I appreciate you taking the time to fully explain your points.
I think the contradiction was inferred as a consequence of me not being clear around the distinction between the visible origin of a move (i.e the charts) and the lower time frames themselves (m1/m5/m15 etc), I can see how these could be mistaken for one another as essentially the lower time frames are all we have to identify the origin of a new move or theme visually. I can't say I disregard time frames completely when trading because I do put some value in looking at a daily chart to get an idea of the prevailing theme, to me this is the current consensus. I feel once all the noise is filtered out through the intra day action, it's the daily bar which helps me get a rough idea of the prevailing sentiment or theme.
What I was trying to say previously is that I don't agree with the intra day logic of negating a trading entry when a higher time frame contradicts the direction in which your trading idea suggests, I think this is what you said you do. Personally, If I feel that this time next month, the dollar will be weaker on the back of my analysis then I will look to short the dollar regardless of the short term bias or direction.
I don't agree that past price action is all we have to work with when deciding where the market might be heading. In my opinion past data should be used lightly, especially intra day movement which is of little value when looking forward because of the economic releases and other activity generating noise throughout the day. Support and Resistance levels are a common "looking to the past" paradox that retail traders face, technical traders see them as mighty barriers containing price movement to be respected but to me they don't exist, they don't exist because the global economy which drives the instruments traded has no knowledge of price points drawn on a chart, supply and demand (the real type as in economic activity) is what moves prices and if your analysis anticipates that in future more demand will exist or less supply and you are right... then prices will rise as a consequence of this regardless of previous resistance levels. The opposite will happen if you anticipate correctly that supply will increase or demand weaken. Anticipated supply & demand is an extremely valuable form of analysis if not the most important in my opinion, it also helps influence sentiment, if things are looking good then demand should increase and the opposite for things not looking so good. I'm not saying you can use this analysis to reliably predict the future, that would be absurd. I am however advocating the use of supply & demand analysis with some sentiment analysis over past price action (technical analysis) alone.
I think the contradiction was inferred as a consequence of me not being clear around the distinction between the visible origin of a move (i.e the charts) and the lower time frames themselves (m1/m5/m15 etc), I can see how these could be mistaken for one another as essentially the lower time frames are all we have to identify the origin of a new move or theme visually. I can't say I disregard time frames completely when trading because I do put some value in looking at a daily chart to get an idea of the prevailing theme, to me this is the current consensus. I feel once all the noise is filtered out through the intra day action, it's the daily bar which helps me get a rough idea of the prevailing sentiment or theme.
What I was trying to say previously is that I don't agree with the intra day logic of negating a trading entry when a higher time frame contradicts the direction in which your trading idea suggests, I think this is what you said you do. Personally, If I feel that this time next month, the dollar will be weaker on the back of my analysis then I will look to short the dollar regardless of the short term bias or direction.
I don't agree that past price action is all we have to work with when deciding where the market might be heading. In my opinion past data should be used lightly, especially intra day movement which is of little value when looking forward because of the economic releases and other activity generating noise throughout the day. Support and Resistance levels are a common "looking to the past" paradox that retail traders face, technical traders see them as mighty barriers containing price movement to be respected but to me they don't exist, they don't exist because the global economy which drives the instruments traded has no knowledge of price points drawn on a chart, supply and demand (the real type as in economic activity) is what moves prices and if your analysis anticipates that in future more demand will exist or less supply and you are right... then prices will rise as a consequence of this regardless of previous resistance levels. The opposite will happen if you anticipate correctly that supply will increase or demand weaken. Anticipated supply & demand is an extremely valuable form of analysis if not the most important in my opinion, it also helps influence sentiment, if things are looking good then demand should increase and the opposite for things not looking so good. I'm not saying you can use this analysis to reliably predict the future, that would be absurd. I am however advocating the use of supply & demand analysis with some sentiment analysis over past price action (technical analysis) alone.
Disliked{quote} After re-reading this post and the one prior, it seems you are contradicting yourself a bit. It would be helpful to know what TF's you find to be relevant and useful to trade (ignoring trading news) and if you honestly will just pick a TF (only daily?), wait until you see a signal and then put on a trade without checking the higher and lower TF's? With technology making it so easy to review various TF's and compare them, it seems odd to specifically avoid doing that comparison. It's almost like not wanting to see whether the higher or lower...Ignored
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