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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #7,421
  • Jan 12, 2014 10:25am Jan 12, 2014 10:25am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Good Morning Traders, Thank you for your concerns, I am never far away. I have been studying for my series 3 test and have been dedicating my time to that. My test date is the 22 of Jan so I will be hitting the books hard next week as well. I will be back after the 22 to post more actively and to pick up where we have left off. I thank all of you for your dedication and your willingness to help each other out. I will go back and review the post and address anything that needs to be addressed. In the mean time keep up the good work and continue to...
We waited teacher, good exam and a better return you
  • #7,422
  • Jan 12, 2014 1:15pm Jan 12, 2014 1:15pm
Some potential patterns for the week.
Ba-Bat, Bu-Butterfly, 3dr- 3drives, Ww-Wolfe wave etc...

Does anybody happen to have a script to collect and report in a file the closest Sup/Dem levels for each time frame?
Tnx.
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  • #7,423
  • Jan 12, 2014 1:39pm Jan 12, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello, I'm not sure what your experience level is with these advanced patterns or how many variations of them you trade so I may be speaking out of context here in your case but is a deep crab really? I have been trading Harmonics for a long time to include these patterns and it amazes me how people just make up patterns there is a whole crap load of useless formations that people have made up and call them patterns. How do you validate a regular crab from a deep crab for example? What invalidates one from the other other than point D? How...
wow
take a look
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #7,424
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:11pm Jan 12, 2014 2:11pm
Quoting samansadeghi
{quote} wow take a look {image}
Do you have a point? I can show you hundred of publication but does change anything? The point is not everything is worth trading. Stick to the basics it tends to be more profitable. Next time please make your point so we can hav and intelligent conversation or debate about the topic or issue. Thanks.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #7,425
  • Jan 12, 2014 2:44pm Jan 12, 2014 2:44pm
Interesting thread. Only on page 4. Are there any pages I can jump to to catch up a little faster?
  • #7,426
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:11pm Jan 12, 2014 5:11pm
Quoting iak
Interesting thread. Only on page 4. Are there any pages I can jump to to catch up a little faster?
welcome, no short cuts bro - in fact if you start understanding this you will most likely re read the thread multiple times. its real chart reading no indicators, really something special

I would recommend going to "dcastfx" in youtube and watching all the videos a couple times before you get started
  • #7,427
  • Jan 12, 2014 5:13pm Jan 12, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting iak
Interesting thread. Only on page 4. Are there any pages I can jump to to catch up a little faster?
Heres a pdf i made a while ago, I hope you find it useful. I find myself often looking at mr pips charts, in the pdf, just to practice sometimes also to get inspired. There's some new ones that came after I made it that I haven't included, but not many.

The last page is also good, its about getting tick data and setting up ninjatrader.

And the next best two resources are mr pips videos. The first link is his newest stuff, and the second link is from early on in the thread.
Its fun and it can be really profitable! Have fun

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw8CjBPrQlRH7jbiRbQcc1w/videos

http://www.youtube.com/user/DCASTFX
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Ratios and Harmonics - a Different Way to Trade.pdf   1.0 MB | 1,821 downloads
  • #7,428
  • Jan 12, 2014 8:48pm Jan 12, 2014 8:48pm
Quoting Starry
{quote} Heres a pdf i made a while ago, I hope you find it useful. I find myself often looking at mr pips charts, in the pdf, just to practice sometimes also to get inspired. There's some new ones that came after I made it that I haven't included, but not many. The last page is also good, its about getting tick data and setting up ninjatrader. And the next best two resources are mr pips videos. The first link is his newest stuff, and the second link is from early on in the thread. Its fun and it can be really profitable! Have fun http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw8CjBPrQlRH7jbiRbQcc1w/videos...
Thanks!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #7,429
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:08pm Jan 12, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Yes Traders please use a stop loss very expose yourself with out protecting your position. In the long run you will get crushed. It's always better to live to fight another day.

Hello Mr. Pip,

Thank you for starting this thread and for your insights.

I have a problem with stops. I understand the conventional wisdom and I have lived by it in all my prior trading expeditions. When I worked at a brokerage in the '80s & '90s, I advised my clients to use stops always. I get it. But my research now indicates that stops don't do what people think they do. They don't actually reduce risk, when used as most people use them. They increase risk.

I believe that a huge factor of market action is stop-running behavior. The folks who have a lot of money can cause brief 'side-trips' in market action, deflections from the 'true' course of the market, so as to hit stops and so be able to take on new positions at great prices. They use the individual trader's fear of loss as a weapon against them, forcing them out of their positions at losses so that they can take the opposite side of the stop trade. This is actually pretty easy, since most people tend to put stops in similar locations.

Consider USDCHF on 1/9 @ 13:20. The market often does these very rapid spikes, and then returns to course. To me, this was obvious, The wealthy traders had figured out by then that the market was heavily overbought, and so they switched to short. But they don't want to take their short positions down at 90800, they wanted to get short at 91200 or above, where the previous max high was. So they knew that there was a lot of continuing public bullish sentiment (FF showed about 60% bullish at the time) so they used that pent-up sentiment, along with a large amount of their own money (buying), to drive the market up to the top.

The little people who had been short put their stops (like always) just at or near the max high (91200). Their stops got hit. When these stops got hit, the savvy rich traders then go massively short, taking the opposite side of the buy stops placed by the little shorts. The total lot quantity of these buy stops likely exceeded the total lot quantity of the longs that the rich traders needed to take to run the market up. So they exit their longs at a profit, and then take on a larger quantity of shorts at an excellent price which is unlikely to lose in the near-term. The market falls according to its own natural harmonics, and voila, big money made again.

This would not happen if people didn't use stops. The market would not have spiked up and then back down as it did. That particular market action was 100% Stop Running, NOT harmonics. Harmonics took over again after the side trip was done.

So my current belief is simply that dying from a thousand paper cuts is still dead. People are so worried about getting their head chopped off that they inflict a lethal dose of paper cuts upon themselves, all the while thinking they are being 'practical'. I have analyzed my prior trading of past years, and I found that over 60% of my losses need not have occurred and were caused entirely by stops. Yes, the market rebounded after my stops were hit and my original trade idea often worked perfectly, except that I was stopped out. I would have never have lost any money, overall, if I had simply never used stops. And this was in agro futures. They trend a lot. Currencies are mean-reverting and so they almost always bounce back, even if they go far against you. All the more reason to NOT use stops - the market will come back if you just wait, unless you are just dead wrong on the trade. If you are dead wrong on the trade, get out because you decided to get out, not because of a stop forced you out.

I recognize that this opinion is 100% opposite of what I am supposed to think, and it would be improper for me to advise any clients to do such a thing if I was involved with them anymore. But the facts are the facts, and the facts work. Stops are industry misinformation designed to disadvantage the public under the guise of safety. Real traders are like real poker players: risk is normal and not scary. If you cannot become comfortable with risk you cannot ever win.

As long as you never take on too big a position, and trade a few markets with low cross-correlation, I think that stops can be forgotten in almost all cases. I trade off 1 min charts. There is nothing that can happen that fast that I won't be able to respond to. I know how fast and how far the market can move - I trade on those fast moves! They are opportunities, not dangers.

Anyway, I would be very interested to hear what you think about this.
  • #7,430
  • Jan 12, 2014 9:56pm Jan 12, 2014 9:56pm
Quoting iak
Interesting thread. Only on page 4. Are there any pages I can jump to to catch up a little faster?
This link will be very useful, the secret is in the whole, none of the parts is more than the whole.
For that reviews all the material and see a new way of looking at the market.
regards
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=403393&page=2Very
  • #7,431
  • Jan 13, 2014 2:21am Jan 13, 2014 2:21am
Quoting kumaramy
GBPJPY Aggressive C LONG : Comments : Price found support at 170.84. B is 61% of XA and C is 61% of AB which expects Gartely pattern. Entry 171.53. SL below 170.84 Target 173.93 {image}
SL hit.
-milkeyway
  • #7,432
  • Jan 13, 2014 3:09am Jan 13, 2014 3:09am
Hi. Does anybody happen to have a video or document describing how to draw the zones the Seiden way?
Seems like whoever posted it in the past for some reason those links were (had to be) removed from their sites.
I imagine some of you might have those in their collection and could share it here or privately?
Thanks.
  • #7,433
  • Jan 13, 2014 4:19am Jan 13, 2014 4:19am
Quoting Starry
{quote} Heres a pdf i made a while ago, I hope you find it useful. I find myself often looking at mr pips charts, in the pdf, just to practice sometimes also to get inspired. There's some new ones that came after I made it that I haven't included, but not many. The last page is also good, its about getting tick data and setting up ninjatrader. And the next best two resources are mr pips videos. The first link is his newest stuff, and the second link is from early on in the thread. Its fun and it can be really profitable! Have fun http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw8CjBPrQlRH7jbiRbQcc1w/videos...

Thanks, appreciate that.
  • #7,434
  • Jan 13, 2014 6:44am Jan 13, 2014 6:44am
Quoting Fractalist
{quote} Hello Mr. Pip, Thank you for starting this thread and for your insights. I have a problem with stops. I understand the conventional wisdom and I have lived by it in all my prior trading expeditions. When I worked at a brokerage in the '80s & '90s, I advised my clients to use stops always. I get it. But my research now indicates that stops don't do what people think they do. They don't actually reduce risk, when used as most people use them. They increase risk. I believe that a huge factor of market action is stop-running behavior. The folks...

Interesting!
Yes I know exactly what you're saying and agree....mostly.
I have traded successfully with out a stop loss but you have to do that with a small position to control risk. You will win most of the time if you're willing to wait for the market to come back to you. Sometimes that can be weeks or months. Problem is you usually take small profits because of the small position and when you finally loose the big one you loose all of your profits and more.
If a trader is going to trade the smaller time frames, as most of us do here, he has to trade a full position because he's going for smaller pips other wise he wont make a living.
I usually don't enter a SL, I exit on my own. You have to have great discipline to do that.

There's is strategies out there that with sound money management you can trade without a SL but I think you need a large account to do so.
For what is being taught here a SL is a must and with proper entry there should be minimal stop hunting. The successful trader learns to accept loses as part of trading.
Barry
  • #7,435
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:32am Jan 13, 2014 7:32am
heres my longer term possibility on yen
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and short term

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and heres euro
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  • #7,436
  • Jan 13, 2014 7:51am Jan 13, 2014 7:51am
Quoting FineForex
heres my longer term possibility on yen {image} and short term {image} and heres euro {image}

Gm Fine,
I'm looking at getting short the EU.
Strong momentum down thru my PRZ (I was looking long in the grey area) so now with the NSL it looks like it wants to go south!
If it retraces to @1.3652-55 I'll take a short. Not lookin like it will go there as I write.
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Barry
  • #7,437
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:13am Jan 13, 2014 8:13am
Quoting Bary
{quote} Gm Fine, I'm looking at getting short the EU. Strong momentum down thru my PRZ (I was looking long in the grey area) so now with the NSL it looks like it wants to go south! If it retraces to @1.3652-55 I'll take a short. Not lookin like it will go there as I write. {image}
I feel you, long term momentum has slowed from last swing and short term momentum has increased to the downside

technically this could be a Higher Low perhaps, im still working on this part of my analysis for overall trend change
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  • #7,438
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:40am Jan 13, 2014 8:40am
Quoting FineForex
heres my longer term possibility on yen {image} and short term {image} and heres euro {image}
I got in long on the usd/jpy at the round number looking to ride it up to 103.27
  • #7,439
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:44am Jan 13, 2014 8:44am
Quoting dpaulinla
{quote} I got in long on the usd/jpy at the round number looking to ride it up to 103.27
nice I took that as well after 2 successful shorts. this could be its turning point tho
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  • #7,440
  • Jan 13, 2014 8:44am Jan 13, 2014 8:44am
Quoting dpaulinla
{quote} I got in long on the usd/jpy at the round number looking to ride it up to 103.27

I am waiting for short from there.
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