesn't mean -10b each month.


To clarify: (wich I noticed was a bit daft to not type it out already. By taper I actually mean the reduction from 75B to a number less than that. (Like 65B)

(UP to 85B seems very baseless atm so il just leave that out of the picture)

No Taper would mean that the QE stays at 75B. That is possible with a myriad of excuses or even the standard. We will wait and see reaction to new Economic news.

( And Yes FED will taper gradually the -10B isn't guaranteed at all and you know that the best part of this is. That means that any good usd data in the next months will give enough of a ruse to imply that fed will reduce QE again. This leads to pre FOMC EUR/USD Bearing in the day or days before the quote on quote reducing of QE
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #872,514
  • Jan 27, 2014 7:56pm Jan 27, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting BeyondD
{quote} To clarify: (wich I noticed was a bit daft to not type it out already. By taper I actually mean the reduction from 75B to a number less than that. (Like 65B) (UP to 85B seems very baseless atm so il just leave that out of the picture) No Taper would mean that the QE stays at 75B. That is possible with a myriad of excuses or even the standard. We will wait and see reaction to new Economic news. ( And Yes FED will taper gradually the -10B isn't guaranteed at all and you know that the best part of this is. That means that any good usd data...

interesting.

we pretty much have the same outlook i only think that no taper is us back at 85... 75 is taper.
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #872,515
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:01pm Jan 27, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting 110101
{quote} interesting. we pretty much have the same outlook i only think that no taper is us back at 85... 75 is taper.

That's a fair outlook to have to see 85 as a non taper.
I personally I just see the 75 as: Throwing a stone into a lake and seeing how much the ripple effect is on the water. If the ripple was already too big in their eyes then the FED will tell a story of waiting until the market has properly priced in the current QE and that it will wait for more recovery news in the USA.
Past glory means nothing on the battlefield
  • #872,516
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:04pm Jan 27, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting BeyondD
{quote} That's a fair outlook to have to see 85 as a non taper. I personally I just see the 75 as: Throwing a stone into a lake and seeing how much the ripple effect is on the water. If the ripple was already too big in their eyes then the FED will tell a story of waiting until the market has properly priced in the current QE and that it will wait for more recovery news in the USA.

Again and again i find it fitting to use this cliche but time will tell. We'll adjust. No biggie
"HEY! Whats all this chocolate on yo face?" - "It's doodoo, babby!"
  • #872,517
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:17pm Jan 27, 2014 8:17pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} Goldman Sachs: Expectations For FOMC, RBNZ The following are Goldman Sachs' expectations for this week's policy meetings of the US FOMC and New Zealand RBNZ, both scheduled on Wednesday January 29. US FOMC: GS and consensus have Fed fund rate unchanged at 0.25% and expect further USD10bn reduction in the monthly rate of asset purchases to be announced – split equally between Treasuries and MBS, making them USD+35bn and USD+30bn, respectively. The January FOMC should be fairly uneventful, following significant policy changes made at the prior...

thank you for bringing this here.
  • #872,518
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:22pm Jan 27, 2014 8:22pm
ho ho ho.. what an ugly mess..
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #872,519
  • Jan 27, 2014 8:35pm Jan 27, 2014 8:35pm
What the Fed says and what they actually do is two different things. Just because Helicopter Ben is gone, doesn't mean Yellen is any different. They'll tell everybody they're tapering, but it's an open secret that there is no way in hell they can ever stop QE. The US Economy is on life support and tapering would be like switching off the machine. If anything, they'll crank up the easy money.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/28/bu...?rref=business

Don't believe the horse-and-pony show. Meanwhile, we should trade what we see on the charts.
  • #872,520
  • Jan 27, 2014 9:40pm Jan 27, 2014 9:40pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} I feed aussie viagra, not dope.
ok… that is why your account is always down……I understand now...
Wherever you go, there you are.
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