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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #42,001
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:36pm Jan 23, 2014 6:36pm
Of course. I didnt state it was anything more than what it was. i for one enjoyed it.
  • #42,002
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:01pm Jan 23, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting Rizmeister
That was an awesome ride down everyone survive?
heh, definitely questioned my system a few times especially around 102.9x. but the risk to reward is just so compelling when you get the chance to sit on very cheap entries at the over extension in this kind of consolidation pattern.
my only regret is pulling the trigger too early and a few too many times. by the time we hit the 103 round figure i had no more allocation to add to my longs for this pair, and i wasn't willing to take off risk from my index positions...best price i got was 103.15....now i just have to sit on my hands until we move higher.

saw some "smarter" guys loaded on at a great price at 103.20...trading a R/R gamble at the ichimoku daily cloud. i don't trade ichimoku personally, but this last rejection has got me wondering about how many yen traders still use it...
  • #42,003
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:26pm Jan 23, 2014 7:26pm
People are still buying this even after that massacre? Abenomics is stale news and so is the taper. I'm short and I fully expect to make money. If not tonight, then certainly on Sunday-Monday. My position is much larger than usual.
  • #42,004
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:27pm Jan 23, 2014 7:27pm
New Positions:

SLD 1 MAR14 Futures 0.009660

Existing Positions:

SLD 2 MAR07 0.0102 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000190
SLD 2 MAR07 0.0093 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000210
SLD 2 FEB07 0.0092 Put Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000190
SLD 2 FEB07 0.0101 Call Fut. Option (6J) 0.0000200
SLD 1 JAN24 0.00965 Put Fut. Option (6J4) 0.0000770

Position Summary:

My existing position in both the FEB07 and MAR07 series remain untouched.

The pullback overnight due to the Chinese risk-off scenario has taken my JAN24 PUT option, set to expire tomorrow afternoon OTM. However, with price relatively close to being ATM I have decided to sell the underlying future to hedge the position should it regain ITM status. The option price sets that at being approximately 39%, though in reality it’s probably 50/50 and I can live with those probabilities. It’s also only one contract which does not leave me terribly exposed even in worst-case scenarios.
  • #42,005
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:30pm Jan 23, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} ....now i just have to sit on my hands until we move higher.
Be careful with that.

"Yen Set for Biggest Weekly Gain Since September on Haven Demand"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...en-demand.html

Maybe more to come. Time will tell
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,006
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:36pm Jan 23, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Be careful with that. "Yen Set for Biggest Weekly Gain Since September on Haven Demand" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...en-demand.html Maybe more to come. Time will tell
Thanks...though I do like to fade the news...all I need now is for Goldman to recommend a sell and I'll feel golden.
Notice how they said we are going to 106 a couple weeks ago. I bet they shorted the pair and just bought back the major dips.
  • #42,007
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:47pm Jan 23, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} all I need now is for Goldman to recommend a sell and I'll feel golden. Notice how they said we are going to 106 a couple weeks ago. I bet they shorted the pair and just bought back the major dips.
You don't need Goldman and you're better off not to pay attention to them(IMHO).
However, this weekly chart (among other things) could suggest a move lower.
If that divergence plays out there would need to be a close below below the monthly
S1 pivot @ 102.80 though. Only my opinion, of course.
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When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,008
  • Jan 23, 2014 7:57pm Jan 23, 2014 7:57pm
Some possible scenarios...

Is it time to get Long?

Ride the Swing North?
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  • #42,009
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:04pm Jan 23, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting todstars2
Some possible scenarios... Is it time to get Long? Ride the Swing North? {image}
What are the possible scenarios ? Only long?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,010
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:14pm Jan 23, 2014 8:14pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} What are the possible scenarios ? Only long?

Remember the struggle to find BUYERS above 104.60 set on 1/15?

Watch 104.65 Opening set on 1/22 very carefully for a possible turn back down.
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  • #42,011
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:32pm Jan 23, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting todstars2
{quote} Watch 104.65 {image}
You might be right but I would be a bit surprised to see it @ 104.65
in the near term.
104 is great resistance ?

But you should probably pay less attention to me than to Goldman
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42,012
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:10pm Jan 23, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting todstars2
{quote} Remember the struggle to find BUYERS above 104.60 set on 1/15? Watch 104.65 Opening set on 1/22 very carefully for a possible turn back down. {image}

Your chart is offensive.

Learn to draw a straight line.

Do you know what breakout means?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #42,013
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:32pm Jan 23, 2014 9:32pm
Umm, his TL may be correct. Whilst a breach of the 102.8 level is a confirmation, this has the appearance of a diamond shaped reversal that can only be seen clearly on daily charts. If so, it has already broken out at 103.5 and is continuing to retest the lower (diagonal) line.

So, without picking a fight, I think you're both right.

Very rough rule of thumb has pattern height (250 pips) applied to break out (103.5) = destination

But, yes, it needs to break 102.8. Until then, it's potentially a bullish consolidation.
  • #42,014
  • Jan 23, 2014 9:50pm Jan 23, 2014 9:50pm
Quoting Mpt
Umm, his TL may be correct. Whilst a breach of the 102.8 level is a confirmation, this has the appearance of a diamond shaped reversal that can only be seen clearly on daily charts. If so, it has already broken out at 103.5 and is continuing to retest the lower (diagonal) line. So, without picking a fight, I think you're both right. Very rough rule of thumb has pattern height (250 pips) applied to break out (103.5) = destination But, yes, it needs to break 102.8. Until then, it's potentially a bullish consolidation.

Do either of you know what a trend line is?

It isn't to show support nor resistance, it is an actual line that identifies trend.

Do you seriously think that the market as a whole, draws a trendline and bounces price off of it?

Look at the ACTUAL trendline.

That bitch has been broken...

But yet, where sellers are convinced that market shouldn't exceed 1.05, buyers are snapping up anything that comes close to 1.03.

This isn't a fight.

This could be an awakening...

Your choice.

Which actually seems logical?

Price being defended, or somebody else randomly trying to draw a corrective line?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #42,015
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:04pm Jan 23, 2014 11:04pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Do either of you know what a trend line is? It isn't to show support nor resistance, it is an actual line that identifies trend. Do you seriously think that the market as a whole, draws a trendline and bounces price off of it? Look at the ACTUAL trendline. That bitch has been broken... But yet, where sellers are convinced that market shouldn't exceed 1.05, buyers are snapping up anything that comes close to 1.03. This isn't a fight. This could be an awakening... Your choice. Which actually seems logical? Price being defended, or somebody...

Do you know the meaning of the word PRICK?

In English?

Now that I'm done with that.
  • #42,016
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:11pm Jan 23, 2014 11:11pm
The selling has begun again?
  • #42,017
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:14pm Jan 23, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting todstars2
{quote} Do you know the meaning of the word PRICK? In English? Now that I'm done with that.

Awwwwwwwwww, Peaches...

Are you feeling a little bit delicate?

So, really...

I'm a prick because you have no conceptual idea of what a trendline is?

or

I'm a prick because I've told you that you don't know what a trendline is?

Either way...

You're still wrong. And your chart is still offensive.

Learn a little about market and when you get all big n strong n stuff...then, come back and be all tough n shit.

Throwing profanity out, doesn't make you any better of a person. Don't make you any better at your game. Just means that you are defending your bullshit logic by name calling.

This is as much logic as you drawing another thousand trendlines thinking that one of them will be more correct than the last one.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #42,018
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:20pm Jan 23, 2014 11:20pm
In response to our rude friend...

Outliers, or price extremes, long tails do not matter in some peoples estimations.

To others they do.

Dow theory, only considers closing price

All are a matter of personal choice and the practitioners "artistry" if you will.

Using opening and closing prices is my personal preferred method, but I do not commit.

When something else may work its worth looking at.

For your perusal...Is it time to go long or short?


Keep in mind, we are far extended from the Breakout. and honestly it isn't even an official Bull Trend yet.

Symmetrical Triangle Formation

The Coil.

Looks to have a slight downward tilt to it.

What do you see?



Flip a coin?
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  • #42,019
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:21pm Jan 23, 2014 11:21pm
Quoting mm2mm
The selling has begun again?

I love the panic. In and out for some quick money.
  • #42,020
  • Jan 23, 2014 11:22pm Jan 23, 2014 11:22pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Awwwwwwwwww, Peaches... Are you feeling a little bit delicate? So, really... I'm a prick because you have no conceptual idea of what a trendline is? or I'm a prick because I've told you that you don't know what a trendline is? Either way... You're still wrong. And your chart is still offensive. Learn a little about market and when you get all big n strong n stuff...then, come back and be all tough n shit. Throwing profanity out, doesn't make you any better of a person. Don't make you any better at your game. Just means that you are defending...

Muah!
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