{quote} 3 possible targets as I see them and the ones Iīm looking at right now. Green lines. Regards, H. {image}
How to calculate it sir ?
Internet is sharing
- #64,402
- Jan 22, 2014 11:07am Jan 22, 2014 11:07am
{quote} I was in the same situation when I started with PVSRA about 9 months ago. But now I know that it is very important to keep the things simple! We can think a lot of theories and lot of thoughts in our mind but why we have to do this? We don't need it, just follow the signs and you will be ok
And to the buddy Cftdaleong., I Can explain it by VSA...
The box 1 wen the PA came down there was a high vol n after tht price went back up and wen it came down again in box 2 the there was lesser vol compared to box 1.. This can be called as Testing: Lack of Supply at the bottoms.. Loeil also explained the same thing in his chart...
- #64,403
- Jan 22, 2014 11:35am Jan 22, 2014 11:35am
{quote} oh no, i'm selling now
Good luck - you are selling into resistance turned support. I donīt think your short will go much further.
H
"The future is already written in the past"
- #64,407
- Jan 22, 2014 3:25pm Jan 22, 2014 3:25pm
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trading Chaos | 1,133 Posts
CAD/JPY Long Scout
..More to come I think
..More to come I think
- #64,408
- Edited 4:15pm Jan 22, 2014 3:56pm | Edited 4:15pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
{quote} GJ short Trade Update: Added shorts #16-17 (#17 just made), Scouts. One JPY high impact release made, the next in just under 1.5 hours. I am waiting to see if the MMs pop the price thru the upper whole number, maybe thru MR1. And then, there is also the ever possible whipsaw for an even greater temporary extension of price (My God! RDH is another whole number above! Could it happen? Yes, indeed. Especially if the MMs can suck in lots of new shorters they can stop out with such a move.).{image} Edit: Added shorts #18-19. The MMs hiked the price thru both the whole number SR area and MR1, so I have added two more Scouts. Now waiting to see if they make the half number SR area. If not before the JPY release (less than an hour away now) there is always the possibility of a whipsaw up there, maybe even higher to the upper whole number. The MMs can get very vicious when greedy, and if a lot of new shorters have come to the party, the MMs might be assessing right now how much of the those positions they can stop out.{image}
In my last post on this (my trade update) I said,....
"And then, there is also the ever possible whipsaw for an even greater temporary extension of price (My God! RDH is another whole number above! Could it happen? Yes, indeed. Especially if the MMs can suck in lots of new shorters they can stop out with such a move.).
""The MMs can get very vicious when greedy, and if a lot of new shorters have come to the party, the MMs might be assessing right now how much of the those positions they can stop out."
As you can see, that is exactly what happened. Now, in retrospect, we can see that the Market Makers were keeping tabs on the growing influx of shorters and how much of their positions could be decapitated (SLs within reasonable range for a whip). They were simultaneously preparing for the whip. This entailed them accumulating the long and the short orders they'd need to neutralize every damn level up to the top of the planned whip. Once they were well prepared, at the time of their choosing they put the whip into the computers and the rest is history.
The "market" clearly demonstrated a lesson we should all take to heart. That lesson is this. At any time, at the choosing of the bastard Market Makers (MMs), the price can sail off in either direction (or both; whipsawing), at the control of the Market Makers and for the purpose of Market Maker profits; immediate profits and/or future profits based on their longer range scheming. How can we "use" this knowledge? We can use it by always trading, if we are position building, with reservation sufficient such that our trades can withstand 100-200 pip whips without causing MARGIN STRESS. We can also use it by understanding now why price derivative indicators fail when you need them most, and as such we should learn to trade without them. Successful trading must embody a knowledge of how the markets work, meaning how the Market Makers work, because their workings to fill orders of big banks and to make personal trades on the price manipulations they engage in to get prices where they need to be in order to fill those large orders, is really what the market is all about. The rest of the market: retail traders, other businesses converting currencies, etc., is all a side show. There never was, there is not, and there never will be any indicator, or combination of indicators sufficient to master the scheming of the MMs. Period. Big moves happen, but they sometimes are a long time in the making and with such whips as we see on GJ today as being part of the MMs scheming. We can trade very short term for very few pips as our normal fashion (accepting longer runs when blessed) or we can build positions for larger moves. That is our decision, but when we opt to build positions we need to remember this lesson.
- #64,409
- Edited 5:10pm Jan 22, 2014 4:52pm | Edited 5:10pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
{quote} Can you explain your shorts? There was nice clue for longs..You always wait a high volume even ultra high volume and there was a high volume, don't understand why it wasn't important this time? Just curious because your trades are always very accurate
First off, indeed your bull call was correct. The problem I have with it is that preceding clues did point to Bear, and this is possibly also what Sonic saw.
Look at the first yellow area I marked. This includes the tall bull candle up on one of the highest local volume bars. The next bar is the clue. It has a small spread but almost the same very high volume as the "push up" candle has. This sort of sequence happens again, later (also marked in yellow). I also marked a different span of volume in the volume window. It shows increasing volume as price when up, lower volumes as the liquidity at the highs was getting exhausted, and increasing volume as the short selling continued, but necessitating accepting lower prices because the liquidity at the highs was exhausted. All this created a bearish picture. Different brokers show different volumes, but I think the analysis of these areas will still hold up.
Yes, the MMs later pushed the price up. However, I think that indeed the picture was properly bearish. Now, if the hike is followed by torpedoing, we will know that the hike was premeditated by the MMs while they were accumulating shorts as a scheme to stop out the shorts of others and use that liquidity to get even more shorts for themselves, at "Premium prices", too, I might add.
On a larger scale (H4 below), the push up does nothing to create a bullish tone. In fact, by pushing the price up to where it is, the stage is now even better set for a bear move. And with that move up undoubtedly hitting the stops on a lot of short positions, the Market Makers are even more set to make profits on a bear run.
Time will tell. And you are to be congratulated, loeil, on seeing what we failed to see.
- #64,411
- Jan 22, 2014 6:58pm Jan 22, 2014 6:58pm
My view on EU There is still no high activity volume when the price at the bottom, so I will keep bearish on EU. I see only accumulation for more shorts. Keep patience and discipline. {image}
- #64,413
- Jan 22, 2014 7:50pm Jan 22, 2014 7:50pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,414
- Jan 22, 2014 7:57pm Jan 22, 2014 7:57pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,415
- Jan 22, 2014 8:10pm Jan 22, 2014 8:10pm
AU D1 Spring? I doubt it. {image} AU H1 Still boxing in yellow box. {image} Need more confirmation to change my bias to long. In an hour there is AU High Impact News. Wait and see.
- #64,418
- Edited 9:49pm Jan 22, 2014 9:20pm | Edited 9:49pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #64,420
- Jan 22, 2014 9:54pm Jan 22, 2014 9:54pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
