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Are support and resistance levels predetermined?

  • #901
  • Jan 15, 2014 4:15am Jan 15, 2014 4:15am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Morning - a couple of things in response. I still have the long open, and will probably leave it until it reaches TP - I have the position hedged by a previous short I had taken - so I'm quite comfortable with it doing what it wants. If I am being a purist with T4F the trade you point out on the chart is not a trade signal - it is a setup signal - T4F is triggered by a fail and a sign on a trend reverse. In this situation you could use that short signal as your stoploss or if your being aggressive reverse the trade to the target you point...
OK understood, is an atypical operation. I have a question about coverage. How many pips you expect the price goes against you for a operation of coverage?
  • #902
  • Edited 6:58am Jan 15, 2014 5:24am | Edited 6:58am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} OK understood, is an atypical operation. I have a question about coverage. How many pips you expect the price goes against you for a operation of coverage?
That's a little bit like how long is piece of string.

I tend to look at any signals on other templates on the opposite side of the trade. So for example - I think there is a bearish signal on the AU T4Y_680 which is targeting 0.8700 - so in theory I am prepared to let it go at least to there - BUT, remember I am hedged, so I am not actually carrying that DD. I will carry the hedge down to 0.8700, but I will also take T5_103 shorts on the way down - this will effectively reduce the overall impact of the hedge by increasing my equity (even though the hedge on the charts and trades remains the same) - so theoretically I could close out having recovered the amount in the hedge (or more) on the trades down. Hope that makes sense.

When price reaches the final target, I have two choices -

Close out everything
or
Look to the original long position to complete (even though it is a long way off).

Factors that help me decide are whether there are any other long signals that have not completed - particularly larger templates (1130 and 680 being the most reliable) and I also look at the overall high time frames PA, SR and TLs (or ichimoku if it's EJ) and see whether we are at a likely S/R point. If I see a head and shoulders, Pbar, engulfing etc - these are not essential but they add a little confluence I will likely look for the price to go back, but I will be watching it carefully until I have other templates confirming we have changed direction.

I did this with EJ last year and it worked really well - I did post a chart with the trades indicated - I'll see if I can trace it.

EDIT
Chart below from 1 Nov 2013 - in the middle of hedged scenario
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Chart below - how it worked out in the end on 24 Nov 2013
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  • #903
  • Jan 15, 2014 6:09am Jan 15, 2014 6:09am
jms how did you manage that eur buy position?
  • #904
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:32am Jan 15, 2014 7:32am
Quoting cemfx
jms how did you manage that eur buy position?
Hi cemfx. The rules of the template T5_1_103 say , that if the price level is 76.4 and the lower phase exceeds the level in 7 pips 38.2 of the current phase , the price should go up 40 pips.

But having given sell signal greater T4Y_680 template , we must take as a trend which indicates this template, so it is quite possible that the input given by the purchasing T5_1_103 FAILS template.

I hope you understand me , I know my English is very bad.
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  • #905
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:42am Jan 15, 2014 7:42am
Quoting hollowhead
Was anyone else in the GU T5_103 short - with my broker it missed the target by 0.2 pips!! Still, if the T4Y_680 signal is valid (which I believe it is, it should hit there again. I think there is also a T4Y_1130 signal long (depending on whether we count last years PA for signal validity, if so) I am expecting/hoping for a good drop down before price reinstates it upward trend.
Got there in the end .
  • #906
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:54am Jan 15, 2014 8:54am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Got there in the end .
Thanks
  • #907
  • Jan 15, 2014 10:40am Jan 15, 2014 10:40am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} Hi cemfx. The rules of the template T5_1_103 say , that if the price level is 76.4 and the lower phase exceeds the level in 7 pips 38.2 of the current phase , the price should go up 40 pips. But having given sell signal greater T4Y_680 template , we must take as a trend which indicates this template, so it is quite possible that the input given by the purchasing T5_1_103 FAILS template. I hope you understand me , I know my English is very bad. {image}


Hi jmss59. I would agree
Staircase down to ride the elevator up.....wait..wait..wait for it
  • #908
  • Jan 15, 2014 10:44am Jan 15, 2014 10:44am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Got there in the end .



Staircase down to ride the elevator up.....wait..wait..wait for it
  • #909
  • Jan 16, 2014 2:15pm Jan 16, 2014 2:15pm
Is anyone else in this EU T5_103 short?
  • #910
  • Jan 16, 2014 9:17pm Jan 16, 2014 9:17pm
Quoting hollowhead
Is anyone else in this EU T5_103 short?
Has the target upside been cancelled at 3730? Or is it still valid?
  • #911
  • Jan 17, 2014 12:51am Jan 17, 2014 12:51am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} Has the target upside been cancelled at 3730? Or is it still valid?
Not sure what you're referring to Jay.

Steve
  • #912
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:27am Jan 17, 2014 2:27am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} Has the target upside been cancelled at 3730? Or is it still valid?
Hi Jay:
Giving sell signal greater template specifically the 680, this overrides the smaller 103 and 220, only taking operations in the direction of the larger template. That is only for SELL
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  • #913
  • Jan 17, 2014 3:16am Jan 17, 2014 3:16am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Not sure what you're referring to Jay. Steve
Ah, I see. I still have that open. jmss59 is right in that the short is the more inline with the immediate trend (according to the T5_680 template). I am seeing it as a pullback in the primary trend which has been up for a while, so I am keeping it open as I believe it will be met after the pullback (however far that goes).
  • #914
  • Jan 17, 2014 7:34am Jan 17, 2014 7:34am
Quoting hollowhead
Is anyone else in this EU T5_103 short?

Closed out on the 23.6%. A few pips early of TP, but I needed to shake it off as I am starting to get a bit more exposed than I would like.

Still, pips is pips.
  • #915
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:01am Jan 17, 2014 8:01am
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Closed out on the 23.6%. A few pips early of TP, but I needed to shake it off as I am starting to get a bit more exposed than I would like. Still, pips is pips.
Great hollwohead
  • #916
  • Jan 17, 2014 8:29am Jan 17, 2014 8:29am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} Great hollwohead

Thanks - I'm still short on the T5_680 trade, but it's a smaller lot size as the DD can theoretically be that much bigger, conversely my T5_103 trades tend to be more aggressive in terms of lot size. It tends to work until you get failed T5_103s and then the DD get's big (like the long EU jaylovin referred to), so the hedge has to be an equal lot size which then leads to significant exposure - I was starting to think it could get to a stage where I would not being able to trade the signals up and down the hedge.
  • #917
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:17am Jan 17, 2014 9:17am
Quoting jmss59
{quote} Hi Jay: Giving sell signal greater template specifically the 680, this overrides the smaller 103 and 220, only taking operations in the direction of the larger template. That is only for SELL {image} {image}

Thanks for the input and observation. I am short the eurusd based on the 680 template.
  • #918
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:34am Jan 17, 2014 9:34am
I would not long this but I was hoping for a spike up to short this. For lower risk.. Looks like it's not going to happen and I've missed the boat.. But it is Friday it might be more range next week... Though I Hope not
  • #919
  • Jan 17, 2014 9:41am Jan 17, 2014 9:41am
Quoting biganc
{quote} Thanks for the input and observation. I am short the eurusd based on the 680 template.
I'm in that one to - but I think we need to keep in mind we only have a few templates of the 64 bobi has developed. He has said he sees EU reaching 1.4455 in 2014 according to a template that is bigger than any we have here (I thinks its 1180 or 1800). Trade what we see, but always aware we don't see everything!!

Best, Steve
  • #920
  • Jan 17, 2014 10:02am Jan 17, 2014 10:02am
Finally reached the expected tp
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