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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,881
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:55pm Jan 21, 2014 9:55pm

Bank of Japan leaves Monetary Policy unchanged. Retains adding 60-70T Yen per annum increase to monetary base

  1. Full statement from BoJ: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcement...4/k140122a.pdf
  2. Japan’s central bank unanimously voted to retain current stimulus activity as outlined in today’s monetary policy.
  3. BoJ will conduct money market operations to increase monetary base as an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.
  4. Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately. Front-loaded increase in demand prior to the consumption tax hike (this April) has recently been observed.
  5. Public investment continues to increase. Industrial production has been increasing moderately
  6. Year-on-year CPI is around 1.25%. Inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole.
  7. Risks to Japan’s outlook include developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, Euro debt problem, and the pace of US recovery.
  8. The Bank will continue with ‘QQE’ aiming to achieve their inflation target of 2%.

  • #41,882
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:07pm Jan 21, 2014 10:07pm
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but why did the yen pairs all drop if policy is unchanged?
Freedom 30?
  • #41,883
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:12pm Jan 21, 2014 10:12pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} Don't know wut up wid dat Perhaps you can enlighten me. Short btw.......... but not confidently so.

Couple of scenarios that are possible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #41,884
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:13pm Jan 21, 2014 10:13pm
Quoting Torrent
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but why did the yen pairs all drop if policy is unchanged?
It was simply in the charts.

best
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #41,885
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:23pm Jan 21, 2014 10:23pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} It was simply in the charts. best
Truth is though.... just because she's going down.... don't get married (to that trade/)

Plenty of "feel good" things overcome common judgement at times.

Always be aware (or at least use protection).

Happy Trading
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #41,886
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:28pm Jan 21, 2014 10:28pm
Quoting Torrent
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but why did the yen pairs all drop if policy is unchanged?
Short-lived Yen strength as the market was slightly expecting a stimulus increase from the BoJ, which didn't happen today, but still foretasted by analysts to happen sometime this year. Usd/Jpy fell to a known level of buyers at 104.0. If those bulls can't support it then we may see a drop but I don't see a reason for bearish sentiment to be on Jpy crosses off of the BoJ release.
  • #41,887
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:31pm Jan 21, 2014 10:31pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Short-lived Yen strength as the market was slightly expecting a stimulus increase from the BoJ, which didn't happen today, but still foretasted by analysts to happen sometime this year. Usd/Jpy fell to a known level of buyers at 104.0. If those bulls can't support it then we may see a drop but I don't see a reason for bearish sentiment to be on Jpy crosses off of the BoJ release.
Thanks Emerald.
Freedom 30?
  • #41,888
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:32pm Jan 21, 2014 10:32pm
http://i.imgur.com/aj14uky.png hns pattern for usd jpy
  • #41,889
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:35pm Jan 21, 2014 10:35pm
Still can't see a decisive move one way or the other... PA just brokedown the neckline of that fuzzy, if you look hard enough, H&S's, but it is also the fourth time it does so. On the other hand the 104.00 level is showing some support once again. Also the monthly PP and the weekly are at the same level of 104.0X.

Wanna se a clean breakdown of the 104.00 before i even star to think on being bearish on this pair... And nothing short of a clean breakout of the near term, unconfirmed, downward trend line (Test Point 1 @ 2014/01/10 High ; Test Point 2 @ 2014/01/21 High) is gonna make me bullish.

It's a choppy sea out there, i'm gonna stay in the harbor for now...
  • #41,890
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:35pm Jan 21, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Short-lived Yen strength
And you're reasonably certain it will be "short lived" ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #41,891
  • Edited 10:52pm Jan 21, 2014 10:36pm | Edited 10:52pm
long 104.08, looking to catch a few on way up

sl to 104.09
  • #41,892
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:38pm Jan 21, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting Torrent
{quote} Thanks Emerald.
Keep an eye on Japan's inflation-related data releases such as the Tokyo Core CPI next week. Their central bank is doing everything possible to reach 2% year-on-year inflation. Some say pumping 60-70T yen per year won't be enough to meet that inflation goal. If they start falling short (worse-than-expected) on inflation data, look to the BOJ to increase QE even more to devalue the Yen. If that happens, many traders will jump long on Xxx/Jpy pairs.
  • #41,893
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:41pm Jan 21, 2014 10:41pm
Good to know, Thanks. Fundamentals have always been a thorn in my side.
Freedom 30?
  • #41,894
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:43pm Jan 21, 2014 10:43pm
larger hns on todstars post above making right shoulder with 103 neck and drop to 101 area
  • #41,895
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:43pm Jan 21, 2014 10:43pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} And you're reasonably certain it will be "short lived" ?
BoJ reiterated to keep the world's largest injection of quantitative easing going. No change in underlying conditions, only that the Japanese economy is on the track to recovery. Not announcing a further increase of stimulus was bearish on Japanese equities, keeping them negative, bringing temporarily strength to the Yen today.
  • #41,896
  • Jan 21, 2014 10:54pm Jan 21, 2014 10:54pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote}............ bringing temporarily strength to the Yen today.
You're pretty good, though a bit evasive of the exact question. I think you're
a great trader and might be a good politician (just don't over-regulate when you're
chairman of the FCC. ) K?

all the best
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #41,897
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:13pm Jan 21, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} You're pretty good, though a bit evasive of the exact question. I think you're a great trader and might be a good politician (just don't over-regulate when you're chairman of the FCC. ) K? all the best
Oh, sorry I dont think it'll end under 104.0 today based on the market and I personally remain long-biased on the pair. I'd be surprised to see a break under the 103.85 lows as that would trigger 104.0+ bulls' sell stops and shorts to enter. I dont see UJ closing above 104.75 today either.. kinda lack-luster without US or JPY news out to make traders trade. Maybe US Unemployment claims on Thurs but idk..

Market has turned its attention to GBP as it's the UK's turn for Unemployment/Interest rate decision.
  • #41,898
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:20pm Jan 21, 2014 11:20pm
Long, will add more if it breaks 104.7-8
  • #41,899
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:41pm Jan 21, 2014 11:41pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} kinda lack-luster without US or JPY news out to make traders trade.
Yup.... and "lackluster" is not a good time for me.
I usually prefer to race or get out of the car.

Sometimes, I don't know when to get out of the car ?

Just food for thought, really.

Cheers....
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #41,900
  • Jan 21, 2014 11:58pm Jan 21, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting EmeraldEyes
{quote} Oh, sorry I dont think it'll end under 104.0 today based on the market and I personally remain long-biased on the pair.
You're probably right.

"Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or present are certain to miss the future." — John F. Kennedy
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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