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  • #29,661
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:24am Jan 22, 2014 8:24am
Quoting fhm
Entered e/u on second candle since the TDI changed mid way through the first (didn't set an alert for price change). I think it's a bit on the risky side since price is hovering at week's resistance. PA seemed to be picking up momentum + TDI entry so I figured it was worth a shot. What do you guys think? {image}
Not a great idea since you're buying into resistance, see the channel? Also your risk/reward ratio is not good. If that trade continues north, it's highly likely your max profit could be 30 pips, while your initial stop loss could be up to 40 pips (depending on trader). I actually scalped this trade for 20pips, entry on M15 and hard TP taken out right where you entered (channel trade).

By the way, the candles do show momentum, however keep in mind it's very probable that the momentum lasts for 3 candles only, just so it tests a previous S/R. It happens more often than you'd think.
  • #29,662
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:37am Jan 22, 2014 8:37am
Quoting emmanuel7788
There is another intraday H1 entry technique from the good old days of X-Man S3 EU H1. It is called the Prev D Fib 127% failure reversal. Anyone know this one?
I do not know know it, but may deduce it from your chart above.

Previous day was a "small" bullish candle -> drawing the 127% fibo-level to the top for today.
On the chart we can see, that in the asian session this level could not been reached (failure) and nearly there a reversal / retracement started to the downside.
fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #29,663
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:39am Jan 22, 2014 8:39am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} It was very choppy in H1 the whole of yesterday, price swing around the Prev W high. With a shallow retraccemt, one would be prepare for a continuation of the Prev W with target 127%. The only clear intraday support of Mnday High around 171.50 and that provided support for an intraday entry. Also a nice PCRF with IB breakout. Right now with NYO, no point chasing this. Wait for tomorrow retracement entry in H1.
Yes I am thinking along the same lines. Wait for the entry on lower time frame.

Be a sniper not a machine gunner! lol


irishtoffy
  • #29,664
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:39am Jan 22, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Lane
{quote} Not a great idea since you're buying into resistance, see the channel? Also your risk/reward ratio is not good. If that trade continues north, it's highly likely your max profit could be 30 pips, while your initial stop loss could be up to 40 pips (depending on trader). I actually scalped this trade for 20pips, entry on M15 and hard TP taken out right where you entered (channel trade). By the way, the candles do show momentum, however keep in mind it's very probable that the momentum lasts for 3 candles only, just so it tests a previous...

believe it or not... price pulls back violently when it hit D 10EMA 1.3580
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #29,665
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:58am Jan 22, 2014 8:58am
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip.
Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades.
I think I have to practice a lot.

Thanks
Helanka
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Helanka
  • #29,666
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:03am Jan 22, 2014 9:03am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} believe it or not... price pulls back violently when it hit D 10EMA 1.3580
I actually made this 10pip scalp sell trade on M15, just to show this highly probable occurence, I figured whoever has problems with this could remember better this way

Notice how PL (green) stops at MBL (yellow) and 50. Try to visualize that S/R on the chart. Price tested previous resistance, failed, TDI cross, pull back. Trading made simple. Do that on a higher TF and you have real pips.
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  • #29,667
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:11am Jan 22, 2014 9:11am
Quoting Helanka
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip. Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades. I think I Helanka
have to practice a lot. Thanks Helanka {image}
Helanka,

as you can see we have a sideways market. In that situation most trend trading methods will fail.

See on H4 --> TDI all lines are around 50 and stuck in a range
Choppy candles with changing APB colors

The problem is in the beginning of that range type market, when the range will build up first.

Edit: If you use guppy emas, you can see that all the emas are close together, sometimes crossing and sometimes nearly in parallel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #29,668
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:13am Jan 22, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Helanka
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip. Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades. I think I have to practice a lot. Thanks Helanka {image}
Hi Helanka, the market is pretty choppy, many WRBs. As TDI reflects PA, one thing to know is that if MBL and other lines around it are flat(ish) and close to 50, the market is consolidating. The 50 and MBL are gravity centers, but especially strong in consolidating market. Selling/buying into 50 and MBL (major S/R), is a bad idea, unless you scalp and set the 50 and MBL as your TP.
  • #29,669
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:31am Jan 22, 2014 9:31am
Morning all,
Took some heavy losses last night on 4 JPY trades I placed at the 1.00pm candle, I should know better than to trade at that time.
Only one set up for me today:
GBP/AUD BUY H4
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  • #29,670
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:35am Jan 22, 2014 9:35am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} believe it or not... price pulls back violently when it hit D 10EMA 1.3580
Yeah, I noticed that too. I didn't exit 'cos I wanted to wait 'till the end of the candle. I know big e used to exit at the first sign of hook/flat or 15 pip retracement on the 1hr, but I don't really like taking decisions during candles, seen a lot of fakeouts and it's stressful. Perhaps I should, I'm still not sure...your input on this subject would be greatly appreciated. Oh, and thanks a ton for the intraday using prev daily bias example. I see what you mean now

@Lane

I agree, I felt it wasn't a really good trade either. I guess I should have waited for price to break out of resistance instead of gunnin' it. About risk/reward and candles, like in the original TMS, I'm not judging trades based on potential reward or # of candles. Based on what I've read so far, it's more of a subjective criteria and I think I'm happy with taking single candle profits. But yeah I should have avoided entering on resistance. Live and learn, thanks for the comment Lane!

-12.8 pips
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  • #29,671
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:07am Jan 22, 2014 10:07am
Quoting Lane
{quote} Hi Helanka, the market is pretty choppy, many WRBs. As TDI reflects PA, one thing to know is that if MBL and other lines around it are flat(ish) and close to 50, the market is consolidating. The 50 and MBL are gravity centers, but especially strong in consolidating market. Selling/buying into 50 and MBL (major S/R), is a bad idea, unless you scalp and set the 50 and MBL as your TP.

Dear Lane & fxFox

Thanks for your reply

Helanka
Helanka
  • #29,672
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:10am Jan 22, 2014 10:10am
Quoting Helanka
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip. Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades. I think I have to practice a lot. Thanks Helanka {image}

I will give it a go. Not because I know something, more as a way to learn myself. i monitored EJ the whole day but stayed out because of the look of the TDI as described below. I did see the LDN session low that formed with the LO candle and the PCRP that followed. But because of the TDI I stayed out.
Thats how this newbie sees it.
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  • #29,673
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:36am Jan 22, 2014 10:36am
Quoting Helanka
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip. Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades. I think I have to practice a lot. Thanks Helanka {image}
Helanka, any system will work in a trending or wide ranging market, the secret is to know how to cope with a choppy/tight ranging market, and thats where I think watching the higher timeframe tdi on the lower timeframes comes into its own. Its not helpful to be told well its choppy stay out, because as you've found out, its not always that easy to know its choppy until you are caught in it.

I am very picky with the trades I take because I trade to live, I am not an investor, I haven't got the luxury of only trading when the market looks perfect. Any system can be made to work in any situation if you take note of ALL timeframes involved.

Trade number 1 I wouldn't have taken because the red line of the tdi was still going up pretty strongly, it wasn't flattening out at all and there was hardly a cross of the tdi on H1. M5 couldn't close below the low the previous candle had made.

Trades number 2 & 3 an hour later than it was ideal to take it, there was a double bottom with the 2 preceding candles, along with a pullback candle, the green had bounced off the red and it was looking good to go up. When the candle where you took your trade ended up being an inside bar after such a nice bullish candle that should have had warning signals getting ready to come out, a larger than average candle with no follow through isn't usually a good sign. M5 tdi had also crossed down.

Trade number 4 Taken right on Frankfurt open, I very rarely take a trade right on the open of frankfurt, but I watched that one, and after having a pullback candle followed by an inside bar I was looking for it to probably go down, along with the m5 tdi being flat, and the h1 tdi green and red lines moving closer together, I waited to see if it would make a lower high on m5 which it did. One other thing, not sure why you held that trade for so long. When everything else looks good for going in the other direction come out of the trade.

Hope that all helps.
  • #29,674
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:13am Jan 22, 2014 11:13am
Because I hadn't the chance to get on the upmove uf GBPAUD (I followed the GBPUSD at that time) I tried to jump on the continouing move after NY open on H1, on break of the consolidation upwards with higher lows of the H1 candles. Due to the risk I entered with a smaller position than usual.

Now I closed the trade with +75 pips before NY close at resistance. Well done day today.
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fxFox (all times in my charts are GMT+1)
  • #29,675
  • Edited 11:27am Jan 22, 2014 11:15am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting Helanka
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip. Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades. I think I have to practice a lot. Thanks Helanka {image}
Been tough trading the EURJPY the last couple of days. Has been bouncing between 200 ema (almost to the pip) and 800 ema/round number.

Attached Image


Will wait for price to breakout of that channel me thinks. Patience is something you admire in the driver behind you and scorn in the one ahead.
We're all just one trade away from humility.
  • #29,676
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:28am Jan 22, 2014 11:28am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Helanka, any system will work in a trending or wide ranging market, the secret is to know how to cope with a choppy/tight ranging market, and thats where I think watching the higher timeframe tdi on the lower timeframes comes into its own. Its not helpful to be told well its choppy stay out, because as you've found out, its not always that easy to know its choppy until you are caught in it. I am very picky with the trades I take because I trade to live, I am not an investor, I haven't got the luxury of only trading when the market looks...

Thanks a lot for your reply & it was a good advice.
If you can pls share below details aswell.

When you see a good price action setup with TDI confirmation in h1 time frame.

1) Do you check Higher time frame(H4/D1) before take that trade?
2) if you check Higher time frame what kind of thing do you check?
3) Do you check Lower time frame(M5/M15) before take that trade?
4) if you check Lower time frame what kind of thing do you check?

Thanks
Helanka
Helanka
  • #29,677
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:33am Jan 22, 2014 11:33am
Quoting Drewas
{quote} Been tough trading the EURJPY the last couple of days. Has been bouncing between 200 ema (almost to the pip) and 800 ema/round number. {image} Will wait for price to breakout of that channel me thinks. Patience is something you admire in the driver behind you and scorn in the one ahead.
Dear Drewas,mor707

Thanks for your advise

Helanka
Helanka
  • #29,678
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm Jan 22, 2014 2:14pm
v


Quote
Today my EURJPY H1 trades,no profit today & lost -29 pip.
Pls advise me about my 1 st lost trade -27 pip & other lost trades.
I think I have to practice a lot.
Thanks
Helanka

Hello Helanka,

I would like to add a little advice for you to avoid getting trapped in small range; Always look at the higher TF and draw trend lines . If you draw them with 4 hours TF you will see that you where locked in the tip of a triangle . You must wait for the PA to get clearly out of this pattern before you decide to enter the market . You will have the same problem whatever the technique you decide to use !
I would have selected another pair .
  • #29,679
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:20pm Jan 22, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Helanka, any system will work in a trending or wide ranging market, the secret is to know how to cope with a choppy/tight ranging market, and thats where I think watching the higher timeframe tdi on the lower timeframes comes into its own. Its not helpful to be told well its choppy stay out, because as you've found out, its not always that easy to know its choppy until you are caught in it. I am very picky with the trades I take because I trade to live, I am not an investor, I haven't got the luxury of only trading when the market looks...

Great post thank you
Give yourself a chance and trade it like it's layed out...
  • #29,680
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:15pm Jan 22, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Thanks a lot for your reply & it was a good advice. If you can pls share below details aswell. When you see a good price action setup with TDI confirmation in h1 time frame. 1) Do you check Higher time frame(H4/D1) before take that trade? 2) if you check Higher time frame what kind of thing do you check? 3) Do you check Lower time frame(M5/M15) before take that trade? 4) if you check Lower time frame what kind of thing do you check? Thanks Helanka
1. I check D1 before I start trading for the day, and I check H4 before I take a trade.
2. On D1 I look for any particular candle pattern I should bear in mind, like a pin bar for instance that might affect the trades, but its not set in stone just something to bear in mind. On H4 before a trade I like to see it at least starting to move the way I'm trading, for instance a pullback candle, candle turning the right colour, anything that would give me a clue that it could go the way I'm wanting to trade.
3. I check those timeframes as well.
4. I just check that everything is in agreement with the way I want to trade on H1, if the tdi is looking overbought/oversold on m5 I will tend to wait for a pullback before entering. If I'm looking at selling on H1 I would want to see a lower high on m5 or good divergence at least and if buying on H1 I would look for a higher low on m5 along with a good step up/down on the mtf h1 tdi.
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