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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,801
  • Jan 20, 2014 5:44pm Jan 20, 2014 5:44pm
Next level of buy stops @ 104.95 . Offers from Japanese exporters & options at 105.0. Recent action in chart with order levels marked: pic.twitter.com/YQwHb3EPNo
  • #41,802
  • Jan 20, 2014 6:58pm Jan 20, 2014 6:58pm
Hello US/JPY

Holding to many longs in the YEN pairs

is like owning a bucket with a hole in it.

Hopefully it looks like its starting to move now
  • #41,803
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello US/JPY Holding to many longs in the YEN pairs is like owning a bucket with a hole in it. Hopefully it looks like its starting to move now
the tp on my longs was at 104.5 but nvm, good pips, this is goin to be the push to 106?
  • #41,804
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm
  • #41,805
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm Jan 20, 2014 7:07pm
ugh... i missed my entry. i wanted to get in earlier, closer to 104.20, but i was at work for a change. lol.

don't know what to do now but thinking about going long still at 104.62, perhaps for a quick scalp or better.
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  • #41,806
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:17pm Jan 20, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting pursuit_21
{quote} that was a slow 24hrs....re-entered longs at 104.15, will look to take profit back up to 104.60. imo price will range between these two areas until news gives it some impetus {image}
we finally reached the upside block at 104.6X. look to fill in longs for any retrace that finds base in 104.2x.
will probably scale out of longs at 104.8x - 104.9x if we break up.
  • #41,807
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:36pm Jan 20, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting Rgg
anybody hear any "rumors" as to the BOJ rates decision (or other policy changes) tomorrow....... Strange movement just now on Hilsenrath's WSJ "opinion" that FED will lower QE on Jan 29th.. USUALLY not that kind of IMMEDIATE movement on just this guys oppinion

no rumors
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-most-feb-2013

China print
  • #41,808
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:36pm Jan 20, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting pursuit_21
will probably scale out of longs at 104.8x - 104.9x if we break up.
yeah, me too. probably a good idea.

EDIT: maybe not. i also feel like we could bust through 105 pretty soon. i guess i'll play it by ear and see what the market tells me
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  • #41,809
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:45pm Jan 20, 2014 7:45pm
Situation looks precarious to me. Could be staring at a nice short opportunity.
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  • #41,810
  • Jan 20, 2014 7:53pm Jan 20, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting todstars2
Situation looks precarious to me. Could be staring at a nice short opportunity. {image} {image}
what's the difference in the charts? both Daily's, and they look the same to me.

i agree with you though -- partially. watching the PA now it looks like it may be time for the shorts. either that or we may stay range-bound for a while.

let's first see how 104.60 holds up because that will be key, as we cannot yet rule out the possibility of still going long.
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  • #41,811
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:00pm Jan 20, 2014 8:00pm
would ya look at that?!?

there must be a buy program at or around 104.60. imho.
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  • #41,812
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:08pm Jan 20, 2014 8:08pm
Quoting todstars2
Situation looks precarious to me. Could be staring at a nice short opportunity. {image} {image} {image}
Why do you see this is a short?
  • #41,813
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:13pm Jan 20, 2014 8:13pm
Quoting smash1820
ugh... i missed my entry. i wanted to get in earlier, closer to 104.20, but i was at work for a change. lol. don't know what to do now but thinking about going long still at 104.62, perhaps for a quick scalp or better.
in my eyes it would be super agro long too risky

bwt: what spread your broker takes on gbp/jpy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #41,814
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:15pm Jan 20, 2014 8:15pm
Quoting 3ckune
in my eyes it would be super agro long too risky {image}
what does agro mean? aggressive? yes, that i am! read my profile haha
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #41,815
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:16pm Jan 20, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} what's the difference in the charts? both Daily's, and they look the same to me. i agree with you though -- partially. watching the PA now it looks like it may be time for the shorts. either that or we may stay range-bound for a while. let's first see how 104.60 holds up because that will be key, as we cannot yet rule out the possibility of still going long.
First one is a "by the book" valid trend line.

Second one is a pending since it only has two strikes

Third is for comparsion: USD, NZD, etc, JPY pairs showing a downtrend too.
  • #41,816
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:20pm Jan 20, 2014 8:20pm
Quoting todstars2
First one is a "by the book" valid trend line. Second one is a pending since it only has two strikes Third is for comparsion: USD, NZD, etc, JPY pairs showing a downtrend too.
Sorry, no offense, but the three points you've made mean nothing.

I am confident it is a long, and 105 is going to break soon... and if not, this week.

104.60 seems to be holding, and there seems to be an "auto-buy" program there (ie: support).

All the indicators are pointing upwards. And more importantly... the price action.

The "selloff" you were expecting was merely a "consolidation".

And that is all bullish.

PS: And by the way, in your 1st image the TL is drawn incorrectly. The high that busts through the middle of it invalidates the TL you have drawn.
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  • #41,817
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:26pm Jan 20, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Why do you see this is a short?

Traders have not been able to close the price for this pair above this "line of resistance" for two weeks now, let alone even get any outlier buyers above it.

Doesn't mean they wont come out of the woodwork from somewhere, but the longer the situation goes on the less likely this is.
  • #41,818
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:31pm Jan 20, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote} no rumors http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-most-feb-2013 China print
Thanks.... so it was the CNY devaluation that set off the USD/JPY "rocket" going UP...
that explains it.
  • #41,819
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} Sorry, no offense, but the three points you've made mean nothing. I am confident it is a long, and 105 is going to break soon... and if not, this week. 104.60 seems to be holding, and there seems to be an "auto-buy" program there (ie: support). All the indicators are pointing upwards. And more importantly... the price action. The "selloff" you were expecting was merely a "consolidation". And that is all bullish. PS: And by the way, in your 1st image the TL is drawn incorrectly. The high that busts through the middle of it invalidates the...

Classic technical analysis by Magee allows for one penetration. 9th edition of Technical analysis of Stock Trends

Even with that the Close remains below this "line of resistance".

Nothing is ever certain, but with each passing days closing price being below the line, the probabilty that it will continue to close below this line increases.

Dont know who said it but it rings true...

"The trend is the trend until it is no longer the trend"
  • #41,820
  • Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm Jan 20, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting todstars2
Doesn't mean they wont come out of the woodwork from somewhere, but the longer the situation goes on the less likely this is.
I think you mean the more likely it is, not less.

You seem to have it backwards. The longer we consolidate, the more ammo the BULLS have. Since the overall trend is bullish, a consolidation actually gives an edge to the bulls not the bears.
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