Trading Made Simple

Something to think about and keep in mind is that most of the time from london open the firsts couple of hour candles either set the hi or low of the day!!!

With the close of LO candle we now have a 3-bar bearish pattern on EURJPY H1

EJ H1 27 Jan LO:

as usual the Tokyo close hour and London Open is tricky.
We often see price pull back due to trade exits.
The next hours will determine the London high for today

compare this H1 and the one seen in H4.

Currently working on a potential pinbar at my H4-hours. H4 will be closed in 30 min.

The candles you have circled, do you notice anything?

What do you think about it?

What I see for the H4 candle/APB is mixed:
- this candle is fighting against resistance (prev. weeks low) and the monthly S1
- it is a blue APB and a still a bullish "normal" candle
- the candle stopped at the weekly pivot point
- didn't reach the 50% retracement from the previous swing high

Do you see additional things?

EDIT:
- the low of the H4 candle and the low of the 3-bar bearish pattern on H1 are the same

It even simpler than that, have a look at the bottom of the APB's!!

Perhaps I do not see the forest because of the many trees ... (german adage)
?!?

EDIT: Do you mean the easy thing that they look strong bullish because of no lower wicks?

Excatly

Nunrgguy,

That´s a nice shot. My brocker only close next 4H candle in 1H. It looks prety mutch the same as yours... Wainting to go long to in 53 min.

Got stopped out. Made some pips, but i was about + 40 pips today . What did i wrong. How would you do it ?

GU H1 27 Jan

second Inside Bar breakout for today.

Exit Management ????

I don't trade on closed candles. The markets are not digital, they are fluid. See my previous post about the other guys short based on a closed candle. TDI is a momentum indicator, not post momentum. If you are seeing momentum apparent on a higher TF smashing through lower TF s/d levels, take the trade. It may pull back and often does but the point of a single candle close is purely a random price level and means nothing, usually getting you in at a terrible price and if you are wrong you'll take a full loss rather than being able to get out at b/e. If you're entering based on what happened 4 hours ago you can wave bye bye to your account, because all you'll be trading essentially is an MA cross and it's a gamble pure and simple as to whether the HAs will continue in a trend. Don't worry about the re-paint and a cross re-crossing and turning into a bounce - that's why I have always said do not just rely on the TDI, you need to look at near-to s/d zones, momentum breakouts and trader sentiment. TDI and HAs are just a heads up and will help you with direction.

As an example - with this trade you're going to enter on the close of H4 with a damn great stop, right at the point where I'm thinking of closing. Look at the H1 chart - how many hours has it been running up? Where is the TDI on H1, even if you only use the indis, don't you think it's likely to run the other way for a good while now?

Edit - in fact I've closed - good chance it's going to retrace to around 6530. Re-read Big Ees posts right at the start - he only let the thing retrace 5 pips, yes! 5 freakin pips when trading H1. What's 5 pips against ATR on hourly range? Now extrapolate that to H4. How/why did he do that - I'll tell you how - H1 was his heads up but it sure wasn't the only basis for what he was doing and he certainly wasn't getting in on the close of an outside bar. This isn't a trend following method, it's momentum trading.

Now I'm out I have options - I can call it a day with 30 pips, I can reopen on the retrace with the same size and my stop further away and then try to ride it out, if I'm wrong I'll get out with a very small loss, or I can resize with my stop where it originally was, and hit a home run if I'm right or lose no more than I would have initially if wrong. Whereas I'm guessing you might be sat there dealing with a 40 pip drawdown wondering why it's not working. Of course I could be wrong, and often am but the markets tend to not trend more than they tend to trend, and I've still got 30 in the bag, even if I don't manage to get back in. But these are just thoughts/ideas - I'm no better at predicting the future than the next man, and I try not to, I just trade what's happening right now.

Why has price stopped moving I wonder??

Retrace to??
Really?
Why?
Where have those stops been moved to break-even after the breakout?
Where is the liquidity?

Do you think these two circled area look similar?

Divergence?

I've just missed the retrace on this but...makes you think doesn't it?


Re-entered long on GU but with another option - much smaller position size, reason - retrace wasn't as large as I expected, H1 is overextended and I'm not sure if the move has much more legs in it so it's a trend following on H4 gamble, hence position very small. Worst that can happen if it comes all the way back and hits my stop is I finish the day at break even.

GU H1 27 Jan pre-NYO

another IB breakout? maybe or maybe not.