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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #41,681
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:29pm Jan 15, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting artocarpus
short 104,5 TP 103 SL 105
S&P500 took out resistance at 1840 which means it could rally to 1900 from here. With it going to 1900 the YEN could go to 106 now. Too early to short in my opinion.QE3 money kicked in today. Good old Ben and Yellen intervention
  • #41,682
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:35pm Jan 15, 2014 12:35pm
But the moves in DAX and SPX are very large compared to the yen crawling around the Weekly Pivot. I, for one, am not buying it, stylinex.

Sold short @ 104.44. I'll move my SL to BE and see what happens. If it rockets higher, I'll kill it and hang my head but my instinct is telling me the longs are rapidly running out of steam.

  • #41,683
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:37pm Jan 15, 2014 12:37pm
Quoting pipBlast
{quote} let me get it, if nikkei goes up=yen goes down, so negative correlation?, i got that right?
Usually the YEN moves first from what I have seen. If the YEN takes a hit Nikkei sees it as as good news as a weaker YEN boosts exports,makes Japanese goods more competitive,boosts tourism into Japan and boosts profits of local companies and manufacturers.

When the Chinese Yuan depreciates the US bitches to China about it hurting their economy and export competitiveness but when the YEN weakens the US turns a blind eye. Why?? Because the US has a base that they would like to keep in Japan lol... Same goes for South Korea.

the US market went up for 5 years in a row and now it is Japan's turn.
  • #41,684
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm Jan 15, 2014 12:47pm
As much people talks about short it go ups.... meh :| i am shorting 104.68 gl to everyone !

Bwt. 103Tp is realy big check weekly chart
  • #41,685
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:08pm Jan 15, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting 3ckune
As much people talks about short it go ups.... meh :| i am shorting 104.68 gl to everyone ! Bwt. 103Tp is realy big check weekly chart
Agree, Short from 104.6X...TP 103.50 / 103.
  • #41,686
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:14pm Jan 15, 2014 1:14pm
Can you be more dumber be selling u/j im constantly peeing in my pans reading all those posts DDDDDD
  • #41,687
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:18pm Jan 15, 2014 1:18pm
cutting my losses. >.<
  • #41,688
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:39pm Jan 15, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting Sergii1
Can you be more dumber be selling u/j im constantly peeing in my pans reading all those posts DDDDDD

strong opinion....
  • #41,689
  • Jan 15, 2014 1:48pm Jan 15, 2014 1:48pm
Quoting Sergii1
Can you be more dumber be selling u/j im constantly peeing in my pans reading all those posts DDDDDD
Hello US/JPY

Still you do not want to get caught in YEN retrace

I cleared out mega longs the other day.

Best decision I made in a long time,

the next day it dived.

This turd can dive again,I been a we bit careful not to over load YEN bus.

Still long but smaller trades to 105.8 TP
  • #41,690
  • Jan 15, 2014 2:36pm Jan 15, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} S&P500 took out resistance at 1840 which means it could rally to 1900 from here. With it going to 1900 the YEN could go to 106 now. Too early to short in my opinion.QE3 money kicked in today. Good old Ben and Yellen intervention
Interesting we reach the same conclusion from different premises. I have just been looking at the chart and thinking that my fear 150 pips ago looks like being at least a 50-50: that they take it up and over for a new high.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #41,691
  • Jan 15, 2014 2:51pm Jan 15, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Interesting we reach the same conclusion from different premises. I have just been looking at the chart and thinking that my fear 150 pips ago looks like being at least a 50-50: that they take it up and over for a new high.
Once that S&P500 goes over 1850 it should sail all the way to 1900. Remember that one article about the guy who bet a huge amount of money on the S&P500 hitting 1900? He had a huge amount on these call options.
  • #41,692
  • Jan 15, 2014 3:12pm Jan 15, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Once that S&P500 goes over 1850 it should sail all the way to 1900. Remember that one article about the guy who bet a huge amount of money on the S&P500 hitting 1900? He had a huge amount on these call options.
I don't remember the article but just because he bought (I'm assuming he bought) 1900 calls doesn't mean he will make money. That depends on the price that he paid and how long they have left to expiry.
But yes, 1900 is possible. I would like to say unlikely but nothing seems unlikely on the upside for these markets.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #41,693
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:07pm Jan 15, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I don't remember the article but just because he bought (I'm assuming he bought) 1900 calls doesn't mean he will make money. That depends on the price that he paid and how long they have left to expiry. But yes, 1900 is possible. I would like to say unlikely but nothing seems unlikely on the upside for these markets.


The general belief is;

In equity, long calls are for amateurs and long puts are for portfolio managers to protect against downside moves of held underlying.

Professional options traders, market makers, hedge funds, and other institutions and funds not barred from selling short are the ones taking the other side.

The win percentage of the second group is overwhelmingly higher. Furthermore, you can replicate anything done on the “long” side with something else on the “short” side with unmatched higher mathematical probabilities of success.

I haven’t seen that story, but my guess is the trader is either hedged, poorly gambling (essentially playing with worse than available odds) or the story is false.
  • #41,694
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:55pm Jan 15, 2014 6:55pm
Lol very quiet in here lately..
  • #41,695
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:15pm Jan 15, 2014 7:15pm
big order block for nikkei and usdjpy at this level (104.8x, 15880)...looking to scale out of longs a bit, and quick to buy a retrace towards 104 figure.

imho, dollar side news tonight will cause this pair to slow down a bit, maybe go sideways...london open will prob be not far from tokyo open.

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  • #41,696
  • Jan 15, 2014 9:39pm Jan 15, 2014 9:39pm
looks like a breakout (?)...
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  • #41,697
  • Jan 16, 2014 12:58am Jan 16, 2014 12:58am
Quoting Rizmeister
Lol very quiet in here lately..
Have to wait for next opportunity. Nothing special going on now. Hard to enter a new position now and hard to short. Need to be patient and wait for an opportunity. Two good opportunities passed already. We had the drop and had the rebound. Don't know how high this rebound will go now.

Realistically the YEN should appreciate and the dollar should drop today or tomorrow for our weekly reversal but European markets are green and so are futures so it is quite a gamble.
  • #41,698
  • Jan 16, 2014 1:09am Jan 16, 2014 1:09am
The 30 minute and 4 hour chart look like they could tank but the 1 hour and daily look like they can spike up.
like flipping a coin now.
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  • #41,699
  • Jan 16, 2014 1:13am Jan 16, 2014 1:13am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Have to wait for next opportunity. Nothing special going on now. Hard to enter a new position now and hard to short. Need to be patient and wait for an opportunity. Two good opportunities passed already. We had the drop and had the rebound. Don't know how high this rebound will go now. Realistically the YEN should appreciate and the dollar should drop today or tomorrow for our weekly reversal but European markets are green and so are futures so it is quite a gamble.
Why is that so?
  • #41,700
  • Jan 16, 2014 1:28am Jan 16, 2014 1:28am
Quoting HunteR23
{quote} Why is that so?
Flip of a coin now. Best to stay out and not enter a trade now unless you are very long and hoping for 110 this year but otherwise it could spike to 106 or drop to 103. S&P 500 could see mid 1850's next week so with a strong S&P 500 the Dollar could rally further.

Why? Just because we see some reversals that take place on Thursday or Fridays of each week. Not all weeks but you can see what happened over the last 9 months. This week was an exception though with a reversal taking place early in the week.
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