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USD/CAD

  • #4,601
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:58am Jan 14, 2014 6:58am
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-12452
  • #4,602
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:28am Jan 14, 2014 10:28am
Good day,

Evident where the next rejection will be. So - do I enter 50 lots for a short scalp for 10 pips?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadh1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #4,603
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:23am Jan 14, 2014 11:23am
Nice retest of previous high today.

How is it tempting to short? You can do it if you like with tight SL

http://www.myfxbook.com/files/CrazyT...NoO2BpxSxX.png

Ps: 87% traders are shorts
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  • #4,604
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:17pm Jan 14, 2014 12:17pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
Nice retest of previous high today. How is it tempting to short? You can do it if you like with tight SL http://www.myfxbook.com/files/CrazyT...NoO2BpxSxX.png Ps: 87% traders are shorts
Most major banks have projections for 1.14-1.16. I would try to short above 1.1 at least knowing that 87% traders are short.
  • #4,605
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:30pm Jan 14, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} Most major banks have projections for 1.14-1.16. I would try to short above 1.1 at least knowing that 87% traders are short.
That's why I said it's tempting. I don't short bullish market : )
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  • #4,606
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:54pm Jan 14, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Evident where the next rejection will be. So - do I enter 50 lots for a short scalp for 10 pips? {image}
level hit -short for ultimate 1.0870 and 1.0820 tests

Regards
  • #4,607
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:05pm Jan 14, 2014 1:05pm
tomorrow = 1.10
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  • #4,608
  • Jan 14, 2014 2:51pm Jan 14, 2014 2:51pm
UC Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC Daily.png Size: 37 KB
  • #4,609
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:13pm Jan 14, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
tomorrow = 1.10
1.10 is Likely , this is why i place another small sell limit @1.10 SL @1.12 no TP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly.png Size: 107 KB


it's a bullish market but is too tempting !
  • #4,610
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:24pm Jan 14, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting pcca-matrix
{quote} 1.10 is Likely , this is why i place another small sell limit @1.10 SL @1.12 no TP {image} it's a bullish market but is too tempting !
I was talking about that temptation earlier on this thread ; )

Nice chart... but I would say it looks like more a bearish Harmonic where the second wing is in formation.
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  • #4,611
  • Jan 14, 2014 3:51pm Jan 14, 2014 3:51pm
Some key points at USDCAD, tho every year from 2009 we have decent amount of rally/drops in pips perspective (not considering 2009 itself), taking into account whole fundamentals i'd say it has potential for more upside. Tho my own analysis before the end of 2013 was quite bearish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_D1_14(1).jpg Size: 281 KB
  • #4,612
  • Jan 14, 2014 4:27pm Jan 14, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting xau
Some key points at USDCAD, tho every year from 2009 we have decent amount of rally/drops in pips perspective (not considering 2009 itself), taking into account whole fundamentals i'd say it has potential for more upside. Tho my own analysis before the end of 2013 was quite bearish. {image}
I have never though about pointing highest & lowest price per year into a chart like that. Nice and valuable chart.

We see that the recent upside is just the beginning... Enjoy long pips being long.
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  • #4,613
  • Jan 14, 2014 6:37pm Jan 14, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting xau
Some key points at USDCAD, tho every year from 2009 we have decent amount of rally/drops in pips perspective (not considering 2009 itself), taking into account whole fundamentals i'd say it has potential for more upside. Tho my own analysis before the end of 2013 was quite bearish. {image}

Looks like it's now heading to 1.125 and subsequently a retracement down to 1.0736 is possible. In normal circumstances I wouldn't have believed this could happen. Canada is still a triple A country. Major interests and forces driving this move up.
  • #4,614
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:28pm Jan 14, 2014 7:28pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} Looks like it's now heading to 1.125 and subsequently a retracement down to 1.0736 is possible. In normal circumstances I wouldn't have believed this could happen. Canada is still a triple A country. Major interests and forces driving this move up.
I have no doubt there are major players pushing this up
BoC is one of them I think. They want to "cheapen" the cost of labor in Canada (compared to the US, their biggest trading partner) to bring back to the manufacturing sector like it was in 2001 when the rate was around 1.50
The problem is the manufacturing industry left for Mexico and China and won't come back because of a small spike in the rate.

I am going to guess it will keep going to 1.20 by Jan 2015
  • #4,615
  • Jan 14, 2014 7:38pm Jan 14, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Sherpa
{quote} I have no doubt there are major players pushing this up BoC is one of them I think. They want to "cheapen" the cost of labor in Canada (compared to the US, their biggest trading partner) to bring back to the manufacturing sector like it was in 2001 when the rate was around 1.50 The problem is the manufacturing industry left for Mexico and China and won't come back because of a small spike in the rate. I am going to guess it will keep going to 1.20 by Jan 2015
I agree. I expect 1.1 today as on Thursday USD will weaken
  • #4,616
  • Jan 14, 2014 8:59pm Jan 14, 2014 8:59pm
Look at the Volumes from June-July (especially July 29-31), they were very high at that point compared to last 2 months. So I am thinking that lots of longs were bought at the 1.02 range, there may be a correction soon.

Also I just saw this article on Goldman Sachs
http://www.efxnews.com/story/21848/g...-coming-months

Just remember that they have a long history of taking the opposite side as their clients so this could also be them pushing it up if they were behind the large buys in the summer
  • #4,617
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:15pm Jan 14, 2014 10:15pm
looking very tempting to short usd/cad at 1.0975 as there is strong resistance 1.0984 but sure the market will try to push above 1.0xx going maybe at 1.1200 for a pullback then.
  • #4,618
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:55pm Jan 14, 2014 10:55pm
I'm out of Ideas here

All targets met... I think 1.10 is probable due to a magnetic attraction of financial instruments to round numbers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC Daily.png Size: 39 KB
  • #4,619
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:59pm Jan 14, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting JimmyC
I'm out of Ideas here All targets met, I'm out of ideas here... I think 1.10 is probable due to a magnetic attraction of financial instruments to round numbers. {image}
market love round numbers and this one is important, may be there many buy orders lying at 1.0xx area,
im very tempted to short it but still not any bearish signal, RSI and many indicators say the party may continue to 1.150 at least.
  • #4,620
  • Jan 15, 2014 3:48am Jan 15, 2014 3:48am
Quoting Greener
{quote} Looks like it's now heading to 1.125 and subsequently a retracement down to 1.0736 is possible. In normal circumstances I wouldn't have believed this could happen. Canada is still a triple A country. Major interests and forces driving this move up.
That's for sure, question is when we will see revision of these triple A's. This could cause some troubles, taking into account that BoC was ready into further rate cuts, and other issues. But BoC said it has no pressure for these levels yet, question is until when?

"Somebody once described a consensus as something that ‘everyone agrees to
say collectively that no-one believes individually.’ Given the relatively high level
of market unanimity over FX trades this year (we are no exception), it is high
time for a sanity check"
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