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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,921
  • Jan 22, 2014 6:56pm Jan 22, 2014 6:56pm
bought usdjpy at 104 yesterday based on jpy monetary policy, I'm making 70 pips at the moment, I'm tempted to close although I do have the feeling this might break 105, then again, that might just be wishful thinking! what do you guys think
  • #41,922
  • Jan 22, 2014 6:58pm Jan 22, 2014 6:58pm
powerless??? 104.8 bulls got tired? im too scared to play
  • #41,923
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:44pm Jan 22, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting Torrent
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but why did the yen pairs all drop if policy is unchanged?
that's the big question and i wish i had an answer for ya. i am wondering the same thing.

the MPS last night f*ed up my trading, as i didn't even know there was an announcement lol... i was long the market, but completely not expecting such a big drop, so of course it was probably more like a shakeout to wipe out all the not-so-certain longs... like me. and, of course, it worked.

i still think U/J is on pace to break 105 soon, though.

here is my first TRADE of today/tonight. go figure i missed the big move again today because i was at work.

ugh!!!

i'm pretty exhaused so this may be my only post tonight. good luck, and may the force(s) be with you! :nerd:
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  • #41,924
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:49pm Jan 22, 2014 7:49pm
scratch my previous post. shorts win... again.

dammit, i hate trying to make up for previous/lost trades by forcing a newer/different one! do any of you do that? it is THE WORST!

i guess i am too tired and impatient to be trading right now, because my entry was off by ~10 pips.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #41,925
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:52pm Jan 22, 2014 7:52pm
Quoting smash1820
scratch my previous post. shorts win... again. dammit, i hate trying to make up for previous/lost trades by forcing a newer/different one! i guess i am too tired and impatient to be trading right now
you don't trade news right?
  • #41,926
  • Edited 8:16pm Jan 22, 2014 7:58pm | Edited 8:16pm
Quoting pipBlast
you don't trade news right?
correct. i avoid it as much as i can because all it does is confuse you! knee-jerk reaction... then knee-jerk reaction in the opposite direction... tells me that most traders have NO CLUE how to interpret news announcements and that distorts the market ever-so-slightly.

so who the hell knows what to think? it's better just to stay objective, use discretion (ie: pick your entry... according to whatever rules/system you have), and trade what you see on the charts.

there are only a few "fundamentals" or "announcements" that are worth paying attention to and usually MPS (monetary policy statements) is one of them. i just didn't know it was scheduled for last night!

but i think the reason the market moves a lot during MPS is because the expectations for it are so high... even if the policy itself does not change.

i usually like to wait 10-30 min. before AND after any MAJOR announcement to give it time to react but this requires a certain "feel" like most things in trading.

occasionally, i will hold trades THROUGH news announcements (like i tried to do last night), but only if i think the announcement will act as a "trigger" to get the trade moving in my direction.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #41,927
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:21pm Jan 22, 2014 8:21pm
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} we finally reached the upside block at 104.6X. look to fill in longs for any retrace that finds base in 104.2x. will probably scale out of longs at 104.8x - 104.9x if we break up.
scaled out at 104.8x

looks best to stay liquid until 104.2x to add in longs again.

current market structure looks the same at these levels, pa continues to confirm heavy consolidation between 104.20 - 104.60.

best entry for longs will be 103.7x if we can get there. net long position s/l good region is 103.50 before having to re-evaluate short term long bias on this pair.
  • #41,928
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:27pm Jan 22, 2014 8:27pm
Probably be a nice little feeding frenzy when Europe and NY opens.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,929
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:29pm Jan 22, 2014 8:29pm
Looking for support at 104.13 if that doesnt hold then 103.74.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,930
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:39pm Jan 22, 2014 8:39pm
could someone shed light on the relationship between China manufacturing and the Yen?

figured yen strength was from AUD/JPY shorts (AUD relationship w/ China is pretty straightforward)
  • #41,931
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:43pm Jan 22, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting neuron
could someone shed light on the relationship between China manufacturing and the Yen? figured yen strength was from AUD/JPY shorts (AUD relationship w/ China is pretty straightforward)
If China's economy keeps on slowing its a risk globally. UJ is highly correlated to the Nikkei which dropped right around 135 points on the news.

Are you ignorant or did you earn that top 5% diamond on some bs thread you started?
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,932
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:52pm Jan 22, 2014 8:52pm
I should also say dollar weakened and Yen strengthened on the news. Just simple rotation out of risky assets to safe havens.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,933
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:53pm Jan 22, 2014 8:53pm
Quoting neuron
could someone shed light on the relationship between China manufacturing and the Yen?
yes... there is none, imho

trade what you see, not what you know

remember that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #41,934
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:55pm Jan 22, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} If China's economy keeps on slowing its a risk globally. UJ is highly correlated to the Nikkei which dropped right around 135 points on the news. Are you ignorant or did you earn that top 5% diamond on some bs thread you started?
i guess i must be ignorant
  • #41,935
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:57pm Jan 22, 2014 8:57pm
While you two are busy playing buddy buddy and only paying attention to the charts I'll stay busy MAKING MONEY. A one trick pony only succeeds when the one thing they know how to do well pays off.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,936
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:04pm Jan 22, 2014 9:04pm
cool story bro
  • #41,937
  • Edited 9:21pm Jan 22, 2014 9:05pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting neuron
cool story bro
It truly is.

You could just put your money where your mouth is and we can come back tomorrow morning and post our P&L.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,938
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:28pm Jan 22, 2014 9:28pm
*Crickets*
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #41,939
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:45pm Jan 22, 2014 9:45pm
why don't you study this chart and tell me what's going to happen???

which red line will break first?

because even i don't know (although i have my suspicions).
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  • #41,940
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:45pm Jan 22, 2014 9:45pm
lol not sure why you're so riled up or where the hostility is from
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