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Simple, Non-subjective, Consistent, Effective

  • #181
  • Edited 6:03am Jan 14, 2014 5:49am | Edited 6:03am
Hi .., updated trade today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: imagem 01 USDCAD H1.png Size: 25 KB


JVBS

PS: We need more people to put your trades so that everyone can see.
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #182
  • Jan 15, 2014 3:18am Jan 15, 2014 3:18am
OK, here's another example from me:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xau_usdh4.png Size: 20 KB


Three consecutive engulfing patterns, four if you consider the continuation bar that engulfs the small pause bar. All engulfs close below the open price of the day they happen. The first one does not trigger a trade, however it still serves as indication, adding weight to the downside bias.
  • #183
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:03am Jan 15, 2014 5:03am
Quoting Ap3
Hello. I'd like to share a strategy that adheres to the principles of being simple, non-subjective, consistent, and most importantly effective. If a trading strategy is not based on sound ideals it is doomed from the start, no matter how many indicators or filters you throw at it. Beginners please understand this. This thread is open to all, and I encourage both beginners and pros to participate. One of the benefits of the above four principles is that anyone can learn the mechanics of the system quickly, because it is not complicated. This does...
Sorry re the long quote, was hoping it would include the screenshot too.

Things to consider:
1. Premise is basically sound: add to winning positions
2. Needs a filter such as only open a second position once P1 is at 1:1 and breakeven otherwise sideways choppy markets will result in you opening opening opening and closing them all at a loss, which is not what you want to do - see EU maybe yesterday.
3. Your chart shows opening during DEC25 - er no, no idea how you got that on your chart, the markets weren't open.
4. You show entries during all market sessions - this is untradeable by a human being that unfortunately has to eat, sleep and have a life, probably go to work etc.
5. Same with the trade management - you can't just look every hour and see if 1:1 etc has been reached as those levels are not going to tick in a mechanical fashion like that, which means screen watching 24/7
6. Which brings us to 6, which is if it's totally mechanical with no discreation an EA could trade it, Caveat: ALL EAs lose money without fail, ergo discretion IS involved.
  • #184
  • Jan 15, 2014 5:24am Jan 15, 2014 5:24am
nunrgguy, if I may add some thoughts on your comment:

4. Setups exist during all sessions (on a side note - I would be VERY suspicious if they didn't). This does not imply you need to take all of them. Hence, there's absolutely no problem to trade in this manner.
5. Same with the trade management - there's no need to move the stops at the exact moment the price hit 1:1 or some other level. Open the platform, check positions. Did the price actually reach your milestone? Yes? Then manage the positions. Unless the price moved back past your intended stop-loss level. In this case, just leave it. Totally doable. Oh, and it won't hinder your performance. If anything, missing some opportunities will actually reduce your losses. Granted, you WILL miss some good entries as well, but overall your results will be about the same, if not better. Plus, you don't get to monitor the markets 24/7, so you will not be nearly as stressed as if you want to catch each and every setup out there.
  • #185
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 15, 2014 6:23am | Edited 9:11am
EU Short (hrly)...recently filled. Initially targeting weekly and monthly lows.

Edit: Now @1:1 and happy to move stop to b/e.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AP3EUH1entry.PNG Size: 44 KB
Attached Image
  • #186
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:54am Jan 15, 2014 7:54am
AP3,

I don t know if this has been talked about before. I don t recall reading anything about it.

Say the trend is clearly up. So we are looking for buys on the 1 hre chart. There is a short pullback of not one, but TWO down bars of say, medium size. If the next bar is engulfing only the second of the down (red) bars, is it a valid signal? Or does it have to engulf BOTH of the previous down bars?
Thanks.

Insider
  • #187
  • Jan 15, 2014 12:05pm Jan 15, 2014 12:05pm
Quoting Barbossa
nunrgguy, if I may add some thoughts on your comment: 4. Setups exist during all sessions (on a side note - I would be VERY suspicious if they didn't). This does not imply you need to take all of them. Hence, there's absolutely no problem to trade in this manner. 5. Same with the trade management - there's no need to move the stops at the exact moment the price hit 1:1 or some other level. Open the platform, check positions. Did the price actually reach your milestone? Yes? Then manage the positions. Unless the price moved back past your intended...
Just adding some debate - I'm not saying the idea is 'wrong' AT ALL btw , only trading above or below the open is as old as the hills and a standard method of the fellow whos indicator has been renamed for some reason. But common sense prevails.
  • #188
  • Edited 4:55pm Jan 15, 2014 4:14pm | Edited 4:55pm
These were my trades today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H1 01.png Size: 20 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY H 1 01.png Size: 27 KB


Two other trades USDJPY still open, but they are already at zero to zero

JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #189
  • Edited Jan 16, 2014 7:38am Jan 15, 2014 4:54pm | Edited Jan 16, 2014 7:38am
Quoting Barbossa
OK, here's another example from me: {image} Three consecutive engulfing patterns, four if you consider the continuation bar that engulfs the small pause bar. All engulfs close below the open price of the day they happen. The first one does not trigger a trade, however it still serves as indication, adding weight to the downside bias.
OK, there's some confusion here I feel - in post one it says you're going to trade with both the daily and weekly trend: "The goal is to stack H1 and H4 positions in the direction of the daily and weekly trend" but then only mentions trading above/below the daily open in the checklist.

Now, how are you defining trend - also above/below the weekly open? Because, if so, on your gold example the OBs in some of those red boxes are from the weekly high, above the weekly open and back into the open i.e. if you're entering with weekly direction they're not entries, the later one you've marked would be: could you clarify on daily and weekly open please? Ta

Also, if it's none subjective the rules/checklist need to be crystal clear. Another example if you like - you say one of the gold bars did not trigger: I don't know this is subjective: with a 1 pip past bar trigger on a past bid chart there really is no idea if the ask hit that trigger or not. The stop placement is subjective too (10 pips below the bar or previous swing low I think you said) - so there's a choice, also dependent on timeframe being observed H1 or H4? Stop below previous H4 swing, or stop below previous H4 bar or previous H1 swing?: it's subjective. And then you said something like (going from memory) that after 3:1 I think it was trail your stop as you see fit - OK, again that's subjective.And again re being prudent not buying selling into certain lines - subjective at point of entry, no hard and fast rule.

I'm just stating all this as it is early days for the thread which has in its title 'none subjective' and yet it is anything but. You also state that things will play out long term and that certain near term criterion will average out: blanket statement and opinion presented as fact unless you have data to back it up. Also helps if the two losing trades from the day before are noted: not getting on your case but don't, please, at this early stage start cherry picking
  • #190
  • Jan 15, 2014 7:19pm Jan 15, 2014 7:19pm
Hi ...,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Imagem AUDUSD H1 02.png Size: 16 KB


update of this trade in USD / JPY is doing great

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: imagem USDJPY H1 update.png Size: 14 KB


JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #191
  • Jan 15, 2014 8:02pm Jan 15, 2014 8:02pm
Can anyone give the answer to post 186???

Insider
  • #192
  • Jan 16, 2014 3:44am Jan 16, 2014 3:44am
Quoting sidefx
EU Short (hrly)...recently filled. Initially targeting weekly and monthly lows. Edit: Now @1:1 and happy to move stop to b/e. {image} {image}
Update, stopped out @b/e overnight.
  • #193
  • Jan 16, 2014 4:03am Jan 16, 2014 4:03am
Quoting insider999
Can anyone give the answer to post 186??? Insider
The minimum setup is a 1 bar/candle engulf. Multi-bar engulfs aren't unusual of course.
  • #194
  • Jan 16, 2014 5:35am Jan 16, 2014 5:35am
Quoting jvbs
Hi ..., {image} update of this trade in USD / JPY is doing great {image} JVBS
Hi...,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY H 1 01 updating.png Size: 11 KB


JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #195
  • Jan 16, 2014 7:13am Jan 16, 2014 7:13am
..UJ has broken market flow down on the daily TF, so i'll try a CT short on the hrly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #196
  • Jan 16, 2014 9:00am Jan 16, 2014 9:00am
Quoting jvbs
{quote} Hi..., {image} JVBS
Hi .., update on USD / JPY.
Was not present when it happened the engolf down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: imagem USDJPY H1 update 01.png Size: 9 KB


JVBS
Work very hard until you get there (excuse my english)
  • #197
  • Jan 16, 2014 8:13pm Jan 16, 2014 8:13pm
Hi jvbs,

Do u mostly take trades off the hourly time frame..its good to see u doing well...i think Ap3 also talks about the size of the engulfers in one of the posts...i mean the engulfing candle should engulf a decent size candle or bar..4hr charts tend to give better signal i think but it depends since u have stated that at times ur too busy with work...i just wanted to know how u set profit targets, i have just set up a micro account and kind of not really looking to let trades run but wana take decent profits so that i can build profits and then trade a bit bigger.


Regards

Dennis
  • #198
  • Jan 17, 2014 2:50am Jan 17, 2014 2:50am
Quoting nunrgguy
{quote} OK, there's some confusion here I feel - in post one it says you're going to trade with both the daily and weekly trend: "The goal is to stack H1 and H4 positions in the direction of the daily and weekly trend" but then only mentions trading above/below the daily open in the checklist. Now, how are you defining trend - also above/below the weekly open? Because, if so, on your gold example the OBs in some of those red boxes are from the weekly high, above the weekly open and back into the open i.e. if you're entering with weekly direction...

What I'm going to say is only my view, so don't take it as "part of the system". It might be, or it might not be. Also, pardon me if your questions were not targeted at me, but I got that impression since you quoted my post.

For me, the weekly trend is my target, not my guideline. I intend to enter from H1/H4 in the daily direction (that is - buys above the daily open, sells below it). I'm not trying to predict the weekly trend, I'm looking for opportunities to join it, sometimes at the very start of the movement. It is subjective, I agree. On the Gold chart I posted, I saw enough reason for me to try an entry. Upwards movement has stalled and sellers have pushed down a number of times. This may or may not lead to a downward move - I don't know before it happens. But if it happens, I want to be already in. Again, that's only my take. If you don't feel comfortable trading against the weekly, then by all means don't do it. You can apply the same 'buy above open, sell below it' rule to the weekly candle as well. It's up to you. It's a subjectivity that can't be avoided, because you need to be comfortable with your trades. You need to trust your trades. And we all have different views, different comfort zones, etc.

On your question about triggering a trade - the author recommended using a 10-pip buffer for the pending orders. While this aims to catch only the moves that happen with momentum, it also serves to protect you from 'invalid' fills, unless your spread is bigger than 10 pips. If that is the case, you can simply extend the buffer, or change broker.

About the stops - the stops are a bit subjective as well, for the same reason. However, in my opinion you should always use the time-frame that provides the setup/entry as a source for the stop placement. The reason is that H1 has 4 times as many bars as H4 does. That means (on average) 4 times as many setups. While you don't take them all, you'll still end up taking more entries than you would if you traded H4. If you used H4 to place your stops, the result would be exactly the same as if you simply placed more trades (on other words - if you overtraded) on the H4. Your losses would grow significantly, while your profits would remain about the same.
  • #199
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:32am Jan 17, 2014 4:32am
Quoting sidefx
..UJ has broken market flow down on the daily TF, so i'll try a CT short on the hrly. {image}
Still short UJ but stop now at b/e.
  • #200
  • Jan 17, 2014 4:36am Jan 17, 2014 4:36am
Quoting Barbossa
{quote} What I'm going to say is only my view, so don't take it as "part of the system". It might be, or it might not be. Also, pardon me if your questions were not targeted at me, but I got that impression since you quoted my post. For me, the weekly trend is my target, not my guideline. I intend to enter from H1/H4 in the daily direction (that is - buys above the daily open, sells below it). I'm not trying to predict the weekly trend, I'm looking for opportunities to join it, sometimes at the very start of the movement. It is subjective, I agree....
Hi Barbossa.

That really doesn't make sense and I'll tell you why:

The first post says in the direction of the daily AND the weekly 'trend'. It defines trend by above or below the open. The issue is then compounded by as you say joining on the hourly or the 4 hourly - are you sticking to just one of these or using both because if using both you have another issue. i.e. you see a large bar on H4 close above the daily open, you go long. Now you only have 20 hours, maximum for that to play out before the new day starts, in that time all you've see on H4 is inside bars, then there's an outside bar below the daily open the next day - unless the weekly open is there as a filter it's not going to work. Also as I mentioned too if you're going to use both H1 and H4, you'll often end up opening an H1 trade, just about getting it to BE, then see an H4 OB, open again, with a stop further away than your B/E - in terms of market movement this is illogical. Big bars often have pullback to the area of near term s/d and if you entered on the H1 and it does so I can almost guarantee it will stop out, so you're not 'stacking' at all.

Re entry fills - the OP does not say to use a 10 pips buffer on entries at all - he says to use a 1 pip buffer, 10 pips is the additional buffer on your stop. Therefore, hindsight charts, which the thread will have plenty of, showing entries which weren't hit, will be, frankly BS.

Iin your post above you say, paraphrasing, joining the weekly trend before it happens: I think you need to define trend here because I'm sure the people who were long above the weekly open and are still holding would imagine that trend is up and it already happened. Or is trend now being defined by a larger timescale and a trendline? In which case say in the case of gold, it's been up for 3 weeks including this week, also with an OB in the weekly so shorts above the weekly open are a short term retrace play, with the probability of them turning into a trend being fairly low (this is purely opinion of course ).

If you're not planning on holding over the weekend, with this kind of method you've 2 options and 2 options only - breakout from the open (with the trend), or retrace from the extreme, back towards the open, that's it. There is no trend. Whic is why I say what is your definition of trend if the open is the reference.?

Also re the gold trade - OK. So you weren't already long from before and holding those trades? If you regularly trade that market...why not?

There's a few other areas in previous posts where opinion on results is being stated as fact, when it is PURELY opinion with no way of backing it up without knowing how certain trades were managed and what the outcome was....

LOL. All I'm saying is that the entire thing IS subjective and is being presented as not: even the rules (as is usual on FF) are not crystal clear.
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