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USD/CAD

  • #4,641
  • Jan 17, 2014 1:35pm Jan 17, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} Not today : ( I took a little short near resistance level becasue it seems like USDCAD needs to breath and retrace on 23 or 38% Fib before crossing that psychological barrier 1.10 {image}
don't know if it gets there today. However it is pretty close. Next week I foresee some volatility as on Wednesday there will be the rate decision. Rate should be left intact at 1% almost certainly. Prior to October 2013, BOC wanted to increase the rate. Slowdown suddenly announced in October 2013 was blamed on US growth uncertain conditions. I expect improvements in the manufacturing sector thanks to current exchange rate.
  • #4,642
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:47am Jan 20, 2014 10:47am
Anyone home?
Looks like CAD is sleeping, anyway, what do you think about upcoming events in BoC?

So far "1.1 is still holding tight, market is currently pricing in a 25% probability of an interest rate cut in Canada over the next 12 months",'"financial stabililty is still a major concern in Canada. Inflation supposed to pick up in second half of 2014, due to America recovery".
Some issues going on with Keystone XL project there. We will see how it will play. If decision will go forward this would be CAD positive.

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  • #4,643
  • Jan 20, 2014 10:55am Jan 20, 2014 10:55am
"Obama is under heavy pressure from environmental activists to veto the northern leg, and Washington seems in no hurry, despite the growing irritation in Ottawa. Canada is the largest single supplier of energy to the United States."
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I think its worth to look after.
  • #4,644
  • Jan 20, 2014 12:46pm Jan 20, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting xau
"Obama is under heavy pressure from environmental activists to veto the northern leg, and Washington seems in no hurry, despite the growing irritation in Ottawa. Canada is the largest single supplier of energy to the United States." {image} I think its worth to look after.
I think that CAD's weakness is more the result of USD strength than other. It may come back greatly but we need confirmation. I didn't trade today.
  • #4,645
  • Jan 20, 2014 12:49pm Jan 20, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I think that CAD's weakness is more the result of USD strength than other. It may come back greatly but we need confirmation. I didn't trade today.

disagree with that statement.Cad is also weak against other majors
obvious reason is weak numbers that came out recently.
Cad is about to break huge psychological barrier and I won't buy the Cad (short UC) until up momentum is exhausted.So far it has not.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,646
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:39pm Jan 20, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} disagree with that statement.Cad is also weak against other majors obvious reason is weak numbers that came out recently. Cad is about to break huge psychological barrier and I won't buy the Cad (short UC) until up momentum is exhausted.So far it has not.
I see your point Davit but on the technical side, I am neutral on where CAD is heading to. I am waiting for confirmation. The fact that I don't think that Canada's economy is that bad doesn't necessarily mean that I would buy CAD against USD. I am just saying that I find strange that only in October they wanted to increase the interest rate. Bad data started between November-December in the middle of important deals in the resources sector between US and Canada. USDCAD uptrend started in September instead. Uptrend may depend on these important deals or US growth expectations.
  • #4,647
  • Jan 20, 2014 3:55pm Jan 20, 2014 3:55pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I see your point Davit but on the technical side, I am neutral on where CAD is heading to. I am waiting for confirmation. The fact that I don't think that Canada's economy is that bad doesn't necessarily mean that I would buy CAD against USD. I am just saying that I find strange that only in October they wanted to increase the interest rate. Bad data started between November-December in the middle of important deals in the resources sector between US and Canada. USDCAD uptrend started in September instead. Uptrend may depend on these important...

I Wondered about this as well. Only logical explanation I can think of is Aussie dollar fall contributed to Cad fall as well since markets tend to box "commodity pairs" together.
Notice every time Aussie gains on USD so does the Cad.Notice how far Aussie fell recently and also depreciation of Cad.Perfectly in sink.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,648
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:09pm Jan 20, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting xau
Anyone home? Looks like CAD is sleeping, anyway, what do you think about upcoming events in BoC? So far "1.1 is still holding tight, market is currently pricing in a 25% probability of an interest rate cut in Canada over the next 12 months",'"financial stabililty is still a major concern in Canada. Inflation supposed to pick up in second half of 2014, due to America recovery". Some issues going on with Keystone XL project there. We will see how it will play. If decision will go forward this would be CAD positive. {image}
An interest rate cut would create a bubble in the housing sector which is a major concern now. They have better chances to increase it first as soon as inflation picks up and jobs data is revised up.
  • #4,649
  • Jan 21, 2014 3:36am Jan 21, 2014 3:36am
Fortunately took profits on last week's trades. Entered short again just now. May be a little early. I believe she is wanting to touch 1.1017 / 1.1018 - we can expect this as resistance then for the short term.

I still see us revisiting 1.0820 in the next few weeks.



Regards
  • #4,650
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:09am Jan 21, 2014 4:09am
Quoting TauTrader
Fortunately took profits on last week's trades. Entered short again just now. May be a little early. I believe she is wanting to touch 1.1017 / 1.1018 - we can expect this as resistance then for the short term. I still see us revisiting 1.0820 in the next few weeks. Regards
1.1 gone...so expect more to it....
  • #4,651
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:12am Jan 21, 2014 4:12am
I see 1.06 in next few weeks!
  • #4,652
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:12am Jan 21, 2014 4:12am
Quoting TauTrader
Fortunately took profits on last week's trades. Entered short again just now. May be a little early. I believe she is wanting to touch 1.1017 / 1.1018 - we can expect this as resistance then for the short term. I still see us revisiting 1.0820 in the next few weeks. Regards
I think 1.1049 is better for sell bro.
  • #4,653
  • Jan 21, 2014 4:36am Jan 21, 2014 4:36am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I think 1.1049 is better for sell bro.
Sir,

Will continue adding as we go. You have to admit though... the 1.1017/1.1018 was spot on. let's see if 1.0990/1.0989 offers support..
  • #4,654
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:05am Jan 21, 2014 5:05am
Why are people still selling usd/cad. I think it will go up especially after it broke 1.1 and I don't see this pair gonna retrace lower than 1.097.
  • #4,655
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:11am Jan 21, 2014 5:11am
Quoting MrketSniper
Why are people still selling usd/cad. I think it will go up especially after it broke 1.1 and I don't see this pair gonna retrace lower than 1.097.
tp may be close to the one indicated by Goldman which is 1.14...they are probably involved in some deal between Canada and US
  • #4,656
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:26am Jan 21, 2014 5:26am
Quoting Greener
{quote} tp may be close to the one indicated by Goldman which is 1.14...they are probably involved in some deal between Canada and US
that would suck, I shorted since 1.09.
  • #4,657
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:29am Jan 21, 2014 5:29am
  • #4,658
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:31am Jan 21, 2014 5:31am
Quoting hastings
{quote} that would suck, I shorted since 1.09.
Dude its a life time opportunity. CAD just cant stop giving and your shorting it? no offence but your trading wont go far
  • #4,659
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:42am Jan 21, 2014 5:42am
Quoting Sergii1
{quote} Dude its a life time opportunity. CAD just cant stop giving and your shorting it? no offence but your trading wont go far
So - mine neither then.

The point that one needs to worry - is the point of over confidence.

Your remark is bad.

cheers
  • #4,660
  • Jan 21, 2014 5:46am Jan 21, 2014 5:46am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} So - mine neither then. The point that one needs to worry - is the point of over confidence. Your remark is bad. cheers
all i can say is good luck with your shorts
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