Sonic R. System

EU - what I see now is false breakout and look at the volume, this is a some serious ultra volume there.

Still seems to me ~1.355 is going to be taken out - supported by the news due in a few minutes

AU - now it looks even more like an accumulation. Finally we have some sort of test or spring also, which is a part of accumulation of course

EU Short Trade Closed:

Manually closed for 41 pips gain.

Seems like you got your 1.355

Anyway, it's a friday night and time to end this week. Will see what next week will bring

EJ Short Trade Opened:

Manually closed trade for 51 pips gain.

GU - closed for 1146 pips gain

Great, You are my hero today.

Au first scout long

the spring and price going down and A/D up.

H.

GU Comment: Bulls, Bears, Bastards, and Money Management

On the WEEK chart GU is ranging, but a few weeks back have tall upper wicks indicating increased bear sentiment. The prices were spiked up, presumably to close longs and leave others holding the bag, and closed back lower. Last week was a spike down, which in the context of those two earlier weeks just mentioned, would indicate the start of strong selling (short building) and price recovery so as to not scare off long traders. This week accentuates that picture. It is a week that most likely closes as a bear candle with a long lower wick; strong shorting but followed by a price recovery so as to not scare off longs and so as to preserve higher prices for more shorting.

On the DAY chart GU has already established a nice pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with today creating a new lower low and a new lower high. GU is in a down trend.

So, the spike back up today becomes something I find of interest to talk about.

The Market Makers know where all the big orders are, both requests for long positions and for short positions. Now suppose, since GU looks to have topped off and to be starting down, big short orders were placed back up higher by the big players, the banks. Surely, the Market Makers would love to get the price back up there to start filling those short orders and make gobs of commissions. How to do it, though? They know the imbalance between long and short orders at every level, both up and down from the current level. If they are to move the price back up to where new large short orders are waiting to be filled, then the Market Makers are going to have to absorb the imbalance at every level as they push the price up. It means that by the time they get the price up, they have accumulated some net long or short position at some average price that is between where they started the push and where they ended it. Since the push is up, presumably their net is a short, which they might profit on once the price goes back down. But, if the net is a long, they can immediately profit as they end up at a higher price. Next comes the question of who is going to take the long side of all the pending short orders up there that the Market Makers wish have filled, certainly not the Market Makers themselves! Time at the higher price is needed to acclimate traders and to get them to accept the price is acting very bullish and could go higher, and that this is a good place to enter long positions. And this is why the price will range following a sudden move.

My personal conclusion is that the Market Makers used the release today, with foreknowledge of it and not really caring what it contained anyway, to spike the price upwards. Are they not allowed to spike prices 200 pips a day, even for no reason at all, but to go after price levels where orders sit? Sure they are!

So, that is all that happened. GU is bearish. Today's PA confirms it. And, like the banks that are getting new short orders filled up here, we can too, although holding off until next week before adding more shorts might be prudent. The price might be manipulated even higher. We cannot know how the price will move next.

Please, consider one more conclusion. I am constantly saying we cannot know how price will move next. What I have just talked about is the very reason why. The Market Makers bounce price back and forth to fill large orders they are attracted to in order to make commissions. Certainly some large orders are just too far away, but today is an example that 100-200 pips away is not "too far" for the Market Makers to go after. We cannot know where large orders placed by banks are sitting. Only the Market Makers know that. We cannot know when they will go after them, which release or which "news" event they will use as an excuse (although they really don't need one, but lots of traders flock to trade news and are grist for the mill when the time comes). The Market Makers can put on a 100-200 price spike any damn time they want to because they see good profit for themselves by doing so. We cannot know how price will move next. We need to keep that in mind. We need to trade small relative to our account size if we are trading to build a position over an extended period of time. We need to be able to absorb a 200 pips attack on the average price of our trades and still be able to function normally. Please remember this.

-tah

The RR on this trade is... awesome. Great job Loeil!

Hansma,

Great entry you have there. You demonstrate great patience and selectivity in your trading (unlike myself), a good example for all to follow.

Next week should be the start of something very interesting here, right matey?

Ohh yes . I can not get my finger control. Good weekend.

wow!!!! awesome sir...

EU - probably missed something, don't know yet what exactly and at the moment have no idea what to expect.. But I assume that next week will bring more answers Until I have no clear picture of EU, I just hold my longs.

Thanks Tah,

Added one more long - now waiting for price to get above the spring area before adding more longs to confirm it is accumulation.

H

Agreed with Tah, very good entries I have to learn more patience from you too

hello, please tell me how you view with the iPhone, and what indicators and time you have on it is worth, thanks in advance.

bingo!!!

It's 1.645x, I miss 50 pips.
Next week is the drop? Not sure yet.