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Sonic R. System

  • #64,041
  • Edited 9:09am Jan 14, 2014 8:29am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting qFish
UJ: Closed half of my scouts in a loss as I came near my SL. Thought price broke 103, but was false. Re-added with some breathing room. Now working back towards break even and targeting net profit. We'll see. Still working out the kinks. Just at a more volatile point than I thought. {image}
UJ: All scouts closed. Total pips banked: 48 x 47.5pips = 2280 pips. Previous closed scouts loss at -1626 pips (23 scouts worth). Total net of +654 pips. I consider this trade around a break even trade (although I had a net gain). If I had not closed half of my positions before, I would have netted around 1000 pips by now. So almost a 40 percent reduction in what I would have had. But it was due to a faulty break below what I considered the major support.
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Now just waiting for re-entry based on where it goes from here.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #64,042
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:00am Jan 14, 2014 9:00am
Quoting loeil
{quote} Same thought here.. {image} Some sort of building.. {image} Closer.. {image}
AU - long.. Decided to start adding positions.
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #64,043
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:06am Jan 14, 2014 9:06am
Quoting traderathome
EURAUD Long Trade Opened: Having just made the post above, I re-examined M1, and while I was doing so the price started to be whacked with increasing volume, whacked below MS1. This is a PVSRA indication the bulls are working to accumulate long positions. So, I gather the preparations for a retrace move upwards have begun, and I made some entries as the price was pushed down, not waiting for a Classic long setup. Will this hurt me? Time will tell. {image} {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURAUD Long Trade Update: Added longs #7-15 when I saw the price drop towards the half number SR and then into the area between it and DS1. Recap: WEEK is bearish and another good run down could happen. A bull retrace (a nice one) could happen first. That leads us to why the market makers might be now accumulating long orders by pushing the price lower to advantage themselves. PVSRA indicates the MMs are bulls. A nice bull retrace could be setting up, but trading it long will be the lesser of the two potential trades. After the retrace, during which the MMs will be accumulating shorts, might come another very substantial bear run. The LS might turn this PA into a Double Bottom, for additional opportunities to accumulate long orders. Time will tell. {image} {image}
EURAUD Long Trade Closed:

Set TP, which was reached. Trade closed for 920 pips gain.
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  • #64,044
  • Edited 9:34am Jan 14, 2014 9:13am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting traderathome
AU Short Trade Opened: Price made it into the SR area. It could go higher, but here is where my first short Scout has been entered. If it goes higher and I am still awake, I might add another short Scout. No TP, SL at this time. {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Short Trade Update: Added short #2, a pre-LS Classic. The LS could see the price back up in the SR area. We can not know how price will move next, nor when trends will reverse, but if the market makers do push the price back up in an attempt at accumulating more short orders, that will present additional opportunities to enter or build a short trade. {image}
AU Short Trade Closed:

Set TP, which was reached. Trade closed for 120 pips gain.
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  • #64,045
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:22am Jan 14, 2014 9:22am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} EURAUD Long Trade Closed: Set TP, which was reached. Trade closed for 920 pips gain. {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} AU Short Trade Closed: Set TP, which was reached. Trade closed for 120 pips gain. {image}
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #64,046
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:27am Jan 14, 2014 9:27am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} EURAUD Long Trade Closed: Set TP, which was reached. Trade closed for 920 pips gain. {image}
Excellent!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #64,047
  • Edited 10:03am Jan 14, 2014 9:29am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade Opened: I have been looking for the market makers to push the price up between PVT and half number SR (or even RDH). The LS opened with a push up thru the whole number SR. I decided to make first short entry here, a Scout, because I can not know how the price will move next. If it goes higher, I can add another Scout if I want to. No TP/SL at this time.{image} Well, the market makers did continue the push. I added shorts #3-4, Scouts. I am wondering if the push will continue while I remain awake a while longer.{image} Looks...
GU Short Trade Update:

Before going to bed, I set a pending short order (short entry #6) near the half number SR, per my original guesstimate as to how high the market makers might push the price in their attempt to accumulate short orders. It executed. Still no TP or SL. Will give this more time to see if downside becomes aggressive or if ranging (enhances MMs ability to accumulate orders) ensues.
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The US MMs continue the push up. Nobody manipulates prices the way the US MMs do when they really smell profits and go after accumulating positions ahead of a planned move. I added short entry #7 as they pushed the price well into what I considered the upper S&R area.
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  • #64,048
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:29am Jan 14, 2014 9:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Nostalgia Long Trade Closed: Added long Scouts #13-21 since last post. Adjusted TP. Trade closed yesterday for 1,680 pips gain. {image}
Tah, I'm gonna give you a cookie for this one.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #64,049
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:32am Jan 14, 2014 9:32am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade Update: Before going to bed, I set a pending short order (short entry #6) near the half number SR, per my original guesstimate as to how high the market makers might push the price in their attempt to accumulate short orders. It executed. Still no TP or SL. Will give this more time to see if downside becomes aggressive or if ranging (enhances MMs ability to accumulate orders) ensues. {image}
The indy has become quite beautiful Tah. Tells us so much more about our trades in addition to our current ones. Good job on the refinements.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #64,050
  • Jan 14, 2014 9:53am Jan 14, 2014 9:53am
AU Comment

My M15 short trade was of the retrace shown on H4. Now that the retrace move is active, the question becomes how low will it go. I closed the short trade already, and indeed the retrace might have already put in it's lows. We cannot know how the price will move next, nor when trends will reverse, but the thing I am looking for now is to see if the Market Makers keep the price low for awhile, to accumulate long orders, and to see the interplay of price, S&R and volume to gauge where to make an initial long entry for the next move higher (if there is to be one). If the MMs are accumulating long orders then surely they will make a double bottom out of the M15, or make a sudden push even lower. But then, maybe not. Well, the week is young, so let's see what happens.

-tah
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  • #64,051
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:10am Jan 14, 2014 10:10am
Quoting traderathome
EURAUD Comment I am stalking this for a trade. The WEEK chart is quite bearish. I'd expect more downside, but also I suspect the MMs will push the price up a ways first, to accumulate new short orders before the next run lower. The M15 chart shows the price has already retraced back up to the whole number SR, but there is little volume which tells me the MMs are looking for higher prices before they jump in strongly. Either the PVT or the upper half number might be the target the MMs have for the retrace. Time will tell. It is early in the week....
EURAUD Comment( Continued)

So now we've had a retrace begun, and maybe near finished. That depends on if the MMs desire to accumulate more short orders now that they've got the price up here, which I suspect they do. I am looking for price, S&R and volume interplay to try and gauge when might be a good time to consider my first entry into a short trade for what I imagine will be the next move down following what I consider to be a retrace purposely put on by the MMs to get more shorts for the next move down.
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  • #64,052
  • Jan 14, 2014 10:48am Jan 14, 2014 10:48am
EU Comment

You can see there has been a hefty amount of trading above the PVT today, starting with the Market Maker's push up because they desired higher prices, which means they are sellers. And so they, and the rest of the trading community has had plenty of opportunity to build short today.

PA has started a waveform that could develop into a Classic SonicR short setup, albeit with an entry zone created outside of the LS. If this happens, I might add to my own short trade anyway. This pair is highly manipulated; not so much as gold, and certainly not so much as the "Thieves of Wall Street" manipulate the prices of stocks, ETFs and all manner of bull shit derivatives they conjure up to increase their opportunities to steal money from others. Yes, EU is highly manipulated, though, compared to other forex pairs, and therefore it is possible a planned surprise move "after hours" could happen. We cannot know how price will move next.
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  • #64,053
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:00am Jan 14, 2014 11:00am
AU Long Trade Opened:

Entered long #1, Scout.

The Market Makers have dropped the price back towards the lows of the day, into what I consider a S&R area. Even on M1 notable activity is not appearing, so if the MMs are accumulating longs, they are spreading out their buys to hide the fact, and the price could be pushed even lower by them. We cannot know how the price will move next, but this seems a decent place to start a long trade. If the MMs push the price lower, and if in doing so there are PVSRA signs indicating they are bulls, then I might add another long Scout.
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  • #64,054
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:33am Jan 14, 2014 11:33am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Short Trade Update: Added short #9, Scout. No TP, SL yet. {image}
UChf Short Trade Closed:

Added shorts #10-12 since last post. Today adjusted TP and trade closed for 480 pips gain.
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  • #64,055
  • Jan 14, 2014 11:51am Jan 14, 2014 11:51am
Quoting traderathome
EURAUD Comment I am stalking this for a trade. The WEEK chart is quite bearish. I'd expect more downside, but also I suspect the MMs will push the price up a ways first, to accumulate new short orders before the next run lower. The M15 chart shows the price has already retraced back up to the whole number SR, but there is little volume which tells me the MMs are looking for higher prices before they jump in strongly. Either the PVT or the upper half number might be the target the MMs have for the retrace. Time will tell. It is early in the week....
EURAUD Short Trade Opened:

Entered short #1, Scout.

The retrace has taken the price to a half number level, and depending on where you set your FR points, it is a very good retrace indeed. And the interplay of price, S&R and volume give a PVSRA indication the MMs are bears. We cannot know how price will move next, but this seems a decent place to begin a short trade. If the MMs push the price sufficiently higher, and with more PVSRA indications confirming they are bears, then I might add another short Scout.
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  • #64,056
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:40pm Jan 14, 2014 12:40pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GJ Short Trade Update: Since last post I've added shorts #11-13, one Classic and two Scouts. {image}
GJ Short Trade Closed:

Changed TP and trade closed yesterday for 4,892 pips gain. Not what I hoped for given the time in this one, but I still have my original older PVSRA GJ short trade running. Added shorts #14-27 since previous post on this one. I do expect this retrace today is just the Market Makers manipulating the price upwards to accumulate more short positions ahead of a whopping move down. Yesterday, I was thinking the price was already close to RWL and that a retrace might be coming, but I had no idea it would be for 200+ pips. Just goes to show how manipulating the MMs can be. I intend to watch PA up where it is now, for a possible new short entry, but not build such a large trade.
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  • #64,057
  • Jan 14, 2014 12:58pm Jan 14, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURAUD Short Trade Opened: Entered short #1, Scout. The retrace has taken the price to a half number level, and depending on where you set your FR points, it is a very good retrace indeed. And the interplay of price, S&R and volume give a PVSRA indication the MMs are bears. We cannot know how price will move next, but this seems a decent place to begin a short trade. If the MMs push the price sufficiently higher, and with more PVSRA indications confirming they are bears, then I might add another short Scout. {image}
EURAUD Short Trade Updated:

Added short #2, Scout, as the after hours MMs moved the price a bit higher to the FR 79% retrace level.

I would have added this to the original post to save on the number of posts in this thread, but the damned FF Home Page keeps coming up instead of my pics. file every time I attempt to add this pic. to the previous post.

Forex Factory, if you can, please fix this damned problem!

-tah
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  • #64,058
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:13pm Jan 14, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Bullish PB spotted.. Sonic {image}
Quoting loeil
{quote} AU - long.. Decided to start adding positions. {image}
This is the reason why I'm not taking one big lot trade

Never now when the real move starts..
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Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #64,059
  • Jan 14, 2014 1:40pm Jan 14, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting loeil
{quote} {quote} This is the reason why I'm not taking one big lot trade Never now when the real move starts.. {image} {image}
1 lot for sonic is seen as 0.01 lot
Take what the market gives you.
  • #64,060
  • Edited 2:03pm Jan 14, 2014 1:46pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting loeil
{quote} {quote} This is the reason why I'm not taking one big lot trade Never now when the real move starts.. {image} {image}
loeil,

I agree with you. Because we cannot know how the price will move next, there is no sense in putting all the eggs into one basket. It makes sense to put one small egg in, and as price reveals more opportunities, put more eggs in at better prices. If by the time the price certainly has been revealed, if not all the eggs have been used up, simply put them in then.

With this pair, the MMs could easily take the price even lower, maybe to the half number, or to the 1/4 number, or even back down to the lower whole number. We simply cannot know how far opposite the direction of an anticipated move the MMs might take the price in their attempts to accumulate positions they will make a profit on when that move happens. So, pick what seems to be decent levels to partake of, but don't put everything in right off the bat!

PVSRA is a great analysis technique, but our improvement in using it entails that we become more aware of how the market works. Read that as becoming more aware of the fact that Market Makers manipulate prices and where they might manipulate them to.

-tah
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