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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #941
  • Jan 22, 2014 12:55am Jan 22, 2014 12:55am
Quoting Girimonti
Folks, I am a novice, so please go easy on me if this has already been answered elsewhere. Question: When analyzing for support and resistance, trends and cyclicity, how many candles should we have visible on any given timescale? Reason for the question: If, for example, I am condensing my chart and have about 200 bars showing, I would definitely determine trends, cyclicity and S/R differently than on a smaller range of candles, say around 72. Is there anything in the way of best practice, when it comes to determining this? Kindest regards, Bill...
Hi Girimonti - I would zoom out and look left as far as it takes to get a clear picture. Moving averages are often used to determine the trend (if it's pointing up, then trend is up etc.) the 200 simple moving average on the daily gives the broadest picture you probably want to look at - a lot of banks supposedly use it. Drawing classic S/R is alot more subjective - if you want to follow the classic approach then I you could do worse than look at the Strats thread and website . Also if you are a novice I suggest doing Babypips school - its free and give some good basic information

On this thread we take a completely different approach as we believe S/R and targets are set at the begining of the year ahead of time - its radical, even mystical but works - you'll need to read the thread to get an idea as to what we mean.

GL

Steve
  • #942
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:13am Jan 22, 2014 2:13am
good morning from europe, aud-usd buy signal
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  • #943
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:33am Jan 22, 2014 3:33am
gbp-usd reached target template 103
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  • #944
  • Jan 22, 2014 3:38am Jan 22, 2014 3:38am
Quoting jmss59
gbp-usd reached target template 103 {image}
Excellent - I wonder if it will give the next long today (1.65723) - I hope so .
  • #945
  • Jan 22, 2014 4:14am Jan 22, 2014 4:14am
Thanks a lot to Jmss59 and hollowhaed for the valuable updates!!
  • #946
  • Jan 22, 2014 4:20am Jan 22, 2014 4:20am
Spectacular results template gbp-usd pair. 5 operations open 5 operations closed with 40 pips profit.
5 operations at 40 pips 200 pips
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  • #947
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:19am Jan 22, 2014 5:19am
With the aud-usd pair the picture is complicated because we would have 3 open and 2 with operations coverage, which means 5 open trades. For this operation you need a very large bill.

Hollowhead: What do you think account balance is required for this operation?

On the other hand we have. The 1-2-3-5-6 operations are winners. We would have 5 x 40: 200 pips more
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  • #948
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:40am Jan 22, 2014 5:40am
In the eur-usd pair will have the operation three open and covered. 1-2-4 winning operations. 3 x 40: 120 pips.
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  • #949
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:49am Jan 22, 2014 5:49am
Quoting jmss59
With the aud-usd pair the picture is complicated because we would have 3 open and 2 with operations coverage, which means 5 open trades. For this operation you need a very large bill. Hollowhead: What do you think account balance is required for this operation? On the other hand we have. The 1-2-3-5-6 operations are winners. We would have 5 x 40: 200 pips more {image}
AU is messy at the moment and requires careful managing. As you know I hedge and in the middle of all these T5_103 trades and signals there are a few larger template signals (as you know I took the T4F long signal). The larger templates are bearish to approx .8685. It's impossible to say about size of account because that depend on lot size (or the other way round). If you trade 1-2% of account per target (ie T5_103 target is 40 pips. 1-2%/40 = lots size). I think you can accommodate significant DD in terms of number of pips without threatening your account.

To me the trick is keeping hedges as balanced as I can so I always know what my total risk is if I close out all trades on a pair. Taking additional trades to offset the hedge amount (as you point out with the 5 trades won, effectively reducing the 303.8 to 103.8 pip DD) helps and can be very profitable when all targets are hit.

This is a high risk, high reward method of trading and certainly not for the novice. Bobi was clear earlier in the year that he doesn't recommend trading without a stoploss (although I thought previously he implied that's what he did). Although I don't have a SL in mind - I do know the maximum risk I am prepared to take in total before I pull the plug on all the trades and accept the loss. Haven't had to do it yet. AU might get close to it and it will depend on what happens at .8685 (the 680 target).

It would be nice to have the T5_594 baselines for reversal areas - I always felt a little clearer when I could factor those in.

Hope that helps

Steve
  • #950
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:52am Jan 22, 2014 5:52am
Summarizing as of today:

gbp-usd 200 pips
aud-usd 200 pips
eur-usd 120 pips
Total 520 pips

We have open positions 4 and 3 cover: 7.

We must calculate the retention for each open operation (keep in mind lots per trade), our broker effected more or less to calculate the account balance, calm and able to operate all necessary operations open.
  • #951
  • Jan 22, 2014 6:38am Jan 22, 2014 6:38am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} AU is messy at the moment and requires careful managing. As you know I hedge and in the middle of all these T5_103 trades and signals there are a few larger template signals (as you know I took the T4F long signal). The larger templates are bearish to approx .8685. It's impossible to say about size of account because that depend on lot size (or the other way round). If you trade 1-2% of account per target (ie T5_103 target is 40 pips. 1-2%/40 = lots size). I think you can accommodate significant DD in terms of number of pips without threatening...
I agree with you, and this particular system, it highlights the importance of good management of MM
  • #952
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:44am Jan 22, 2014 7:44am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Excellent - I wonder if it will give the next long today (1.65723) - I hope so .

I'm in!! GU Long. TP 1.66123
  • #953
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:43am Jan 22, 2014 8:43am
I deleted my previous post because it did not correspond to this thread
  • #954
  • Jan 22, 2014 9:23am Jan 22, 2014 9:23am
Quoting jmss59
gbp-usd reached target template 103 {image}
What timeframe do you use with 103 template - i know Bobi indicated timeframe not the nimportant thing as all will work with all timeframes but i am curious which you use.
  • #955
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:07am Jan 22, 2014 10:07am
Quoting tomthepoppop
{quote} What timeframe do you use with 103 template - i know Bobi indicated timeframe not the nimportant thing as all will work with all timeframes but i am curious which you use.
Tom, do not quite understand the question, you can re-formulate. thanks
  • #956
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:04am Jan 22, 2014 11:04am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} Tom, do not quite understand the question, you can re-formulate. thanks



Hi Jmss59.. We all know the 103 template uses the daily, but I think what he's asking is are you using another timeframe such as 5m, 15m, 30m. That's just my guess.






Zo
Staircase down to ride the elevator up.....wait..wait..wait for it
  • #957
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:16am Jan 22, 2014 11:16am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} I'm in!! GU Long. TP 1.66123

Hi Hollowhead & Jmss59. I know yesterday after studying the GU and determining it had more room to run, the overnight hours had me a little concerned with my own analysis seeing the ALL out fight that was going on LOL. Glad I stayed the course!!







Zo








Zo
Staircase down to ride the elevator up.....wait..wait..wait for it
  • #958
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:46am Jan 22, 2014 11:46am
Quoting eurozo
{quote} Hi Hollowhead & Jmss59. I know yesterday after studying the GU and determining it had more room to run, the overnight hours had me a little concerned with my own analysis seeing the ALL out fight that was going on LOL. Glad I stayed the course!! Zo Zo
congratulations Zo
  • #959
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:47am Jan 22, 2014 11:47am
Quoting eurozo
{quote} Hi Jmss59.. We all know the 103 template uses the daily, but I think what he's asking is are you using another timeframe such as 5m, 15m, 30m. That's just my guess. Zo
Abonacci templates use any timeframes and none. Jmss59 posts charts that are on the 1h timeframe - I suspect simply because it is easier to see the levels for that template. If you want to be able to see 2 or 3 phases then you need to look at the 1 hour. If you only want to see the phase the trade is in on the 103 then you could look at a 15m chart. It is really only personal preference as to how you like to see the charts for each template. If you view the 1130 on a 15m chart you have no idea where you are because the phase is so big.

In fact you can trade abonacci without any charts at all. All you need is the prices levels and current price feed.

Hope that makes sense.

Steve
  • #960
  • Jan 22, 2014 11:50am Jan 22, 2014 11:50am
Quoting eurozo
{quote} Hi Hollowhead & Jmss59. I know yesterday after studying the GU and determining it had more room to run, the overnight hours had me a little concerned with my own analysis seeing the ALL out fight that was going on LOL. Glad I stayed the course!! Zo Zo
Good trade. Well done.
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