EurAnalysis

Yes this was my thoughts too but I know I am more than likely going to get back in next week on some aud again.

I see a change in the market dynamic. There has been, on an on-going basis, a movement of capital into the Dollar. As the SPX/RUT pushed higher, the inverse correlation between equities and dollar has diverged. I expect a number of the "big players" have been altering there equity exposure as the Fed have begun to taper. This movement should continue. I don't know if the SPX has reached the end of its run, though at this point it's having trouble with 1850 and looks like retracing short term. [There's a lovely weekly Morning Star forming on the RVX at mkt support lvls. for traders to go long vega] Should the equity mkt retrace, it will weight on the eu pair, adding to the downside.

Hi Pip ,I think not bullish now ?
gap down would be bearish ,but note monthly stopping actual pip loss week on week

In fact the last up move which surprised me only to touch major downtrend line imo

You might very well be correct Bones, but I have to stick with my system. Been burned every time I strayed. Learned my lessons long time ago.
For me it is still a bull market and even if it is a bear market, nothing goes in a straight line so we'll see at least an attempt to retest higher levels.

sorry for messing up your chart here is still a good possibility for a higher high.

the zig zag in yellow could be finished

here also ,
141 goes ...

No prob I do see poss for next green ,

Good day,

EURUSD Technical NO TRADE - CAUTION - The breach of the LT TL is not a bearish sign, there is a minor TL which might really be a coincidental rejection of polarity or S/R level 1.3517x only if price trades below this level, tests and rejects it has the pair turned bearish.

Note the falling wedge in formation, though a large structure ... if it validates it forecasts breach of 1.365 targets 1.37 and then 1.38050 then challenge the new highs. Stops would be advised if price traded below 1.351

Price is currently in the no trade zone as direction is unclear technically. No events and US public holiday would forecast sideways chop as the highest probability. New positions on Monday would be gambling in my opinion.

Sentiment on the pair is to the downside with DXY surprisingly bullish thus continued down side momentum could be seen but with low volatility unless there is an event... Anything can happen but this isn't looking

Minor candle formation of the 3 star reversal suggests bearish PA

PA trading below 1.36280 weekly reistance suggests the pair is bearish

But the wedge will wipe out aggressive bears...

Have fun and trade safe, I think Gold is starting to showing potential.

G/L

Excellent post. Not only is this a complete guide to running a FX business, one could change a few words, flesh out this outline and it would work great for any business, from a jewelry store to a construction company. PT, it seems to me you have refined your trading techniques a good deal over the past few months. Bet you are more profitable than ever now.

And here's my chart to add up to the ones above.
This is my EU expectations for upcoming week or two. I think we're BEARISH now, though you still can find one or two support lines holding the price.
There's a combination of few important Fibo levels overlaying each other by the single pip, so I think they play a significant support for a while.
1.3460 is the first one and 1.3200-1.3190 as the final target.

ummm..
Worst Financial Crisis since 1931?
German State-Owned Banks on Verge of Collapse..
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...635-druck.html

I see E/U forming a bottom here for the next weekly bull swing above 1.4, U/C an G/U agrees on Dollar weakness...Gold pointing to 1280's, 1340's and maybe higher. U/J wants 106.1 before continuing bearish correction - 103.9/8 is a decision point fot it to target either 102.20's or 106.1's, if it manages to climb in 106 first, then it would also agree on dollar weakness spree all over the place..

LOL

the article is from 2008


you devil - trying to prove our attention?

I apologize .. but the other item was associated with the current and I did not notice the link.

current Article 2014


European banks have capital needs of around EUR 767 billion , before exercise of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) , according to a study conducted by a German researcher and an American academic .

French banks have the largest hole ( EUR 285 billion) , followed by German banks (€ 199,000 million ) , reveal the findings of Sascha Steffen , of the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin , and Viral Acharya , University of New York , according to Bloomberg financial information agency .

" A thorough analysis of the quality of the assets of European banks should reveal a lack of substantial capital in many peripheral and central European countries ," write the authors , who analyzed 109 of the 124 banks in the Eurozone that will be analyzed in exams ECB before the team led by Mario Draghi assume its supervisory authority .

The authors point to a particularly high risk in the German state-owned banks ( Landesbanken ) . "Germany has many state-owned financial institutions that will require injections of capital," they warn.

Spanish banks have already shortcomings are estimated at EUR 92 billion , while Italian banks need around € 45 billion to meet the capital ratios that the new rules for European banks require .

In addition to anticipate the need for significant capital increases made ​​and the transformation of debt into equity ( at the expense of creditors ) , the authors say that in some cases it will be inevitable to use state aid to address the lack of capital for financial institutions analyzed .

Bloomberg News also highlights the weak position of banks in Belgium , Cyprus and Greece , without making any reference to the four Portuguese banks that are involved in this exercise the ECB , namely CGD ( CGD ) , Banco Comercial Portuguese ( BCP ) , Banco BPI group and the Holy Spirit (which controls the BES ) .

However , both the Portuguese bankers , or the governor of the Bank of Portugal , Carlos Costa , has made ​​public several times to ensure that institutions are well capitalized and should not require further state aid , since, since the beginning of the international assistance program for Portugal , already recapitalised significantly , unlike most of its European counterparts .

During this year , the ECB, together with the European ( EBA , the English acronym) Banking Authority will conduct ' stress ' to 124 institutions concerned tests as well as a review of their portfolio of government debt .

Read more : # http://expresso.sapo.pt/bancos-europ...nheiro=f851410 ixzz2qxnpuNbF

I see an important down-move trend line at around the 1.3580 level.
There are also critical resistances, as highlighted in the hourly chart shown below.



We can witness another dive down from these levels in the coming session, in my opinion.
I am a seller above the 1.3600 level for sure.
There are some key events scheduled during the week.
Let's see how the pair trades in coming days.

Cheers!

Hey all. Sorry I haven't been around as I've been taking a break from FF... focusing more on family and friends.

Less trading, more socializing and spiritual healing.

We should all do that regularly.

Many green pips to all.

Hey hoh,

welcome back my friend

EU Daily

Sentiment around the EU is quite negative... the chart is mixed... I'm still not of a view to put money on the table

Can't say I blame you PT. This stuff sends you doolally