Sonic R. System

AN Long Trade Update:

Since the last post I have added long #11, and I lost one today due to Margin stress, -153 pips lost. However, I added back the lost trade at 5 pips advantage. So, the trade remains now with 11 parts.

AU Long Trade Update:

Since the last post on this longer running AU trade, I've added longs #6-19, mostly Scouts.

GU
TP set.
Waiting for price to hit it

Great Your entry and TP.

Hi TAH, I sent you a PM.

Can someone help?
How to display 15min. SonicR filled Dragon indicator on 30 min. chart?
Thanks
Andy

I've thought of this idea too. Like you said, it's cumbersome and such an inconvenience. I'm with you, never got past the thinking stage. I'm so sick of this 1:50 leverage and FIFO rules crap.

AUD/USD

Price above dragon....time will tell to see what happens.

Have a good weekend all Sonicers!

NU Short Trade Open and Closed:

Entered shorts #1-2, Scouts, in and out trades not expecting much. Manually closed for 46.6 pips gain.

M15 Dragon-Trend Transfers to Other TF Charts

That feature is not included with the SonicR Filled Dragon-Trend indicator. It is in one of the older released SonicR Line Dragon-Trend indicators. I have no plans to include it in future releases because, frankly, it is a waste of time. It does nothing to improve the application of the Sonic R. System, and can actually interfere with the proper application of the Sonic R. System. I am talking from experience about this. Unless something actually helps substantially, it should not become a part of your methodology or your charts. Keeping things simple is always best.

I have made many posts showing transferred configurations, mostly to help with "reviewing" situations that are no longer captured in the span of an M15 chart. As for using it to better spot a trade situation, .....nope. I am not convinced that really helps, and I am convinced it can hurt.

Showing M15 Dragon-Trend on M30 would seem to provide a benefit because you can look at M30 bars, thinking they filter out some "noise" and still have the M15 Dragon-Trend setups displayed for you. But, in real life trading, not seeing that the M30 Dragon-Trend is not yet ready, and entering on a M15 Dragon-Trend that is displayed on M30 can, and will, cost you. If you want to use M30, fine. And just wait for the M30 chart Dragon-Trend to be what they should be. That is even being a bit more picky, and in the end, a bit more profitable too.

I appreciate your response. It's very informative. Thanks

Sorry to bother you TAH for off-topic question, maybe if you don't mind to tell me the name of this indicator, and I will search it in thread files. thanks in advance.

About Classics, i can see Jrissas one of favourites are these kind of setups. For me these look 5 min chart perfect. But if using classic 15 min, just two or three bar not make wave. This kind of setup happend very often. But its not make lh situations, what usually wave height have to be.
its very common short side. but usually for longs after daily low, have to wait perfect wave formations. i took this.
What you think ?
GU 15 min.

USDCAD Comment: MM Bears are Bullshitting Longs!

My Fellow Sonicers,

This is certainly not one of the highest traded pairs. It can have a higher spread and a lower range, and often not do much of anything. However, there are signs that a this might come soon to yield a very good short trade that could run more inter-day than intra-day, for some really nice pips.

Look at the DAY chart and see the previous four days of rising price. Note the rising "volume", too! That is practically exponentially rising volume that was invested in a climb that did not even make 250 pips and ended with a very bearish pin bar. All this suggests that the entire episode was a "put up" job by the MMs to pump the price while dumping their cargoes of long orders. And done rather quickly and for exceptionally nice profits, I might add. I wonder who was left "holding the bag"? The last bar shows some more interesting clues, if we drop down to a lower TF. I don't like to use H4 because it can be so radically different borker to broker due to their servers being based on different time zones. So, lets look at the H1 chart.

Looking at the H1 chart, I bet it doesn't take long for your eyes to gravitate to all those tall upper wick candles! But first, look at the preceding candle. It is a "slam dunker" down thru the whole number area. This is a typical move to help thwart frustrated shorters just below the whole number from quickly buying to close their short trades as soon as the errant price comes back to them. By ramming the price quickly down thru the area, many might not have time to close their shorts and others might hold off doing so. And this means the MMs avoid what could have been a strong block of "buyers" interfering with their drive south. Once well south of the whole number, as the day progressed, the MMs supported the price within the range, but here is where we see all those lovely upper wicks. They are the tell-tale sign that while the MMs were working the price up and down (something they always do to suck in wrong side traders) they were focused on accumulating short orders at the highest prices possible, but also wanting to keep the price "base" from rising. Why? Obviously, it was done to suck in longs by keeping the "base" low, giving longs time to develop confidence to make their trades, while the MMs greedily, eagerly took the short side of longs anytime buying pushed up prices. Note the highest volume is associated with the highest wick. And note that the highest wick returned price above a whole number. That is a PVSRA indication the MMs are bears! Afterwards, the MMs would quickly return the price towards the base to keep longs confident that the MMs too, were building long. Big mistake, longs!

So, the overall picture is one of bearish MMs. This is not to say that next week the MMs will calmly and nicely start a good move south. No, more likely they will swing prices every which way but due south, as they continue the conversion to bully bears. They might need a lot more longs to come to the slaughterhouse while the MMs continue to accumulate short orders in advance of a bear run for profits.

We can never know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse. This situation seems to suggest a reversal from up to down is in the works. So, it could be most profitable to be stalking this for a well qualified Sonic R. Classic short setup. Should such a one occur and entry is made, do not be surprised if there are set backs in the PA, because this is just another way the bastard MMs accumulate short orders. They give traders what they know the traders are looking for (a nice short setup) and then whisk the price against them to stop them out. This is an excellent way for the MMs to accumulate more short orders at higher prices, and at your expense!

All-in-all, with patience for a good entry (a setup following an upwards retrace, i.e.,setups at higher rather than lower prices) and with good money management and perseverance to deal with the bastard MMs whipping prices after you have entered, this could become a very profitable pair to short trade.

-tah

Kekkis,

I have a problem with your pic. You need to show the whole chart! How many times do I have to say it? Also, did you enter long or short? Where is your entry, because I cannot see it because it is not clearly marked!

Really, if you are seeking help from other Sonicers, then do he decent thing to help those Sonicers help you. And the decent thing is to post the entire chart with everything you have questions on clearly marked on the chart: EP, TP, SL (if any), etc. Go back and edit your post to remove this crappy excuse for a chart and put up an entire chart clearly annotated. Ok?

-tah

Excellent analysis TAH, I have been in this pair shorting for a little while now, its definitely been a learning experience for me as to how far the MM's can really take price. Although that being said, I definitely remain firm on my bearish outlook, if it had changed I would have exited the trade. Given such obvious activities by them on this pair I'm anticipating that nice bear run for profits as well. The lessons learnt by me is that, if something looks good, patience can really pay off if you let it. Hope everyone has a great weekend, looking forward to seeing what those bastard MM's bring us next week

I can tell you that the price labels with the dashed lines leading to where price is and the label with PL haven't been released yet.
As for the AV and TP lines you pointed out, you will already have this indicator if you installed the templates. If you go into:
Charts --> Indicators List --> Trade Levels you will find it there

EU Comment: MM Bears Here Also

My Fellow Sonicers,

This is the most highly traded pair in the forex market. This is usually our bread n' butter pair, when movement is not being restricted (as when it starts to drop) and when movement is not being too highly manipulated (as when MMs are pushing it back up). which as been a lot of the time lately.

This pair might come back into popularity though, because it appears that in spite of the inexplicable (unless you subscribe to conspiracy theories) support it has received for a very long time now, it may start to weaken. Oh, not just in the sense that it could move downwards, but also in the sense that the inexplicable support might inexplicably dissipate. Anyway, there does seem to be bearish indications creeping in.

On the DAY chart we can see that the 1.3800 area is the area of a bearish Double Top, a ragged one but that only leads to another bearish clue, which is that spike above the area that went for almost another 100 pips. That spike could be the "spring" in a "Distribution Phase". Personally, I don't like using "Distribution" any more than I like using "Supply and Demand". The market is all about liquidity, liquidity for accumulation either long orders or short orders. "Distribution" is just Accumulation of short orders. There is no distributing. There is accumulating, but of short orders instead of long orders. Similarly it goes with "supply and demand". It is all just "supply". "Supply" at tops is the supply of short orders. "Demand" at lows is the supply of long orders. Anyway, back to this "spring". It is a signal that the Accumulation of short orders is progressing nicely and what will eventually follow is the end of the Accumulation of short orders phase as a bear run for profits gets underway. We can also see there is a declining channel, also bearish and with a second Head Fake up thru it (the "Spring" being the first Head Fake). Note also the volume associated with the last two days. It might show differently with different brokers, but my guess is they pretty much will all be showing the last two days were days of higher activity. Note also the extent of the push on Thursday versus the ranging on Friday, those two days of higher activity. There can be no doubt that the MMs focus on Thursday was to push the price up to higher ground for accumulating short orders. On Friday, after totally buggering the longs on that Head Fake, they simply ranged the price to continue to sucker in wrong side traders while they went about the business of continuing to accumulate short orders. This is all very bearish, indeed.

If we move down to the H1 chart now, we can clearly see in more detail that Head Fake up through the channel TL and back down again. These are the two highest activity hours of the entire day! The MMs were obviously closing longs/opening shorts at great prices for doing so, and suckered longs provided the liquidity to make it happen. It is interesting that following the spike up the price sort of ranged, but with lower wicks being the most notable. If the MMs are bears accumulating shorts (and the are, that spike was up thru a whole number, a PVSRA indication the MMs are indeed bears), then why are not the notable wicks the upper wicks? In this case, and it is only what I can surmise by looking at the PA, the MMs were overtly concerned about the price dropping prematurely. They supported the price at higher and higher levels as their short accumulation activity waned and it did not hurt this activity to keep the lower prices on the upswing. This gave the PA the appearance of enduring bullishness, which I suppose was intended in order to continue to sucker longs. There is surmising here, but lets face it, this was a day where the MMs butchered longs, leaving folks other than themselves holding the bag.

So, as with my USDCAD analysis, this seems bearish and at a uniquely high place to be bearish. With patience, common sense, and good money management, as discussed in that other analysis, this could be the source for very nice short trading.

-tah

Check this out (by Kathy Lien, of BK Asset Management):
Meanwhile the Australian dollar dropped to a fresh 3 year low against the greenback after Reserve Bank of Australia Board Member Heather Ridout said "AUD/USD around 0.80 would be a fair deal for everybody." It is clear that even after the 4.5% slide since December 1st, the central bank wants to see a weaker currency. Ridout's comment is even more dovish than RBA Governor Glenn Stevens who said last month that he preferred to see the currency near 85 cents. Either way, both policymakers seem to support another 2 to 3 cent move lower in AUD